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管理经济学陶志刚1企业战略定位Averageindustryperformance行业平均盈利状况Strategicpositioningbyindividualfirms业内企业的不同定位陶志刚2管理经济学ROE-KeSpread(15%)(10%)(5%)0%5%10%15%20%01002003004005006007008009001,0001,1001,2001,300AverageInvestedEquity($B)Toiletries/CosmeticsSteelPharmaceuticalsSoftDrinkTobaccoFoodProcessingHouseholdProductsElectricalEquipmentFinancialServicesSpecialtyChemicalsNewspaperBankIntegratedPetroleumTelecomRetailStoreTire&RubberElectricUtility-CentralElectricUtility-EastMedicalServicesMachineryAuto&TruckComputer&PeripheralPaper&ForestAirTransportSource:Compustat,ValueLine,MarakonAssociatesAnalysisAverageEconomicProfitsofU.S.IndustryGroups,1978-19961978至1996年美国各行业平均经济利润率ValueLineIndustryGroups陶志刚3管理经济学Source:Compustat,ValueLine,MarakonAssociatesAnalysisROE-KeySpread(30%)(20%)(10%)0%10%20%30%40%$0$1$2$3$4$5$6$7$8$9$10$11$12$13$14$15GreatNorthernIronWorthingtonIndsNucorSteelTechnologiesOregonMillsCommercialMetalsCarpenterBirminghamBritishSteelPLCCleveland-CliffsQuanexLukensACMEMetalsAmpcoUSX-USSteelInlandSteelArmcoWHXBethlehemAverageInvestedEquity($B)AverageEconomicProfitsofIndividualFirmsintheSteelIndustry,1978–19961978至1996年美国钢铁行业中各企业的平均利润率陶志刚4管理经济学Source:Compustat,ValueLine,MarakonAssociatesAnalysisROE-KeSpread(80%)(60%)(40%)(20%)0%20%40%60%$0$5$10$15$20$25$30SmithKlineGlaxoAmericanHomeProductsAmgenMerckScheringPloughWatsonBristolMyersRhone-PoulencMylanLabsWarnerLambertEliLillyPfizerPerrigoPharmacia&UpjohnForestLabsAlzaICNSchererIvaxGenetechBiogenRobertsGenzymeDuraChironCephalonGensiaCygnusImmunexAverageInvestedEquity($B)AverageEconomicProfitsofIndividualFirmsintheDrugIndustry,1978-19961978至1996年美国制药行业中各企业的平均利润率管理经济学陶志刚5ChineseFireworksIndustry中国烟花行业CaseStudy案例陶志刚6管理经济学Basicfeaturesoftheindustry行业基本情况Types:displayfireworksandconsumerfireworks/80%to20%in1999主要产品为烟花(80%)和鞭炮(20%)Mainingredientsbyweight:75%potassiumnitrate,15%charcoal,and10%sulfur主要原料为：75％硝酸钾；15％木炭；10％硫磺Lowtech,labor-intensive低技术含量、劳动密集型Lowinitialinvestment:RMBonemillionfordisplayfireworks,andlessthanRMB100,000forconsumerfirecrackersandfireworks初始投资低陶志刚7管理经济学Liuyang,Hunan湖南浏阳Clusters:LiuYang,LiLing(Hunan),Pingxiang,Wanzai(Jiangxi),Dongguan(Guangdong)生产地区集聚化Upto400,000peopleinLiuyangworkingintheindustry(1/3ofthepopulationinvolved)40万或者说三分之一人口从事烟花业500manufacturers,withonlyonestate-owned(morethan1,000workers),adozenmediumorlargeones(100-500workers)/only4or5openallyearround500多家工厂，其中最大的为国营，另外有十几家大中型厂家，只有四、五家为全年营运LiuYangcontributesto60%ofChina’sexports中国烟花出口的六成来自浏阳陶志刚8管理经济学Safetyissues安全问题Productionstage生产过程ConsumptionStage消费过程陶志刚9管理经济学Domesticmarket中国的烟花市场Economicgrowth经济增长Governmentpurchase政府采购Pollution/safetyissues污染及安全问题Competitionfromproducersinotherprovinces来自其他地区的竞争陶志刚10管理经济学Exportmarket出口市场Chinahas80-90%oftheworld’sfireworksmarket中国占全球烟花市场的八至九成Richinvariety,butlowinprice,duetopoorqualitycontrolandpackaging种类多，但因质量差、包装粗糙而价格低Partoftheverticalchain成为垂直生产链的一环陶志刚11管理经济学Questions投资决定WouldyouinvestinaLiuyangfireworksfactory?是否与浏阳烟花公司合资经营？HowattractiveistheChinesefireworksindustry?中国烟花行业的平均利润情况如何？陶志刚12管理经济学The“FiveForces”FrameworkforIndustryAnalysis“五种竞争力量”的行业分析框架潜在竞争者供应商行业现有竞争者替代品生产商购买者陶志刚13管理经济学PowerofBuyers购买者的砍价能力•Impactonquality/performance产品质量及性能•ProductdifferencesBrandidentity产品差异性品牌认同度SwitchingcostsSubstituteproduct客户转移成本替代产品•Buyerconcentration购买者的集中度Buyervolume购买量•Abilitytobackwardintegrate后向一体化的能力•Buyerinformation买方信息不对称程度陶志刚14管理经济学PowerofSuppliers供应商的砍价能力•Impactofinputsoncostordifferentiation•零部件对最终产品的重要程度•Substitutesuppliers要素替代品•Productdifferences产品差异性•Brandidentity品牌认同度•Switchingcosts客户转移成本•Supplierconcentration供应商的集中度•Suppliervolume供应量•Abilitytoforwardintegrate前向一体化的能力•buyerinformation买方信息不对称程度陶志刚15管理经济学DegreeofRivalry行业竞争程度•Concentration/行业集中程度•Productdifferences/产品差异性•Brandidentity/品牌认同度•Switchingcosts/客户转移成本•Industrygrowth/行业成长性•SunkCosts/沉没成本•Exitbarriers/退出障碍•Diversestakes/企业利益取向差异陶志刚16管理经济学EntryBarriers潜在竞争者的进入障碍•Costadvantages现有生产商的成本优势--Economiesofscale/scope规模及范围经济--Learningcurve学习曲线--Accesstonecessaryinputs必要生产要素的获得(includingcapitalandlabor)--Accesstodistribution营销渠道的获得•Productdifferences产品差异性Brandidentity品牌认同度Switchingcosts客户转移成本•Expectedretaliation行业现有竞争者的预期反应•Governmentpolicy政府政策陶志刚17管理经济学ThreatofSubstitution替代品的威胁•ThreatdependsonRelativeprice/performance替代品的性价比Switchingcosts客户转移成本•OftenanS-curveprocess威胁程度往往有漫长的成长过程管理经济学陶志刚181997and1999HongKongPropertyIndustry1997年前后的香港房地产行业CaseStudy案例陶志刚19管理经济学1997HKPropertyIndustry1997年香港房地产业In1997,39%oftheHKpopulationlivedinpublicrentalestatesand12%inhomeownershipschemeflats1997年，39%的香港人居住在政府建造并廉价出租的公屋里，另有12%生活在政府建造并低价出售的居屋里HKpropertyindustrywasdominatedbyafewfirms:CheungKong,Hutchison,Henderson,SHK,SWIRE,andHongKongLand香港房地产业受控于少数几家公司：长江实业集团，和记黄埔，恒基兆业，新鸿基，太古集团和香港置地Fuelledbygrowingdemand,andlimitedsupply,landvaluehadappreciatedrapidlyintheyearsrunningupto1997.需求膨胀，供应有限，导致地产在97之前的几年中疯狂涨价陶志刚20管理经济学1997HKpropertyindustryextremelyattractive1997年的香港房地产业赢利极高HendersonandSHKannouncedannualresultsfortheyearending30June,1997,inwhichtheirturnovertotaledHK$18.9billionandHK$28.9billionres