高华证券-欧洲经济周评：欧元区银行资金短缺对增长构成的风险-111007

欧洲经济周评IssueNo:11/332011年10月07日[e-mail]+44(20)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+49(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail][e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail][phone]重要信息披露见本报告最后部分研究报告高华全球经济研究网站欧元区银行资金短缺对增长构成的风险欧元区银行的批发融资成本在过去几个月中飙升，主要由于投资者重新评估银行可能由边缘国家的债务引起的违约风险。尽管这一风险（体现为信用违约互换利差）仅代表银行整体融资成本的一部分，但考虑到欧洲银行在未来数月中有显著的融资需求，目前的状况引发了对整个银行体系健全与否的忧虑。欧洲央行已经对银行融资市场的种种压力作出反应，并将启动两项长期回购操作，后一项将在2013年初到期。此外，欧洲央行将重启资产担保债券购置计划，从2011年11月起再购买400亿欧元的有担保银行债券。最近各方言论表明，政府似乎也决定要参与缓解银行业的紧张局面，但时间和具体措施目前仍不确定。信用违约互换利差与欧元区私营部门的贷款利率间的关联并非一目了然。但边缘国家增长受到的负面影响却来势汹汹。银行体系中的资金压力持续的时间约长，欧元区核心国家受到显著影响的风险就越高。ImportantdisclosuresappearatthebackofthisdocumentEuropeanWeeklyAnalystIssueNo:11/33October7,2011ResearchReportGaoHuaEconomicsResearchat’defaultriskstemmingfromtheirexposuretoperipheraldebt.Althoughthisdefaultrisk,asreflectedinCDSspreads,representsonlypartoftheoverallfundingcostsofbanks,thecurrentsituationraisesconcernsabouttheoverallhealthofthebankingsectorgiventhesubstantialrefinancingneedsofEuropeanbanksinthecomingmonths.TheECBhasnowreactedtothesestrainsinbankfundingmarkets.ItwillconducttwonewLTROs,thelatterofwhichwillmatureonlyatthebeginningof2013.Inaddition,theECBwillalsoreactivateitsCoveredBondPurchaseProgramme,underwhichitplanstobuyanadditional€40billionofcoveredbondsfromNovember2011.Judgingfromlatestcomments,governmentsnowalsoseemdeterminedtoaddressthetensionsinthebankingsector,althoughitremainsunclearatthisstagewhen,andwhat,measureswillbetaken.TranslatingCDSspreadsintolendingratesfortheEuro-zoneprivatesectorisnotstraightforward.Whatisclear,however,isthatadverseeffectsongrowtharefeltpredominatelyintheperiphery.However,thelongerthestrainsinthesystemcontinue,thegreatertheriskthatcoreE[e-mail]+44(20)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+49(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail][e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail]+44(0)[e-mail][phone]€0bn€20bn€40bn€60bn€80bn08/1110/1112/1102/1204/1206/1208/1210/1212/12PortugalGreeceIrelandBeneluxItalyFranceSpainGermanySource:Bloomberg,GSEuropeanBankRedemptionsbyMainCountriesAug-2011toDec-201205010015020025030023456780405060708091011%Source:Haveranalytics,Bloomberg.Euro-zone:NocorrelationbetweenCDSspreadsandlendingratesLendingratenon-fin.Corporates,5yearloan(lhs)SeniorfinancialsCDS5yearsbpOctober7,2011IssueNo:11/332EuropeanWeeklyAnalystGoldmanSachsGlobalEconomics,CommoditiesandStrategyResearchWeekinreviewECBsignalsratecutonthehorizonTheECBleftratesunchangedatitsOctobermeeting,butopenedthedoortoaratecutlaterthisyear.Themostnotableshifttowardsaneasingbiaswassignalledimplicitly:unlikeintheSeptemberpressconference,Trichetnolongerdescribedmonetarypolicyas“accommodative”.TheGoverningCouncil(GC)expressedconcernoverthegrowthoutlook—itsSeptemberexpectationthat“theeuroareaeconomy[wouldcontinue]togrowmoderately”wasreplacedwithreferenceto“particularlyhighuncertaintyandintensifieddownsiderisks”.Theriskstothemedium-terminflationoutlookcontinuetobeseenasbroadlybalanced.DuringtheQ&Asectionofhisfinalpolicymeetingpressconference,TrichetrepeatedlyreferredtointernaldiscussionswithintheGeneralCouncilonthe“prosandcons”ofcuttingthepolicyrate.Thedecisiontokeepratesonholdwastaken“byconsensus”,implyingsomemembersoftheGCwereindeedinfavouroflowerrates.WebelievetheECBisedgingtowardsaratecutbutthat,forthetimebeing,theGCwillwaittoseemoreevidenceontheseverityofthedeteriorationintheEuro-zoneeconomy.PolicymakersprobablyalsoneedtoseeheadlineinflationfallingbackfromSeptember’s3%beforelooseningmonetarypolicy.Weexpectbothoftheseconditionstobeinplacelaterthisyear,andforecasta50bpratecutattheDecembermeeting.Asforthe‘unconventional’measures,theECBannouncedtwoadditionallong-termrepooperations(LTROs):oneattheendofOctober(of371-daymaturity)andoneattheendofDecember(of406-daymaturity,therebycoveringthe2013yearend).Theseoperationswillbeconductedasfixed-ratetenderswithfullallotment.TheECB’smainrefinancingoperationwillalsobeconductedwithfullallotment“atleastuntil10July2012”.ThetwonewLTROsshouldhelptoeasesomeofthefundingstrainsfacedbyEuro-zonebanks(Chart1);TrichetmadeclearthattheECBwouldstandreadytoprovidebankswithasmuchliquidityasnecessary.Thereactivationofthecoveredbondpurchaseprogram(€40bnversusthepreviousprogramof€60bn)alsoaimstoimprovefundingconditionsforbanks.Purchasesofcoveredbondswillbeconductedinprimaryandsecondarymarkets.Giventhesha