高华证券-欧洲经济周评：实行综合措施之后欧元区前景更稳定-110408

欧洲经济周评IssueNo:11/122011年4月8日[e-mail]+49(0)[e-mail][e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail][phone]重要信息披露见本报告最后部分研究报告高华全球经济研究网站个基点，但并未再度扩大利率区间；它还暗示此后的举措将在流动性/抵押品方面。总体基调表明，加息周期目前正在推进。我们依然认为，2011年欧洲央行累计加息75个基点，但存在额外加息一次的空间。下次加息时间将取决于数据表现。我们将在本周评的第二部分详细探讨上月末欧盟峰会的成果。欧元区原有的财政管理体系存在一些缺陷，它在一些国家财政状况出现恶化时无法遏制其发展至危险境地。欧盟各政府在近期峰会上达成的最新财政框架旨在弥补这些缺陷，而且这比从前已实现了明显进步。尽管改革后的系统不会令欧洲货币联盟成员国当前的财政状况看起来有任何好转，但它应该能为财政前景缓慢但稳健的好转奠定基础。根据以往经验，不难理解人们会对新机制在实际应用中的有效性持高度怀疑的态度。但是金融危机已经警示各国政府、特别是那些财力相对雄厚的政府，无视其它经济体的财政失衡可能带来怎样的代价。因此，我们认为新规可能得到更加严格的执行。ImportantdisclosuresappearatthebackofthisdocumentEuropeanWeeklyAnalystIssueNo:11/12April8,2011ResearchReportGaoHuaEconomicsResearchat‘comprehensivepackage’TheECBhikedinterestratesby25bponThursday,butdidnotre-widentheinterestratecorridor;italsohintedatforthcomingdecisionsontheliquidity/collateralside.Theoveralltonesuggeststhatthehikingcycleisnowontrack.WeremainhappywithourmainviewthatthecumulativeECBtighteningwillamountto75bpin2011,buttherisksaretiltedtowardsoneadditionalhike.Thetimingofthenexthikewillbedatadependent.Ourfocuspiecethisweeklooksindetailattheresultsoftheend-MarchEUsummit.TheoldsystemoffiscalgovernanceintheEuro-zonesufferedfromseveralshortcomingsandwasunabletopreventadeteriorationofthefiscalsituationtoprecariouslevelsinanumberofcountries.ThenewfiscalframeworkagreedonbyEUgovernmentsattherecentsummitaimstoaddresstheseshortcomingsandisasignificantimprovementonthepreviousstatusquo.AlthoughthereformedsystemisunlikelytomakethecurrentfiscalpositionofEMUmembercountrieslookanybetter,itshouldnonethelessprovidethefoundationforaslowlybutsteadilyimprovingfiscaloutlook.Givenpastexperience,thereisunderstandablyahighdegreeofscepticismabouthoweffectivethenewframeworkwillprovetobeinpractice.Butthefinancialcrisisshouldhavehighlightedtogovernments—inparticularthosewithrelativelystrongfiscalpositions—thepotentialcostofignoringfiscalimbalancesinotherplaces.Wethereforeseeanincreasedlikelihoodo[e-mail]+49(0)[e-mail][e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+44(0)2075525748020040060080010001200Jan-08Jul-08Jan-09Jul-09Jan-10Jul-10bpPeripheralspreadsremainwideGreeceIrelandItalyPortugalSpainSource:FinancialTimesSpreadover10-yearGermanbund020406080100120140160GRCITABELIREPORFRAGERESP%ofGDPGreece'sgovernmentdebtburdenstilltheclearoutlierinperipherySource:EurostatApril8,2011IssueNo:11/122EuropeanWeeklyAnalystGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearchWeekinreviewECBmeeting:ahike,butnocorridorwideningTheECBhikeditskeyinterestratesby25bpasexpected(themainrefinancingrateisnowat1.25%),butdidnotre-widentheinterestratecorridoraswehadforecast(thedepositrateroseto0.5%andthemarginallendingrateto2%).TheBankalsohintedatforthcomingdecisionsontheliquidity/collateralside.Althoughthecode-wordingwasscaledbackfrom“strongvigilance”toa“veryclosemonitoring”ofupsideriskstopricestability,“extremealert”onsecond-roundeffectscreptinasanewphrase.Theoveralltonesuggeststhat,evenwithoutanimminentfurtherhike,thehikingcycleisnowontrack.WeremainhappywithourcentralforecastthatthecumulativeECBtighteningwillamountto75bpin2011,buttherisksaretiltedtowardsoneadditionalhike.Thetimingofthenexthikewillbe“datadependent”.Wehighlightfivekeypointsfromthemeeting.1.No“vigilance”butastill“accommodative”stance:nohikeinMaybutwatchoutfurtherahead.TheoveralltoneofThursday’spressconferenceisthesumoftwoparts:thefine-tuningofthestatement’swordingandtheoverallrhetoriconriskstopricestability.Intermsofthewording,theintroductorystatementwas‘neutralized’soasnottocreateexpectationsofanotherinterestratehikeasearlyasinMay(“strongvigilance”wasreplacedby“monitoringveryclosely”,andthestancebecame“accommodative”,i.e.,droppingthe“very”).Takenatfacevalue,thiswordingshiftcouldscalebackratehikeexpectations.However,almosteverythingintheECB’sanalysis—inparticulartheresilienceoftherecoveryand,evenmore,second-roundeffects—seemstoindicatethattheECBiscomfortablewithembarkingonagradualbutsteadyhikingcycle.2.Thedifferencebetween“asequenceofhikes”andadata-dependent“hikingcycle”issubtlebutimportant.IntheQ&As,TrichetsaidthattheECB’sintentwasnottosignalaforthcomingsequenceofhikes.Yetagain,theECB’sassessmentofgrowth,riskstopricestability,inflationexpectationsandsecond-roundeffectsallindicatethatahikingcycleisunderway:TheECBseestheunderlyingmacroeconomicmomentumas“positive”,andthelatestnewsflowdoesnotindicatethatthisischanging.UpsideriskstopricestabilityremainprominentintheECB’sassessment.Importantly(andtosomeextentatoddswithourowninterpretationofsparecapacityintheEuroarea),strongerthanexpecte