高盛集团证券估值培训

HelenJewell,[e-mail]–Understandingwhat’simportantTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.November2009GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch2Introduction•Wearegoingtoconsiderthreeofthemostpopularandeffectivevaluationtools•Returnsbasedanalysis•MultipleAnalysis•DCF•Foreachofthemwearegoingtolookat:•Howtheywork•Whysomeworkbetterthanothers,and….•WhytheyareallsimplydifferentwaysoflookingatthesamethingReturnsBasedAnalysisGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch4KeyIdeaIt’sallaboutthevalue-addedExcessvaluecreatedbyacompanyExcessvalueattributedbythemarketVersusActualReturnversusRequiredReturnActualValueversusInvestedValueCROCIWACCTotalEVGrossCashInvestedIftheseareoutofline,thestockismisvaluedForDirector’sCut,butcanadjustGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch5EVCROCIGCIWACCTheinvestmentshouldbeworth$50mTheactualreturnis5%EVCROCIGCIWACCTheinvestmentshouldbeworth$200mTheactualreturnis20%EVCROCIGCIWACCTheinvestmentshouldbeworth$100mTheactualreturnis10%WhyDoesitWork?Youinvest$100minsomeassetsYourrequiredreturnis10%ValueCreatingValueDestroyingGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch6CalculatingCROCICROCI=Debt-AdjustedCashFlowGrossCashInvestedOperatingcashflow(ignoringWorkingCapital)plusafter-taxinterestandleaseexpenseInterestandLeasex(1–TaxRate)Non-cashitemsandthecompany’sfinancialstructurehavenoimpact,makingcomparisonsmoremeaningfulGrossAssetsplusOperatingworkingcapitalpluscapitalisedleasesplusinvestmentsDepreciationpoliciesdonotimpactthisfigurePre-depreciationandwriteoffvalueoftangibleandintangibleassetsGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch7Companiesarecomparedwiththesector0.00.51.51.0CROCI/WACCEV/GCI2.5Quartile4Quartile3Quartile2Quartile11.02.0Linerepresentingaveragevaluationforthesector0.51.52.0UndervaluedOvervaluedDCscore1DCscore11:1lineQuestion:Whyarethesedifferent?GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch8Whyarethesedifferent?•Capex•Valuableassetswhicharenotrevalued(eg.Intangibles)•Growth…..GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch9Whataboutgrowth?•Absolutegrowthisnotthedriverofvalue•Why?•Growthisn’talwaysgood•Returns,notgrowth,havehistoricallybeenshowntodrivevaluations•ReturnsaremorestableandconsistentthangrowthGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch10Growthisn’talwaysgood!ValueNeutralReturn==RequiredreturnValueDestroyerReturnRequiredreturnValueAddingReturnRequiredreturnPriceStableHighLowGrowthHighLowGrowthPriceDownPriceUPBadGrowthGoodGrowth•Ifmanagementaregeneratinglowerreturnsthanrequiredreturns,thenvaluewillbedestroyed•Ifmanagementaregeneratinghigherreturnsthanrequiredreturns,thenvaluewillbeaddedGoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch11Cashreturnspreads,notgrowth,drivevaluationandperformanceThemarketvaluescompaniesonreturns:Thecorrelationbetweencapitalizationofcashinvested(EVvs.GCI)andeconomicreturnspread(CROCIvs.WACC)issignificantlyhigherthanbetweenmultiplesandgrowth0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%EV/EBITDAvs.NextyearEBITDAgrowthDivYieldvs.NextyearDPSgrowthPEvs.NextyearEPSgrowthEV/GCIvs.CROCI/WACCR^2acrosssectors2000-2008average0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%DivYieldvs.NextyearDPSgrowthPEvs.NextyearEPSgrowthEV/EBITDAvs.NextyearEBITDAgrowthEV/GCIvs.CROCI/WACCR^2acrosssectors2000-2008averageDirector’sCutshowsthehighestcorrelationwithmarketvaluationovertimeinAEJ……aswellasinJapanSource:GoldmanSachsResearchestimates,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates.GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch12Superiorreturnsaremoresustainablethansuperiorgrowth0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%1234567891011121314NumberofconsecutiveyearsinfirstquartilePercentageofcompanies(atleastoneyearinthetop-quartile)FirstquartileCROCIFirstquartileGrowthAverageyearsfirstquartilepositionissustained:CROCI:2.8yearsGrowth:1.2yearsMorethan95%ofcompaniesdisplayfirstquartilegrowthfor2yearsorless.Approx.85%donotmakeitpast1yearCROCIismuchmoresustainable,withmorethan35%ofcompaniesthateverreturnedatopquartileCROCI,holdingthepositionfor3consecutiveyearsandlongerTop-quartilereturnsmoresustainablethangrowthinAEJ……aswellasinJapanSource:Companydata,GoldmanSachsResearchestimates,GaoHuaSecuritiesResearchestimates.0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%1234567891011121314NumberofconsecutiveyearsinfirstquartilePercentageofcompanies(atleastoneyearinthetop-quartile)FirstquartileCROCIFirstquartileGrowthAverageyearsfirstquartilepositionissustained:CROCI:2.4yearsGrowth:1.3yearsAbout95%ofcompaniesdisplayfirstquartilegrowthfor2yearsorless.Approx.80%donotmakeitpast1yearCROCIismuchmoresustainable,withapprox.30%ofcompaniesthateverreturnedatopquartileCROCI,holdingthepositionforlongerthan3consecutiveyearsAndunderstandingthesustainabilityofreturnsiscriticalforvaluation……GoldmanSachsGlobalInvestmentResearch13Takingthemethodologyonestepfurther–understandingthebehaviourofQ1andQ4CROCIcompanies•CompanieswhohaveQ1CROCIandwhocansustainthislevelofCROCIwillbeascribedapremiumbythemarket(theymayappeartobeovervaluedbuttheyarenot).ThesizeofthepremiumdependsonhowlongtheywillstayasaQ1CROCIstock•CompanieswhomoveintoQ1CROCIbutforwhothemarketdoesnotbelievethistobesustainablewillnotre-rate(theymayappeartobeundervaluedbuttheyarenot)•