高华证券-全球经济周评：新钻11国的金融发展状况(摘要)-100602

研究报告经济研究来自高华客户网年6月2日本周我们将分析新钻11国（我们2005年推出的新概念）的金融发展状况。我们认为，继金砖四国之后，这11国在推动全球需求和持续增长方面拥有赶超7国集团的潜力。我们深入探讨了这11国的核心国内金融市场发展与收入的关系，并评估了当前其国内金融结构能否为其宏观基本面提供充分的支撑。新钻11国在金融发展方面的差异很大。因此，我们建立了一个简单的“金融发展”评分表，该表由7项金融指标构成，结果显示金融发展与人均收入呈正相关关系。越南和埃及显示的金融发展水平也较高，而墨西哥和土耳其（虽然其金融市场比新钻11国中较小的国家更发达）在金融市场的规模、深度和效率方面有望变得更强大。但需要提醒的是，在解读这些结论时，各国自身的许多具体因素也是其表现与其他国家存在差异的原因。新钻11国无论是从整体上，还是从单个国家看都拥有巨大的潜力。过去几十年这些国家的发展速度表明，它们有望充分利用以市场和银行为基础的金融系统优势。JimO’[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail][e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail][phone]新钻11国的金融发展状况ImportantdisclosuresappearatthebackofthisdocumentGlobalEconomicsWeeklyIssueNo:10/21June2,2010ResearchReportGaoHuaEconomicsResearchat‘next11’emergingeconomiesthat—aftertheBRICs—havethepotentialtorivaltheG7asasourceofglobaldemandandsustainedgrowth.Wedelvedeeperintotheseeconomiestoexploretherelationbetweenunderlyingdomesticfinancialmarketdevelopmentandincome,andtoassesswhetherthecurrentdomesticfinancialarchitectureprovidesadequatesupporttomacrofundamentalsintheN-11economies.TheN-11economiesvarysignificantlyintermsoffinancialdevelopment.Hence,wehaveconstructedasimple‘financialdevelopment’score,madeupofsevenfinancialindicators,whichsuggestsapositiverelationwithincomepercapita.VietnamandEgyptshowhighlevelsoffinancialdevelopmentgiventheirincomepercapita,whereasMexicoandTurkey(althoughfinanciallymoredevelopedthanthesmallerN-11economies)havethepotentialtobecomeevenstrongerintermsofthesize,depthandefficiencyoftheirfinancialmarkets.Thereareimportantcaveatstobearinmindwheninterpretingtheseresults,intheformofthemanycountry-specificfactorsthathavecontributedtowheretheseeconomiesfindthemselvestodaycomparedwiththeirpeers.TheN-11haveagreatdealofpotential,bothcollectivelyandindividually.Theirpaceofdevelopmentoverthepreviousdecadessuggeststhattheyareinastrongpositiontocapitaliseonbothmarket-basedandbank-basedsystemsoffinance.JimO’[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail][e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail][phone]BangladeshEgyptIndonesiaIranKoreaMexicoNigeriaPakistanPhilippinesTurkeyVietnam05,00010,00015,00020,00025,0000246810IncomePerCapitaversusFinancialDevelopmentIncome(USD)perCapitaFinancialDevelopmentScore*Source:BIS,IMF,WorldBank,GSGlobalECSResearchCalculations;*HigherScoreRepresentsMoreAdvancedFinancialDevelopment012345678910SouthKoreaVietnamTurkeyEgyptIranPhilippinesBangladeshIndonesiaPakistanMexicoNigeriaScoreDiverseFinancialDevelopmentAcrosstheN-11FinancialDevelopmentScore*Source:GSGlobalECSResearch.*Higherscoredenotesgreaterfinancialdevelopment.June2,2010IssueNo:10/212GlobalEconomicsWeeklyGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearchFinancialDevelopmentAcrosstheN-11ThisweekwelookatfinancialdevelopmentacrosstheN-11—thenext11emergingeconomies,aftertheBRICs,thathavethepotentialtorivaltheG7asasourceofglobaldemandandsustainedgrowth.WefirstcoinedthetermN-11forthisdiversegroupofeconomies—whichvarywidelyintermsofwealth(seetabletotheright)—inlate2005.Morerecently,JimO’NeillandAnnaStupnytskatrackedtheexperienceoftheBRICsandtheN-11countriesinthefinancialcrisis,andshowedthatanumberofthememergedrelativelyunscathed,particularlycomparedwiththedevelopedeconomies1.ThisisreinforcedifwelookattherecentperformanceoftheN-11relativetotheir10-yearlong-termaverages.TheN-11asanaggregateperformedbetterthanthethreemajordevelopedmarkets,relativelyworsethantheBRICs,andalmostonparwiththeotheremergingmarkets(excludingtheBRICs),asthetablebelowconfirms.WithintheN-11,thethreebiggesteconomies,Korea,MexicoandTurkey(whichwewillcallheretheN-3),arerelativelymoreexposedtoglobalfinancialmarketsandwerehitharderrelativetotheir10-yeartrend.Ontheotherhand,smallereconomiessuchasBangladesh,VietnamandEgyptperformedrelativelybetter.IndonesiawastheonlylargeN-11economytorecordstronggrowth,thankstorobustdomesticdemand.WegobeyondthispicturehereandlookatunderlyingdomesticfinancialmarketdevelopmentsacrosstheN-11andexploreinasimplisticwaytheirrelationtoincome.Thisisnecessarilydifficulttotestfordirectly,letalonemeasure,especiallyasthecausationbetweenincomeanddevelopmentcanworkbothways.However,thisanalysisisimportantifwearetounderstandwhetherthedomesticfinancialarchitectureprovidesadequatesupporttomacrofundamentalsintheN-11economies.WefindthattheN-11economiesvarysignificantlyintermsoffinancialdevelopment.Weconstructasimple‘financialdevelopment’score,madeupofsevenfinancialindicators,whichimpliesapositiverelati