经济学人读译The silent majority沉的大多数

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Thesilentmajority沉默的大多数ArarelookinsideaChinesevillage中国乡村一瞥Apr7th2005|BEIHEVILLAGE,SHANDONG|fromtheprintedition2005年4月7日|山东北河村|打印版INAcountrywhere800mpeople,about60%ofthepopulation,liveinthecountrysideonanaverageincomeoflessthanadollaraday,ruralbackwardnessweighsheavilyonthemindsofChina'sleadersastheydreamofjoiningtheranksoftheworld'sleadingeconomies.AndinacountrywhoseCommunistPartycametopoweronthebackofapeasantrebellion,distantmemoriesofthevehemenceofruraldiscontentarousefearsthatunlesssomethingisdonetomakepeasantshappier,Chinawillbeplungedintoturmoil.ToassessChina'sfuture,itiscrucialtounderstandthecountryside.Butitisnoteasy.中国总人口的60%,即8亿人口,生活在农村,日收入不足一美元。中国的领导人希望跻身世界发达国家的行列,农村的落后问题是他们的一大心病。共产党之所以能统治这个国家,是以农民的暴动为基础的。农民的不满所引发的愤怒虽然已成为久远的历史,但还是引起了领导层的恐慌。如果不设法使农民得到满足,中国将再次陷入动乱。想评估中国的未来,了解其农村的状况至关重要,然而绝非易事。DespiteChina'sincreasingopennesstopryingforeigneyes,thedynamicsofvillageliferemainhiddenaway.AlthoughtheChinesemediareportextensivelyonruralproblems,foreignjournalistsrequiregovernmentapprovaltoconductinterviewsinthecountryside(asindeed,intheory,theydoforanyoff-basereportinginChina).Foreigncorrespondentscanoftengetawaywithconductingunauthorisedinterviewsinthemorecosmopolitanurbanareas,butruralofficialsinvoketheruleswithfargreaterregularity,fearfulthatcriticalpressreportscoulddamagetheircareers.Thepresenceinavillageofanyoutsideraskingsensitivequestionscanquicklyarouseofficialattentionandoftenresultsindetention,theconfiscationofnotesandothermaterials,andorderstoleavetheareaimmediately.尽管中国在外国看来越来越开放,其农村生活的状态还是不为人知。虽然中国的媒体经常报道农村问题,但国外记者需要得到政府许可才能去农村进行采访(理论上,其实这只适用于脱离实际的报道)。国外记者在大都市进行未授权的采访往往能侥幸得手,但农村的官员贯彻这一规定则更加严格,他们害怕批评性的媒体报道会阻碍他们的仕途发展。村里如果出现任何外人询问敏感问题,马上就会引起村里干部的注意,这些人通常都会被监禁,笔记和其他材料会被没收,然后被勒令马上离开。YourcorrespondentoriginallyaskedthegovernmentofShandongprovinceforpermissiontostayinavillagehehadvisitedwithofficialapprovalinthe1980s,butwasturneddown.Instead,theauthoritiesselectedthevillageofBeiheinZouping,aprosperouscountythatwasdesignatedbyChinainthelate1980sasanarea(thenalmosttheonlyone)opentoAmericanresearcherstodofieldwork.Itstilldelightsinitspropagandarole.Zouping'sbrochurecallsthecounty“awindowfortheUSandthewholeworldtogetanunderstanding”ofthecountryside.YanShengqin,Beihe'spartychiefatthetime,stillproudlydisplaysaframedpictureofJimmyCarterwithanarmaroundMrYan'sshouldersduringavisitin1997.上世纪80年代,一位记者一开始向山东省政府申请,允许自己在以前参观过的一个村子里呆上一段时间,但是未被批准。但是,政府推荐他去了邹平县的北河村。这是80年代中国政府规划的一个繁荣县城,作为向美国研究人员开放的实地调查地点(在那个时侯可能是唯一的)。邹平县的宣传册上称其为“向美国和全世界开放的窗口”,让外国人了解中国的农村。当时的北河村党委书记杨生勤还很骄傲地展示了一副裱好的照片。照片摄于1997年,当时吉米•卡特总统参观了该村,照片中,他一只手揽着杨书记的肩膀。Beihe's1,000villagersenjoyanetincomeperheadofaround5,000yuan($600)ayear—about70%morethanthenationalaverageand40%morethantheaverageforZouping.Ithasmorethan30privatelyownedfactoriesinactivitiesfromironforgingtofurnituremaking.Peasantsheresaytheywouldprefertokeeptheirrural-residencecertificates,arelicofaonce-rigidurban-ruralapartheidsysteminChinathatbarredpeasantsfrommovingtothecities.Nowtheyareallowedtomigratemorefreely.Butwhiletheurbansocial-securitysystemisintatters,mostcountry-dwellersarestillentitledtofarm(nottoown)asmallpatchoflandthatcanatleastkeepthemfromstarving.Beihe'svillagersprefertostayput—unliketensofmillionsofotherpeasantsforwhomeventheinsecurityandhardshipofurbanlifeisbetterthanruralpoverty.北河村有1000村民,人均年收入月5000元(合约600美元),比全国平均水平高出了70%,比邹平县平均水平高40%。村里有30多家私营企业,经营范围从炼铁到家具制造,应有尽有。这儿的农民说,他们宁愿保留农村户口。农村户口是曾经非常死板的中国城乡分离体系的产物,禁止农民向城市迁移。现在,农民有了更多的迁移自由,但是由于城市的社保体系非常不完善,许多农村居民还是只能靠耕种(不是占有)一小块土地来勉强保持温饱。北河村的村民选择了留在农村,而不像其他数百万农民那样,宁愿面对城市生活的危险和困难,也不愿意继续留在农村忍受贫困。Beihe'smobile-phone-owningpeasantsintheirnewlybuiltcourtyardhomeswithcabletelevisionand(inthecaseofatleast20households)privatecarsmaynotbethebest-placedpeopletogiveinsightsintotheruraldeprivationandinjusticethathavepromptedagrowingnumberofpeasantstoheadtobigcitiesinrecentyearstopetitiontheauthorities.(EvenmodelZoupinghad603suchpeasantsin2002and338in2003,comparedwithnoneatthebeginningofthedecade,accordingtocountyrecords.)Evenso,thevillagedoesillustratehowsweepingeconomicandpoliticalchangesinthepastquarter-centuryhavemadeChina'svillagesfarmoreindependentfromhigherauthority.Theyhavealsobecomefarmoredependentfortheirsuccessorfailureontheabilitiesoftheirownlocalleaders.InBeihe,asinmanyofChina's700,000villages,ancientclanshaveplayedanimportantpartinbothofthesechanges.北河村的村民都有手机,新盖的楼房外有场院,内有有线电视,至少20户人开上了私家车。近几年,因为土地被剥夺,遭受越来越多不公正待遇的农民进城上访。而仅看到北河村的人民生活,是无法洞察到这些的。(即使在模范县邹平县县志上也能看到,本年代初还没有农民上访,而2002年就有603名,2003年338名。)即使如此,北河村还是能反映出,过去25年的经济政治全面大改革如何使中国农村同高层政府愈加疏离。农村的繁荣或衰败越来越取决于本村村官的个人能力。北河村和中国其他70万个农村一样,古老的家族制在所有的变革中都起着十分重要的作用。TheZhang-Yanclans张家和杨家Therevivalofvillageclannismisamongtheparty'smanyworriesaboutitsgriponruralstability.InBeihe,morethanhalfofthevillagerssharethesurnameZhang.Amongtherest,Yanisthebiggestclan.TheYansandZhangsliveindistinctareasofthevillage.YanShengqin,theformerpartychief,happenstobeoneofthemostseniorwithinhisclan'spatrilinealhierarchy.Itistohim,hesays,thatYansturntohelpsortoutfamilydisputesorofficiateatweddingsorfunerals.KimF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