高华证券：农产品最新分析—我们对XXXX年美国农业部种植意向

2010年3月30日商品农产品最新分析我们对2010年美国农业部种植意向报告的预测我们预计玉米和大豆的种植面积温和增长，棉花种植面积大幅增长，小麦种植面积大幅下降。总体而言，我们预计总种植面积将小幅下降。我们预计玉米和大豆的种植面积温和增长，棉花种植面积大幅增长，小麦种植面积大幅下降美国农业部将于3月31日公布2010/2011年种植意向报告，这将有助于我们大概了解2010/2011耕作年农民的种植意向。由于在全球范围内美国几乎是所有粮食作物的最大出口国，最终公布的种植面积预测对于我们对粮食作物周期性的看法至关重要。继冬小麦播种大幅下降后，我们预计2010/2011年小麦种植面积将大幅下降。由于冬小麦种植面积下降、玉米和大豆的预期回报高于去年水平，我们预计2010/2011年玉米和大豆的种植面积将增加，其中玉米种植面积的增幅最大。此外，由于去年棉花价格大幅上扬，我们预计棉花的种植面积将强劲反弹。尽管我们预计主要农作物的春播面积将增加，但是我们认为其增幅无法抵消冬小麦种植面积的大幅下降，因此预计2010/2011年总种植面积将小幅下降，达到2007年以来的最低水平。2010/2011耕作年种植面积预测百万英亩资料来源：美国农业部、路透、高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究DamienCourvalin+44(20)[e-mail]高盛国际AllisonF.Nathan(212)[e-mail]高盛集团高盛集团与本研究报告所分析的企业存在业务关系，并且继续寻求发展这些关系。因此，投资者应当考虑到本公司可能存在可能影响本报告客观性的利益冲突，不应视本报告为作出投资决策的唯一因素。关于重要的信息披露，请参阅信息披露之前的部分或登陆或请与您的投资代表联系。高盛集团高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究Crop2009/10USDAConsensusGSy-o-yCorn86.589.090.189.23.2%Soybean77.577.078.478.81.7%Wheat59.153.853.553.2-10.1%Winter43.337.1n.a.37.1-14.3%Durum&OtherSpring15.816.7n.a.16.11.5%Cotton9.110.5n.a.10.918.6%Total-5grains232.2230.3n.a.232.0-0.1%2010/112010年3月30日商品高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究2CurrenttradingrecommendationsSource:GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.LongDecemberWTIBuyDecember2010NYMEXWTIFebruary5,2010-CommodityWatch$77.75/bbl$84.05/bbl$6.30/bblLongHeatingOil,shortFuelOilBuy3Q2010USGCHeatingOilJuly15,2009-CommodityWatch$17.44/bbl$18.16/bbl($0.92/bbl)Sell3Q2010USGC3.0%FuelOilLongPlatinumBuyApril2010NYMEXPlatinumJuly15,2009-CommodityWatch$1,509.4/toz$1,627.9/toz$484.2/tozLongCoppertimespreadBuyDecember2010CopperSeptember8,2009-Metals$112/mt$52/mt($60/mt)SellDecember2011CopperWTIcalltradeBuyJune2010NYMEXWTIcallstruckat$85/bblJune3,2009-EnergyWatch$2.93/bbl$2.21/bbl($1.21/bbl)¹AsofcloseonMarch29,2010.Inclusiveofallpreviousrollingprofits/losses.InitiatedasalongJun-10callspreadposition.ShortWTI$100/bblcallclosedfora$0.49/bbllossonFebruary5Currentprofit/(loss)1RolledonDecember3,2009fromaBuyJanuary2010NYMEXPlatinumfor$365.7/tozgainCurrenttradesFirstrecommendedInitialvalueCurrentValueRolledonDecember3,2009fromaBuy1Q2010USGCHeatingOil,Sell1Q2010USGC3.0%FuelOilfor$1.65/bblloss2010年3月30日商品高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究3Priceactions,volatilitiesandforecastsunits29MarChangeImplied2ChangeRealized2Change3Q084Q081Q092Q093Q094Q093m6m12mEnergy2.513.580.180.10-0.97-0.38IndustrialMetals41495752820137PreciousMetals-91.0Agriculture-4217-21-298-6.63.5-0.91Monthlychangeisdifferenceofcloseonlastbusinessdayandcloseamonthago.2Monthlyvolatilitychangeisdifferenceofaveragevolatilityoverthepastmonthandthatofthepriormonth(3-moATMimpliedvolatility,1-morealizedvolatility).3Priceforecastsrefertopromptcontractpriceforecastsin3-,6-,and12-monthstime.4BasedonLMEthreemonthprices.1.341.251.942.442.502.391.711.86RBOBGasoline$/gal2.2631.9-2.7125.4-10.02.9695.00BrentCrudeOil$/bbl81.1730.9-2.3723.6-12.4117.1557.4990.5095.5043.3159.7945.7259.9068.8775.5482.1731.1-2.4822.2-12.996.5068.2476.1392.0097.00PriceForecasts3HistoricalPrices118.2259.08Volatilities(%)andmonthlychanges2Pricesandmonthlychanges1WTICrudeOil$/bbl2.542.58USGCHeatingOil$/gal2.0931.3-2.8322.5-11.83.311.841.341.511.731.942.395.506.00NYMEXNat.Gas$/mmBtu3.8437.9-4.3130.1-7.98.986.404.473.813.444.935.5030.6036.00UKNBPNat.Gasp/th30.9642.0-7.4536.4-10.966.4565.5945.3027.5723.4831.8330.6022852165LMEAluminum$/mt228326.2-3.4019.2-10.3283918851401153018362037231580457825LMECopper$/mt777034.8-2.6224.6-18.675713948349447085856667778501765517155LMENickel$/mt2399541.6-0.8732.7-5.31913311118106251314717576175931757525552590LMEZinc$/mt233242.2-0.7333.1-16.8179812191208150917802241267013151390LondonGold$/troyoz111018.5-4.3114.8-8.98727959089239621099126021.923.2LondonSilver$/troyoz17.230.7-3.3528.6-9.415.110.212.613.814.717.621.0550600CBOTWheatcent/bu46534.5-1.5926.8-8.9792552551564485522500950950CBOTSoybeancent/bu96824.3-1.1219.0-1.81320915949112810491002925450475CBOTCorncent/bu35733.92.1622.7-1.55783843774063273864007070NYBOTCottoncent/lb80n/an/a20.8-2.267474654607170140140NYBOTCoffeecent/lb138n/an/a18.7-6.213811211312412513914027002700NYBOTCocoa$/mt2925n/an/a24.9-4.5278422522553249928673259310017.017.0NYBOTSugarcent/lb17.537.5-4.0960.211.213.111.612.714.720.623.620.090.0110.0CMELiveCattlecent/lb95.4n/an/a13.43.3101.388.783.883.085.483.685.080.080.0CMELeanHogcent/lb71.9n/an/a18.4-1.374.759.160.163.253.757.865.0Source:GoldmanSachsGlobalECSResearch.2010年3月30日商品高盛全球经济、商品和策略研究4Ourprojectionsforthe2010USDAProspectivePlantingReportOnMarch31,theUSDAwillreleaseits2010/11ProspectivePlantingReport,whichwillprovidethefirstindicationoffarmers’plantingintentionsforthe2010/11cropyear.AstheUSisthelargestglobalexporterinnearlyallgrains,theresultingnewbalanceswillbecriticalforourcyclicalviewongrains.Weexpectwheatplantingtodeclinestronglyin2010/11followingthelargedropinwinterwheatseeding.Withlowerwinterwheatareaandhigherexpectedreturnsthanlastyearforbothcornandsoybeans,weexpectplantedareaforbothcropstoincreasein2010/11,withcornacreageupmost.Finally,weexpectcottonacreagetoreboundstronglyowingtothesharpcottonpricerallyoverthe