搜索
’sAlmanac•FocusonContent•43rdStockTrader’sAlmanac•4thCommodityTrader’sAlmanac•AlmanacInvestor:Web,Alerts,Blog,Twitter,LinkedIn•BrandNewRevampedSite&e-Delivery•ETFLab•AlmanacInvestorBookSeries•Thosewhostudymarkethistoryareboundtoprofitfromit.•4-YearPresidentialElectionCycle•Seasonality•War&TheMarkets•RecurringPatterns•CurrentTrends•Fundamentals•Technicals•MarketInternals•Economy“EarlyinMarch(1960),Dr.ArthurF.Burnscalledonme…Burns’conclusionwasthatunlesssomedecisiveactionwastaken,andtakensoon,wewereheadingforanothereconomicdipwhichwouldhititslowpointinOctober,justbeforetheelections.”—RichardM.Nixon(37thU.S.President,SixCrises,1913-1994)•177-YearSaga•Gov’tManipulatesEconomy•PrimePump3rdYear•Mostgainsin2ndhalfofterm•Post&MidtermBearMarkets•DirtyWorkEarly*Basedonannualclose;Priorto1886basedonCowlesandotherindices;12MixedStocks,10Rails,2Industrials1886-1889;20MixedStocks,18Rails,2Industrials1890-1896;Railroadaverage1897(FirstindustrialaveragepublishedMay26,1896)DJIAAverageAnnual%Gain(1833-2009)*2.0%4.0%10.5%5.8%0%2%4%6%8%10%12%Post-ElectionMid-TermPre-ElectionElection•NoBottom1986&2006•CycleIsBack•BottomPickersParadise•1934Dow–23%Feb-July•WorseforDemocratsDJIAAverageAnnual%Gain(1941-2009)4.5%5.6%16.6%4.7%0%3%6%9%12%15%18%Post-ElectionMid-TermPre-ElectionElection•18Bull&BearsSince1953•Only5BottomsinPre-orElection•8Tops•MidtermWorstforDemocrats•DemsReclaimAfterEconDuress4-YearCyclePost-ElectionMid-TermPre-ElectionElectionBeginningElectedPresidentYearYearYearYearTotals1953*Eisenhower(R)–3.844.020.82.31957Eisenhower(R)–12.834.016.4–9.31969*Nixon(R)–15.24.86.114.61973Nixon(R)***–16.6–27.638.317.91981*Reagan(R)–9.219.620.3–3.71985Reagan(R)27.722.62.311.81989G.H.W.Bush(R)27.0–4.320.34.22001*G.W.Bush(R)–7.1–16.825.33.12005G.W.Bush(R)–0.616.36.4Total%Gain–10.692.6156.240.9279.1Average%Gain–1.210.317.45.18.0#Up269623#Down7302121961*Kennedy(D)**18.7–10.817.014.61965Johnson(D)10.9–18.915.24.31977*Carter(D)–17.3–3.14.214.91993*Clinton(D)13.72.133.526.01997Clinton(D)22.616.125.2–6.22009*Obama(D)18.8Total%Gain67.4–14.695.153.6182.7Average%Gain11.2–2.919.010.79.1#Up525415#Down13015Total%Gain56.878.0251.394.5480.6Average%Gain3.85.618.07.38.7#Up78141039#Down860317*Partyinpowerousted,**Deathinoffice,***Resigned,D—Democrat,R—Republican,¹BasedonannualcloseMARKETACTIONUNDERREPUBLICANS&DEMOCRATSSINCE1953Annual%ChangeinDowJonesIndustrialAverage¹REPUBLICANSBOTHPARTIESDEMOCRATS•OftenDuringCrisis•2009PaidRightAway•MayPayAgainin2010•UnmetPromises•9of14BearsSince1961EndedinMidtermBottomRecordSince19611962Kennedy(D)BottomsinJuneandOctober.1966Johnson(D)BottominOctober.1970Nixon(R)BottominMay.1974Nixon,Ford(R)DecemberDowbottom,S&PbottominOctober.1978Carter(D)Marchbottom,despiteOctobermassacrelater.1982Reagan(R)BottominAugust.1986Reagan(R)Nobottomin1985or1986.1990Bush(R)BottomOctober11(KuwaitiInvasion).1994Clinton(D)BottomApril4after10%drop.1998Clinton(D)October8bottom(Asiancurrencycrisis,hedgefunddebacle)2002Bush,GW(R)October9bottom(Corpmalfeasance,terrorism,Iraq)2006Bush,GW(R)NoBottomin2006(Iraqsuccess,creditbubble)•Median=50.6%•High=89.6%•Low=14.5%•6JanMidtermLows(25%)•4OctMidtermLows(16.7%)•PlusOctLowsin1962,1974,1978,1998•9DecPre-ElectHighs(37.5%)•6HighsLastDay(16.7%)DowDow%Gain1Jul301914*52.32Dec27191599.2189.6%2Jan151918**73.38Nov31919119.6263.03Jan101922**78.59Mar201923105.3834.14Mar301926*135.20Dec311927202.4049.75Dec161930*157.51Feb241931194.3623.46Jul261934*85.51Nov191935148.4473.67Mar311938*98.95Sep121939155.9257.68Apr281942*92.92Jul141943145.8256.99Oct91946163.12Jul241947186.8514.510Jan131950**196.81Sep131951276.3740.411Jan111954**279.87Dec301955488.4074.512Feb251958**436.89Dec311959679.3655.513Jun261962*535.74Dec181963767.2143.214Oct71966*744.32Sep251967943.0826.715May261970*631.16Apr281971950.8250.616Dec61974*577.60Jul161975881.8152.717Feb281978*742.12Oct51979897.6121.018Aug121982*776.92Nov2919831287.2065.719Jan2219861502.29Aug2519872722.4281.220Oct111990*2365.10Dec3119913168.8434.021Apr419943593.35Dec1319955216.4745.222Aug311998*7539.07Dec31199911497.1252.523Oct92002*7286.27Dec31200310453.9243.524Jan20200610667.39Oct9200714164.5332.8*BearMarketended**BearpreviousyearAverage49.2%%ChangeinDowJonesIndustrialsBetweenMidtermYearLow&HighInFollowingYearMidtermYearLowDateofLowPre-ElectionYearHighDateofHigh•SpecialFeaturein2010STA•LongerRecoveryTimeLikely,Already2.5Years•But50%MovecouldgiveusNewHigh