消费条件模型和各地区消费条件指数《经济研究》513-21

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(100038):,,,,,:20,,,20,2090,,9040%9090,,,,,,,,:C=f(Y)(1),C,Y,:C=A+Y(2),A,;,YC,A,,(2)C,,:1.,3120045,,,,,,(),,,2.,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,(),,,,,,,,,,,,CY,(2)A,,,;,(2)A,,,,C,C,,:1)Xj=X1,X2,,Xn(j=1,2,n),,41:2),()Xj(2),AXj()Xj(2),:C=A(X1,X2,Xn)+(X1,X2,Xn)Y(3)3),,,(3):C=X0+j6nj=1Xj+Y(4),(4),(2)C=A+Y,j=0(4),X0+j6nj=1Xj(4)XjY,C,,(),,,,Xj,(4):rds::,Phds::,Pport::,Ppower::,tel::cpt::,card::,,ugini::rgini::pen::lm::ur::Di:30PP,;,i1,0,t,,,,,,:expit=a1incit+a2uginiit+a3rginiit+a4cptit+a5telit+a6cardit+a7lmit+a8penit+a9urit+a10portit+a11rdsit+biiDit+it(5)30:exp:(),P;inc:(5120045),P;:;t:;i:(1-30),,,19962001(paneldata),30,180:;:;:,,,,(4),,(4)i[(5)a2-a11bi,(5)a1],,,,(fixedeffectmodel)R2(within)0.969,(1)R-sq:within=0.9695Numberofobs=180Between=0.9406Numberofgroups=30Overall=019415Obervationpergroup=61TInc014102719103rds76314314653port7165211239tel6111611488cpt56102411733card59819215353ugini-65129-01364rgini-61136-01406pen6019001223lm153801689ur1275413033:t31%:11,5(1%),:1.,;;,2.,,;,,3.,,61:,,22001()30463046100%28119213%402016495411%P161630127621019619%P111298614218%P151589513311%P2111411814319%P010492912110%01281-1814-016%01317-1914-016%P012091217014%P0107211010316%P01421537131716%235717%:P16163,,(),2()2,119213%,717%,,5411%,103812%10,1716%(917%)(710%)(316%)(-112%)(110%)(014%)(5)ajbi,,(CFI),,P,,313071200451(2001),(),i,iCFI:CFIi=6nj=1jXkjP(6nj=1jXj)max100(6)(6)100,i(6nj=1jXj)max,Xj(CFSI)i,jXjCFSI:CFSIij=jXijPjXjmax100(7)CFICFSI,,12001CFI,,3CFSI,,,10:1.CFI,,2.,81:3(2001)1439401501230560145832719015014166001367515350135961443013967137301457812540146091148014111010230140411989013331297501451139130138314874013961584001359168300141817799013851877101377197560137520755014112175201375227510139223750014242474801359257000136826699013462763801412286130136729576013613053901371:(2002)3.CFI,,,4.CFI,,,,,5.,CFICFI,5,CFI,,,CFICFI,?1,,12%,539,4394(3)3,,50%;,37%,,,,91200454(2001):6730877023269352-16-18291941013490578344721127618-19-18297491820713091283358-17-19912033420602480795023-19-19121084942387650683828-18-2714465583078329571269319-18-222462702286724109670158-18-23172968427681540925641-19-2319256797772517161523468595-17-1339821157338411122117949-20-191212054450701528614818788-18-18112616372138202062379-18-1467739039061349313312414-18-1973436312161184064264-18-178623882878231611019720-18-191113552818772730702915-18-18710029727951510667532-18-17126554927241650677410-20-17882379532913712513428720-20-1818275701254014610535814-19-1759135925428263814523-21-20146251125759706710211-17-1771174322431750486711-21-18613545317371190343917-19-1731083552018690513611-15-22514329821411770714610-20-209654111759650592510-17-217753352115190562934-18-2496544322661930773634-19-2410804442369210784538-19-2316103492:(2002),(CFSI)4,CFSI4,(),,1000,,30002:,,,,,,,;,,:,,,,,,,,,ConsumptionFacilityModelandProvincialConsumptionFacilityIndexesFanGang&WangXiaolu(NationalEconomicResearchInstitute,ChinaReformFoundation)Abstract:InthisstudyweconstructaConsumptionFacilityModeltoinvestigatetheimpactofvariousfactorsonpercapitaconsumptioninChina1Theeconometricaloutcomeofthemodelindicatesthatthelevelofurbanizationisthemostinfluentialnon-incomefactoronpercapitaconsumption1Transportandtelecommunicationfacilitieshaveimportantimpactsonconsumption1Theprevalenceofbankcards(and,possibly,thecoverageofthepensionsystemandtheleveloflabourmobility)alsohaspositiveimpacts1Incomedisparity,indicatedbyGinicoefficients,mayhavenegativeimpactonpercapitaconsumption1Basedontheempiricalestimates,weestablishaProvincialConsumptionFacilityIndextoratetheconditionsofconsumptionfacilitiesinChinasprovinces1Thisindexwillbeusefulforindicatingthetrendofconsumptionvariationindifferentprovinces1KeyWords:ConsumptionModel;RegionalConsumption;ChinaJELClassification:E270,D120(:)(:)1220045

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