经济增长与经济周期

[EconomicGrowthTheoryandBusinessCyclesTheory][]·[]·2166151),(KLAfY=Y,L,KA2040,,,,:,,,Vs=GYYG∆=YSs=YIYKV∆==YIYSYY∆÷=∆YSYIYY=∆×∆YSYI=SI=AAAVsG=AGAsVArdWVsG=WGVdsr152rONVsG=NGVOsrNWAGGG==GGAWGGAWGG()WNGG()WNa——b——a+b=1LLbKKaYY∆+∆=∆)(LLKKaLLYY∆−∆=∆−∆=∆−∆LLYY=∆−∆LLKK——LLbKKaYY∆+∆+=∆λ)(LLKKaLLYY∆−∆+=∆−∆λ153YWPSspswsPWY+=WsPsSwp+=YWsYPsYSswp+==VYWsYPsVsGwpw+==pswspswsYPW+=1=+YWYP154[BusinessCycle][]19811338[]10198013381918609~10.19233-423~4192650-601817891849253560184915518962423471896241920193015-252019366409-1048-6018801842184218971897156[AcceleratorPrinciple]KYVVYK=11−−=ttVYKttVYK=)(11−−−=−ttttYYVKK0IKI∆=0YIYK∆=∆∆=0VItItdttt0t)(110−−−=−=tttttYYVKKIttttttdYYVdII+−=+=−)(10ttttdYYVI+−=−)(1V—IYKI∆∆=YIV∆=0KII∆=≠∆0—ttttGICY++=1−+=ttYCβα0β1ttttdCCVI+−=−)(1ttttttGdCCVYY++−++=−−)(11βα1570=α5.0=β,1=V0=td)(1=tG—tCtGtI0tYt10.00000001.000.00000001.00000020.50000001.000.50000002.00000031.00000001.000.50000002.50000041.25000001.000.25000002.50000051.25000001.000.00000002.25000061.12500001.00-0.12500002.00000071.00000001.00-0.12500001.87500080.93750001.00-0.06250001.87500090.93750001.000.00000001.937500100.96875001.000.03125002.000000111.00000001.000.03125002.031250121.01562501.000.01562502.031250131.01562501.000.00000002.015625141.00781251.00-0.00781252.0000001.2.3.4.5.6.7.158