高华证券-欧洲经济周评：欧元区边缘国家私人部门调整(摘要)-100527

欧洲经济周评IssueNo:10/192010年5月27日[e-mail]+49(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail][phone]重要信息披露见本报告最后部分研究报告高华全球经济研究网站经济研究来自高华客户网欧元区边缘国家私人部门调整：需要更多，但可实现本周欧洲几乎没有重大事件发生，至少以近期标准衡量是如此。主要新闻是意大利和西班牙宣布并通过了额外的调整举措。然而不仅欧元区边缘经济体的政府部门需要修复它们的资产负债状况，私人部门的负债率在过去10年中大幅提高，目前也需要收紧开支。好消息是私人部门已经开始不同程度的调整：目前希腊、西班牙和意大利的私人部门公布储蓄为正值。然而葡萄牙私人部门的去杠杠化还未真正开始。目前这个阶段还不清楚负债率必须进一步下降多少。如果以对外金融净资产的稳定性做为一个可能的衡量指标，看上去需要进一步采取措施。然而，如果我们假设对外金融净资产在2011年实现稳定，并进一步假设政府将实现它们的赤字目标，那么希腊、西班牙和意大利私人部门的新增储蓄将仅为GDP的2%-3%左右。葡萄牙的调整似乎面临更多挑战性，调整幅度可能高达GDP的10%。ImportantdisclosuresappearatthebackofthisdocumentEuropeanWeeklyAnalystIssueNo:10/19May27,2010ResearchReportGaoHuaEconomicsResearchat’sachievableItwasaratheruneventfulweekinEurope,atleastwhenmeasuredbyrecentstandards.TheannouncementandapprovalofadditionalconsolidationmeasuresinItalyandSpainwerethemainnewsitems.ButitisnotonlythegovernmentsectorthatneedstorepairitsbalancesheetintheEuro-zone’speripheraleconomies.Theprivatesectortoohasincreaseditsleveragesignificantlyoverthepasttenyears,andnowalsoneedstotightenitsbelt.Thegoodnewsisthatthisprocesshas,tovaryingdegrees,alreadystarted:theprivatesectorisnowreportingpositivesavingsinGreece,SpainandItaly.Thatsaid,deleveraginghasnotyetreallystartedinPortugal.Atthisstage,itisnotclearhowfarthede-leveragingstillhastogo.Usingthestabilisationofthenetforeignassetpositionasapossiblesignpost,itwouldappearthatmoreneedstobedone.However,ifweassumethatstabilisationshouldbereachedby2011,andfurtherassumethatgovernmentswillmeettheirdeficittargets,thentheoverallamountofadditionalprivate-sectorsavingswouldbearoundjust2%-3%ofGDPforGreece,SpainandItaly.TheadjustmentinPortugallooksalotmorechallenging,[e-mail]+49(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail][phone]-15.0-10.0-5.00.05.010.00304050607080910GreecePortugalSpainItalySource:HaverAnalytics,GSGlobalECSResearch%ofGDPPrivate-sectorde-leveragingintheperiphery,withtheexceptionofPortugal(private-sectorsavingsasashareofquarterlyGDP)Netfinancialassetpositionsinperiphery(2009)%ofGDPGreeceItalyPortugalSpainHouseholds59.3179.7130.176.3Nonfinancialcorporations-68.8-106.5-170.6-143.4Financialcorporations-5.614.7-8.610.9Government-87-104.2-56.7-34.8Totaldomesticeconomy-102.1-16.4-105.7-91.1Source:NationalStatisticsOffices,GSGlobalECSResearchMay27,2010IssueNo:10/192EuropeanWeeklyAnalystGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearchWeekinreviewBusinesssurveys:SignsofmoderatingmomentumTheMayroundofbusinesssurveyswasabitmoremixedthaninrecentmonths,withsomelossofmomentumevidentacrossvarioussectorsofthemajorEuro-zoneeconomies.InthecaseoftheflashPMIs,thismoderationwasunderlinedbyasharpdropintheGermanmanufacturingindexfrom61.5to58.3.Inisolation,thisdeclinewasnottoomuchofaconcern,sincetheindexwasalreadyarecordhighandperhapsovershotatouchinrecentmonths,butitwasalsoaccompaniedbyafallbackintheFrenchmanufacturingindexfrom56.6to56.2.TogetherthesereadingsbroughttheaggregateEuro-zoneindexdownfrom57.6to55.9.Germanyalsosufferedasetbackintheservicessector,withitsindexdecliningfrom55.2to53.7.Frenchservices,ontheotherhand,rosestronglyfrom59.1to61.9,buildingonanevenmorerapidincreaseofroughly5pointsinthepreviousmonth.Thecaveathereisthattheindexitselfhasbeenhighlyvolatileoverthepastsixmonths:itexperiencedasimilarsurgeattheendoflastyear(peakingat60.8)butthendriftedbackdownto53.8inMarchbeforeturningupagain.Inthissense,itwouldbeprematuretoreadtoomuchintotherecentnumbersuntiltheseriessettlesintoamorestabletrend.Furthersignsofmoderationcamefromtheothermajorregionalsurveys.TheGermanIfoedgedlowerfrom101.6to101.5,whiletheFrenchINSEE(up1point)andtheItalianISAE(up0.3)registeredmoremutedgainsthantheyhadaveragedinpreviousmonths.Toputthisallinperspective,however,weneedtoconsiderthelevelsaswellasthemonthlychanges.Althoughtheymaybeslowingatouchonasequentialbasis,boththemanufacturingandservicesPMIsarefirmlyabove50(expansionaryterritory),andhavebeeninthisrangeforabouteightmonthsnow.Similarly,boththecurrentsituationandexpectationscomponentsoftheGermanIfoarecomfortablyabovetheirlong-termaverages,andtheFrenchINSEEandItalianISAEarenottoofarofftheirown.Thepointthatfollowsfromthisisthat,atcurrentlevels,thesurveysareconsistentwithnon-annualisedquarterlyEuro-zoneGDPgrowthof+0.7%qoq(Chart1),whichinannualisedtermsamountsto2.8%,doublethe1.4%weareprojectingforthisyear.Therefore,althoughwestillexpectastrongQ2readingof+0.8%qoq(andthesurveysarecurrentlyinlinewiththisrate),sequentialgrowthissettoslowto+0.4%qoqinthesecondhalfoftheyear,andinordertoreflectthisdeceleration,thesurveysarelikelytoflattenaccordingly.PolishMPCholdssteadyAsexpected,theNationalBankofPolandkeptitspolicyrateunchangedat3.50%atitsMaymeeting,andretaineditsneutralinterestratestance,despitetherecentfallintheinflationratebelow