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經濟學與經濟學人的挑戰美國的貨幣改策為例ChallengetoEconomics/EconomistsThecaseofUSmonetarypolicy國立臺灣大學經濟學系演講華而誠教授世新大學管理學院經濟系2005.10.20Outline大綱•EconomicshasbecomethemostpopularmajorintheuniversitiesoftheUnitedStatesandwhy?•Butthisdoesnotsayeconomicsisaneasyscience.Onthecontrary,economicshasnevermetgreaterchallengesasittriestoaddressanincreasingarrayofquestionspostedbyrapidtechnologicalprogressandtheintegrationofglobalmarkets(globalization).TheconductoftheUSmonetarypolicyisacaseinpoint.I.FactsaboutpopularityofEconomics•U.S.collegesanduniversitiesawarded16,141degreestoeconomicsmajorsinthe2003-2004academicyear,upnearly40%fromfiveyearsearlier;•EconomicsisthemostpopularmajoratHarvardUniversity,ColumbiaUniversity,UniversityofChicago,andotherwell-knownschools;and•Therisingpopularityoftheeconomicsmajorappearstobeaglobalphenomenon:theshareofdegreesineconomicsandbusinessawardedinPolandfrom1996to2002morethandoubled,to36%from16%;inRussia,thesharejumpedto31%from18%(McKinseyGlobalInstitute).Why,thepopularity?•Wideapplicationofeconomicstoissuesofsocietalconcerns:–inflation,economicgrowth,equity公平;–sustainabledevelopment可持續發展;–economicglobalization全球化,immigration;–competitiveness競爭力;–de-regulation(power,telecom,banking);–AIDs,terrorism,corruption,sumowrestling,etc,(“Freakonomics,”StevenLevitt,UniversityofChicago);•Economics’modeofreasoningcanhelptoanalyzeawiderangeofissues(HarvardUniversityPresident,Mr.Summers);•Itistheworldwearecurrentlyoperatinginneedsthebasicframeworkofeconomics,eventhoughlearningitcanbeveryfrustrating;and,ofcourse,•Goodpayaftergraduation;jobnotthreatenedbyChinaandIndia.II.Challengetoeconomics•Economictheoryisbuiltuponthepast“regularity”asmuchasthelawsinnaturalsciences.However,economicsisanimperfectsciencesinceitsobjectofstudy-humaneconomicbehavior–evenpresumedtoberationale,whichhasbeenchallengedlately,cannotbemodeledandpredictedwithprecision.Rapidstructuralchangeandtechnologicalprogress,andtheintegrationofglobalmarketsrendereconomicbehaviorevenmoredifficulttopredict.Thelackofpredictivepowertiltseconomicstowardanart,awayfromscience.Challengetoeconomistsisgreater•Ifeconomicshasitsshortcomings,itsapplicationbyeconomistsisevenmoretreacherous.“Economicprinciples”oftendoesnotdelvemuchintothe“politicaleconomy”orthe“nitty-gritty”detailsthatcannotbeavoidedatthestageofitsapplication.“Thedevilsareinthedetails”,ifnotalways.•Goodargumentsdonotnecessarilymakegoodeconomicpolicies.Thisputseconomistsatrisk.Forinstance,privatization民營化(e.g.,第二次金融改革、BOT)hasanobleobjective,butitsimplementationisquiteanother:casesoffailureabound.Russiaistheworsecase.Anexample:IsthepracticingoftheUSmonetarypolicyanart?•“Discretion”選擇winsoverthe“Rule”法則intheolddebate?•Whatrules?(anythingbutconstant…)•Taylor’srule泰勒定律•“naturalrate”ofunemployment自然失業率•“neutralrate”ofinterest中性利率HasGreenspanlostmonetarycontrol?FFRratehasbeenraisedsinceJune2004Thelong-ratefellratherthanrose–Greenspan’sconundrumAflattenedyieldcurve:absenceofriskpremium(abondbubble?)Ahousingboom(orbubble)?Householdsextractedequityinthehundredsofbillions(whynot?)-tosupportconsumptionthatledtoaplunginginthesavingrateThegovernmentalsowentforaspendingsplurgeShortageinsavingresultedinmacroeconomicimbalance-andthedeclineinthedollar…CausesofGreenspan’sconundrum•BrettonWoodsII:foreignbuyingoftreasuries,centralbanksfromAsiainparticular,accountedfor0.5%to2.0%ofthedeclineintherateonthe10-yeartreasuries,todefusecurrencyappreciation.Aglobal“savingglut”–weakinvestment--accountsfortheUScurrentaccountdeficit;theUSisnottoblame?•Investorsandspeculatorshaveimprudentlyoptedforriskyassets(realestate,bond),duetothelowvolatilitiesinthefinancialmarket.Taiwan:aGreenspanianconundrum?0.0000.5001.0001.5002.0002.5003.0002003.III2003.IV2004.I2004.II2004.III2004.IV2005.I2005.IIInterbankCall-loanRate(overnight)...................GovermentBondYield(10-year).........................Taiwan:enjoyedalargesavingsurplusbutnomoreasinvestmentrecovered0.05.010.015.020.025.019981999200020012002200320042005.I2005.IIInvestment/GDP%Tradebalance/GDP%Implications?•TheUSeconomyisinanun-charteredterritory.Why?•Itsdynamismrestsonconsumptiongrowththat,inturn,hingesonthewealtheffect財富效果,orrather,thebubble泡沬effect,withincomerelegatedtoaminusculerole.•Sincethepriceofassetcannotincreaseforever,theUSeconomicimbalanceisnotsustainable可持續,unlessincomepicksup.•Unfortunately,wedon’thaveaclearcluetotheimportantquestion:–WilltherestorationoftheUSeconomicbalancetriggerarecessionoramuchmorepleasantsoft-landing軟著路?•Preparefortherainydays:Thewealth-intoxicatedUSeconomy,thegloballocomotive,couldjeopardizethehealthoftheglobaleconomy.Taiwanneedstofurtherstrengthendomesticdemand,preferablyinvestment.•Implicationforeconomics:–weneedtopaymoreattentiontothewealtheffectinexplainingsaving/consumptionbehaviorandperhapseveninvestmentbehaviorsincethewealtheffectisnotsoexceptionalafterall(seenext).Permanentincomeandlife-cyclehypothesesofsaving/consumptionarestillrelevantbutnotalways.Isthewealtheffectsoexceptional?•Canacapitalistmarketeconomybeexemptedfromthebubbleattacks?Orisitde