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Kanhedoit?菅直人，兼职人？Andthenextcontestant,please有请下一位Jun3rd2010|TOKYO|FromTheEconomistprinteditionINAcountrywhereonlyoneprimeministerhaslastedmorethanthreeyearsinthepast20(theuncharacteristicallycharismaticJunichiroKoizumi),peopleareunderstandablyblaséaboutwhowillbethenextmaninthetopjob.Thistimecouldbedifferent.IftheleadercanstepoutfromundertheshadowofJapan’slastold-fashionedfactionalboss,theDemocraticPartyofJapan’sIchiroOzawa,hecouldusherinanewsortofcoalitionpolitics,withthepotentialtobeeitherdisastrouslymessyorrefreshinglyclean.过去的20年内,日本的几任首相中只有一人（万人迷小泉纯一郎）的任期超过了三年。在这样的一个国家里，国民对首相一职花落谁家的问题心生厌烦也是可以理解的。不过这一次可能会与众不同。新任领导人如果能够摆脱受制于日本最后一位老派党首——民主党的小泽一郎的阴影，就可以迎来一个全新的联合政府。而摆在这一联合政府面前的有两条路:要么是不堪入目的混乱，要么是清风拂面的廉政。ThemostlikelysuccessorhaslongbeenNaotoKan,the63-year-oldfinanceministeranddeputyprimeminister.Hispedigreewouldmarkachangetothetopinitself.SinceMrKoizumiresignedin2006,Japanhashadfiveprimeministers,allofwhomhavebeeneitherthesonorgrandsonofaformerprimeminister.Ofunflashyorigin,thedoggedMrKanmadehisownwayupthepoliticalladder,gainingprestigeinthemid-1990swhen,ashealthminister,heexposedbureaucratswhoallowedthetransfusionofHIV-taintedbloodtohaemophiliacs.63岁的副首相兼财政大臣菅直人一直是继任首相人选里呼声最高的。首先他的出身就将改写日本高层政局。继2006年小泉纯一郎辞职之后，日本先后更换了五位首相，无一不顶着前首相子孙的光环。菅直人虽然出身卑微，但却能坚韧不拔地一路独闯政坛，节节高升。20世纪90年代中期，时任厚生大臣的菅直人将纵容给血友病患者输入带有艾滋病病毒的血液制品一事的官僚移送法办，此举使他声名鹊起。HehadlittlemacroeconomicexperiencebeforebeingappointedfinanceministerinJanuary,butgainedareputationamongtheministry’sbureaucratsasaquicklearner.Theywerethrilledthatheactuallylistenedtothem.Inthatjob,hehasstoodoutfortworeasons:hiswillingnesstobegindiscussing—albeitgingerly—ariseintheconsumptiontaxaspartofafiscaloverhaultoreduceJapan’scrushingdebtburden;andjustifiablecriticismoftheBankofJapanfornotdoingenoughtoenddeflation.菅直人在一月担任财政大臣之前，几乎没有过掌管过宏观经济，但在财政部的官员中，他却享有“一学就会”的美誉。财政部的官员对菅直人果真采取他们的意见感到兴奋不已。任财臣期间，菅直人凭借两点大放异彩：一是在如何将提高消费税作为整顿财政收入的一个环节，以达到减轻日本泰山压顶般的债务的问题上，他愿意展开讨论（纵然是谨小慎微）；二是直面日本银行在解决通货紧缩的问题上因力度不够遭受的正面批评。Buthehasonebigflaw.Whileinthecabinet,hemadenoattempttodistancehimselffromtheprimeministerorfromMrOzawawhentheywerebothcaughtupindebilitatingcampaign-fundingscandalsthatclobberedthegovernment’spopularstanding.“IfMrKanischosen,hemayhavethesameproblemthatMrHatoyamafaced.ThepublicmightconsiderhimtobeanotherpuppetofMrOzawa,”saysAkihikoTanaka,aprofessorofinternationalpoliticsattheUniversityofTokyo.HewouldneedtoshowthatherepresentsacleanbreakfromtheLDP-styleancienrégimeifdisillusionedvotersaretobepersuadedthattheDPJrepresentsarealchangefromthepast.但菅直人有一大弱点。在内阁时，在任首相与小泽一郎曾深陷政治献金的丑闻中，该丑闻大大降低了政府的支持率，但尽管如此，菅直人依然无意与首相或小泽一郎划清界限。“如果菅直人当选首相，他可能会面临与鸠山一样的问题。公众可能会将他视为小泽一郎的又一个傀儡。”东京大学国际政治教授AkihikoTanaka如是说道。如果要让心灰意冷的选民相信日本民主党将带来翻天覆地的变化，菅直人就必须向人们展示：他代表着与自民党式的腐朽政权的决绝。Globaleconomicpolicy全球经济政策Monetaryillusions货币政策的错觉Centralbankersarenotmagicians.Don’tcountonthemtoconjureupremediesifthericheconomiesflag央行银行家并不是魔法师。如果富裕经济体衰退，不要指望他们能够变出弥补措施。Sep2nd2010OVERthepastfewyearsthereputationsoftherichworld’scentralbankershavefluctuatedwildly.Whenthefinancialcrisisstruck,theywereblamedforallowingthehousingandcreditbubblestobuild,andforfailingtoforeseethebust.LatertheywerelionisedforpreventinganewDepressionwithboldactionstosupportthefinancialsystem.Nowathirdstageisathand,oneofdangerouslyoutsizedexpectations.在过去几年，富裕世界央行银行家的名声浮动很大。金融危机来临时，人们指责他们任由住房和信贷泡沫滋长，没有预测到破产。后来他们采取大胆行动支持金融体系，防止了新的大萧条，因而受到重视。如今第三阶段就在眼前，一项危险的过高期望。Withmostgovernmentsunable,orunwilling,tooffermorefiscalstimulus,centralbanksareleftsolelyresponsibleforproppinguptheflaggingrecovery.ThephenomenonismostobviousinAmerica.Itseconomyhasweakened,yetthedefaultpathforfiscalpolicyisaheftytighteningastheObamastimuluswanes,thestatesslashspendingtobalancetheirbudgetsandtheBushtaxcutsexpire.Withanydiscussionofremediesbypoliticiansdrownedoutbypartisanpositioningbeforethemid-termelectionsinNovember,disproportionatehopeispinnedonBenBernanke’sFederalReserve.HencetheattentionpaidtohisrecentspeechatJacksonHole,whichlaidout,withgreatconfidence,whatfurtherstepstheFedcouldtake.由于大多数政府不能或者不愿意提供更多的财政刺激，只剩下央行银行家为扶持乏力的复苏负责了。这种现象在美国最显著。美国经济已经疲软，但是随着刺激计划的消失，各州削减开支以平衡其预算和布什减税政策的到期，财政政策的违约路线是一项巨大的紧缩。由于政治家们对于弥补政策的任何讨论都被11月份中期选举之前的党派立场淹没，巨大的希望落在了本•伯南克的美联储上。因此，他最近在杰克逊荷尔发表的演说受到了关注，他的演说充满自信，详细地阐述了美联储可以采取的进一步行动。Americaisinthevanguard,butexcessivefaithincentralbankersisunlikelytostopthere.Somericheconomies,notablyGermany,havedonewelloflate.ButifAmerica’sslowdownpersists,theytoowillflag,particularlyasfiscalausteritykicksin(seearticle).In2011,oncurrentplans,therichworldissetforitsbiggestcollectivebudgetcutsinatleast40years.AlreadythereistalkoftheBankofEnglandoffsettingthepainbyprintingmoremoneytobuymoregovernmentbonds(apolicyknownasquantitativeeasing).TheEuropeanCentralBankseemsreadytomaintainitsspecialliquidityfacilitiesforlonger,andmaybepushedtodomorewhentherecoveryslows.Currencymovementswilladdtothepressure.TheBankofJapanthisweeksaiditwouldextendtheavailabilityofcheaploanstobanks,inabidtopushdowntheyen.美国走在了前沿，但是对央行银行家过度的的信任不太可能到此为止。一些富裕经济体，尤其是德国，最近表现出众。但是如果美国的经济持续放缓，它们也将放缓，尤其是在财政紧缩开始实施