证券投资学股票投资

WillChineseStockMarketsMirrortheBehaviouroftheNASDAQ?-Whereisthesolution?ChristopherPollChairman,GreaterChinaConsultancyLtd.,3QUESTIONSRAISED•HOWTODEFINEA“WELLREGULATEDMARKET”?•WHATRELEVANCEAPRICE/EARNINGSRATIO?•IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCKMARKET,WHYAREDEVELOPEDMARKETSSOVOLATILE?HOWTODEFINEA“WELLREGULATEDMARKET”?TheFinancialMarketsareDynamic•Businessis“Proactive”•ButRegulatorsare“Reactive”not“Proactive•TheSystemofRegulationandEnforcementcanneverbecompletelyFlexibleandDynamic•ImportanceofFiduciaryResponsibilityFinancialInfrastructureMAINFACTORSFORFUNDSGovernmentFinancialPolicemenInstitutionalManagersCentredaroundPublicInvestors23GovernmentRegulatorsandCentralBankFinancialPolicemenareadvisorsto(FollowandabidebyRules&Regulations)InvestorsInstitutionalQuotedCompaniesAccountants-PensionsonStockMarketLawyers-InsuranceCo.(life)and-MutualFundsPrivatisedIndustriesMerchantBanksPrivateInvestorPreviouslyNationalisedCommercialBanks-Direct-IndirectStockMarketPRIVATESECTORLawyersAccountantsInvestmentBankersStockBrokersCommercialBanksConflictofInterest?ConflictofInterest•Whoistheclient?•WhoaretheFinancialPolicemanResponsibleto?•CanRegulationbeProtectwithFinancialPolicemenbeingProactive?INVESTORSInstitutionalPrivatePensionsInsuranceMutualFundsInvestors’Confidence=Investors’EducationConfidenceEducationInvestorsInvestorProtection/ConfidenceTransparencyEducationInformation/ReportingAnalysisAccuracyofDataDisclosureTimelinessCompetetion=Accountability•Easierandmoreeffectiveenforcement.•Increasedefficiencyreducescosts.•Improvedflexibilityoftheinfrastructuretorespondeffectivelyandcompetitively.EfficientInfrastructureTransparencyAccountabilityLeadsto:AChineseTailorMadeSolutionfortheChineseFundIndustryInvestors’behaviourStockInvestorsFundInvestorsSecuritiesDealersBrokersSecuritiesInvestmentAdvisorsFundManagersSecuritiesExchangeOTCFuturesExchangeSEC/CSRCCBC/PBCWHATRELEVANCEAPRICE/EARNINGSRATIO?ChineseQuotedStocksCorporateProfits???NASDAQCorporateProfits???Confidence$$$1995-2000C$IFCONFIDENCEISLOWTHENMONEYFLOWISMINUTECONFIDENCE$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$IFCONFIDENCEISHIGHTHENMONEYFLOWISLARGEWhatistheCriteriaForInvesting?1.WhatdoyouthinkisthemostimportantinfluenceonthestockmarketinChinatoday?•Thehistoricbalancesheetsandprofitandlossaccountsofthequotedcompanies-6•Thefutureprospectsforcorporateearnings-10•Governmentpolicy-62•Govt.investigationintomalpractices15•TheoveralleconomicgrowthoftheChineseeconomy-27•China'sentryintotheWTO-82.Howdoyouasaninvestoranalysethefairvalueofthecompaniesyoubuy&sell?•Bypriceearningsratio-35•Byrelationshiptonetassetvale-5•Bythelatestrumour-58•Bythebusinesssectorthecompanyisinvolvedin-21•Bymultipleofsalesrevenue-93.Whatdoyouthinkshouldbetheaverageprospectivepriceearningsratiofornon-technologystocks?•under15times-0•15to25times-18•above25-1104.Whatdoyouthinkshouldbetheaverageprospectivepriceearningsratio?•under15times-0•15to25times-1•25to50-16•over50-1115.Howdoyoumeasureinvestmentrisk?•Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestock-31•Bymeasuringthevolatilityofthestockmarket-42•Byestimatingtheaccuracyofdisclosedinformation-16•Byestimatingtheriskoffraud-17•Byanalysinghistoricreturns-13•Bycomparingwithandadjustingforariskfreemeasuresuchasadepositrate-8AtwhatleveldoyouthinktheShanghaiAsharemarketwillbeon31stDecember2001?•mostthinkitwillbeabove2500•Todayitis2140AtwhatleveldoyouthinktheShanghaiBsharemarketwillbeon31stDecember2001?•mostthinkitwillbeabove200•Todayitis183IFINSTITUTIONALFUNDSAREASTABILISINGFACTORFORTHESTOCKMARKET,WHYAREDEVELOPEDMARKETSSOVOLATILE?FactorsEffectingInvestmentTimeHorizons•ConfidenceinLongTermTrends•ConfidenceinInformationDisclosure•VolatilityofMarkets•LiquidityofMarkets•ProfitForecast•PublicScrutinyofPerformanceEACM100:EqualWeighted(RebalancedAnnually)IndexofHedgeFundIndicesdescribedonPreviousSlideReturnandRiskTradeoff:1/1990-12/2000EACM100EventDrivenRelativeValueS&P/LehmanPort.GlobalMacroEquityHedgeLehmanBondS&P5000.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%20.0%25.0%0.0%5.0%10.0%15.0%AnnualizedStandardDeviationAnnualizedReturnRiskandReturnofStock,BondandHedgeFunds:1/1990-12/2000100%EACM10050%S&P500and50%Leh.Bros.Bond100%LehmanBond100%S&P5000.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%18.00%0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%PortfolioAnnualizedStandardDeviationPortfolioAnnualizedReturnChinaversusWesternMarkets•LimitedsenseofAccountability•LittleUnderstandingofRisk•ChineseBusinessPhilosophy•ReluctancetoIncentiviseExecutiveManagers•EntrepreneursUnderstandCause&Consequence•RiskisFullyUnderstood•ShareholderAccountabilityisaccepted•ShareOptionsandProfitIncentivesFUNDCOMPANYREGULATORPOLICEMENFUNDCUSTODIANBENEFICIARYCERTIFICATEINVESTORSASSETSMONEYBasicConceptofFundsasanInvestmentVehicle