经济学研究混沌现象的必要性

©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2002)01-0001-08Vol.23No.1Mar.2002JournalofShanghaiMaritimeUniversity:2001-08-29:(1963-),,,,,(,200135):;;;:;;;:F224112;O41515:ANecessityofResearchonEconomicChaosHOURong2hua(TransportationManagementCollege,ShanghaiMaritimeUniversity,Shanghai200135,China)Abstract:Firstlydescribedisthecurrentsituationofresearchoneconomicchaos.Thensummarizedarethetheoreticalandpracticalmeaningsoftheresearchonthechaosofeconomicsystems.Stillthenprobedisthepredictabilityofthemunderthemeaningofchaotictheory.Finallydiscussedaresomehintsgivenbythechaotictheoryineconomicforecasting.Keywords:economics;economicsystem;chaos;forecasting,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,1(),,,(),,©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[1],,:xt+1=(1+d)xt(1-x1-t)(1),10,0d5157=015,d,(1),,;;,,[2][3],1981(J1Benhabib)(R1Day)[4],,,,19821983,[5,6],,,,,1983,,1988,(W.Barnett):,,6,1.31.5,[7]1994,(J.B.Rosser)[8],(multiplier2two2stage2accelerator)(longinvestmentwaves),;,,,,1983,(W.J.Baumol)(E.N.Wolff),,,,1989,,,[9,10][11,12],,,2,,[13],220021©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,;211,()(2070)(),;[14,15],,,,,,,,,,,;,,,()(),,,,,[16],,[1719],,,,,,[20],:,,,[21],,,,,212,,,,;,(,,),,,[22],;,(Delphi)(BrainStorming),,;213,,,,,3No.1:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.[23,24],:,,,,,,,(),,()(leanproduction),,,,,,,,214[25][26],2090:,,,,,,,:,,,,1),(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(FMS)(CIMS),2),,,,,,3),420021©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,,,,,3,311,,,,,,,,,[27]Xt+1=f(Xt),(),Xt+1,,,,f,,,f,,,,,,,:Xt+1=f(Xt,Ct,Rt)(2),Xt;Ct;Rt,3:,,,[28],;,,,;,,(shock)(2),,3,[9,10],,,,;,,,()(19511990),()[29],,,()(2):,;,,:Xt+1=f(Xt)+t+1(3),312,(forecastingorpredicting)2060,:,[27],(18,,5No.1:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.),;,,,,,,3.2.1,[30]:,(predicting),,,,1),2),,3),,,,3,;;,,31),,,,,-,,,(JayForrester),2)3),,3.2.2,,(),,,,()(strangeattractor),,,,,,,,()1)(1),,t11(4),1[15]0.0107,,90,,(2),,,,(),620021©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(3),xt,=2.5029,,(4),,,,,S,,2)(1),,,,,,,,,,,(2),,,,3.2.3,,,,,,;,,,,1),,,,,,,,;,,,,2){xt}Nt=1,,,{xt}Nt=1,,,;,,,(fractal),(,),,,;,,(),(),3),,,,,,,;,,,7No.1:©1994-2010ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:[1]Stutzer,Michael.ChaoticDynamicsandBifurcationinaMacroModel[J].JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl,1980(2):353-376.[2],,.[J].,1991(2):19-26.[3],.[J].,1992(3):94.[4]BenhabibL,DayRRationalChoiceandErraticBehaviour[J].ReviewofEconomicStudies,1981(48):459-471.[5]DayR.IrregularGrowthCycles[J].Am.Econ.Rev,1982(72):406-414.[6]DayR.TheEmergenceofChaosFromClassicalEconomicGrowth[J].TheQuarterlyJournalofEcon,1983(54):201-213.[7](),.[M].,.:,1996.206.[8]RosserJB.LongWaveChaosandSystematicEconomicTransformation[J].WorldFuture,1994(99):197-207.[9]BaumolWJ,WolffEN.FeedbackfromProductivityGrowthtoR&D[J].ScandinavianJ.ofEcon,1983(1):147-157.[10]BaumolWJ,BenhabibJ.Chaos:Significance,mechanismandeconomicapplication[J].J.ofEcon.Perspectives,1989(1):77-105.[11].[J].,1994(3):6-10.[12].[C].().:,1994.101-105.[13].[J].,1998(5):68-69.[14],.[M].:,1993.226.[15].[J].,1994(2):22-36.[16].[J].,1993(4):2932.[17]LevyD.ChaosTheoryandStrategy:Theory,ApplicationandManagerialImplications[J].StrategicManagementJ.,1994(15):167-178.[18],.[J].,1993(2):61-66.[19].[J].,1992(12):70-75.[20].[J].,1997(10):17.[21],.[M].:,1990.1[22],,.:[J].,1999(9):31.[23].[J].,1995(4):13-17.[24].[J].,1995(1):1-7.[25].[M].:,1997.22-23.[26]VintenG.ThrivingonChaos:TheRoutetoManagementSurvival[J].ManagementDecision,1992(8):22-28.[27],,.-()[M].:,2000.251236-250.[28].[J].,1993(3):19.[29],.[J].,1992(3):97.[30].()[M].:,1983.557.()820021