搜索
3:50,,208080,,,:3,,:100732,:caoyongfu@eyou.com(04&ZD009)Bernanke(2004),,,1857200131,GDP1GDP:(GDP1)208020,(GreatModeration)??,,,(2),20,,205090,;2090,2080;;251:Burns(1960),19592GDP:504,,Burns:,;;,(),,;,,Burns,205060,7080,80,,,20508018931940Gordon(1986),Burns(1960),GordonTaylor(1986),,,,Taylor(),,(),(),,(),DelongLawrence(),,,Zarnowitz(1992),818,Burns(1960),:;,;Zarnowitz,,,5060,2070,,,Zarnowitz35120077,20902070,80,209010Weber(1997)McConnellPerez2Quiros(2000),,19841,KimNelson(1999),BlanchardSimon(2001)GDP2050115%90015%StockWatson(2002)2080222080?8070,;,;;,,,6()()StockWatson(2002)AhmedWilson(2004)BlanchardSimon(2001),,,,205070,8090,StockWatson(2002),50708090,80905070(Counterfactual),,,Dynan(2005),,Cecchetti(2006),2080,,209090,Cecchetti(),,Kahn(2002),(),,,Kahn,451:Weber(1997),(1997,2000),,(2002)(2003),,;(Just2in2time)(),,,BlanchardSimon(2001)GDP(),,EggersIoannides(2006),1GDP10,,50%,:,EggersIoannidesGDP,BlanchardSimonGDP,GDP50,,:,2080,,(),2070,80,Clarida(2002),70,,,,,,,,()50,,2080(Q),,Dynan55120077(2003)1979,198710(2005),(),,;,JermannQuadrini(2006),,,(),;,,JermannQuadrini,,,JermannQuadrin()(Realbusinesscycle),,80,,,Arias(2006)(TFP),50%LeducSill(2003),TFP;,,,(2004),BlanchardSimon(2001),,KraayVentura(2001),,,,;,,,,,,,,,KraayVentura(2001),Cecchetti(2006),25,,,,:,CominPhilippon(2005),,,?Philippon(2003),CominPhilippon(2005),207080;(R&D),651:GDP,;;CominPhilippon(2005),OECD,2090,,,,,,,,,;,;,,(1996),-,,(2006),,,,,,,;();;;;(),,,2003:,1112,2004::,()34,1996:,,1997:,1998:,,2000:,1,2002:,,2003:,1112,2006:,,Ahmed,L.andWilson,B.,2004,RecentU.S.MacroeconomicStability:GoodPolicies,GoodPractices,orGoodLuck?,ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,Vol.86(3),824832.Arias,A.,Hansen,G.andOhanian,L.,2006,WhyHaveBusinessCycleFluctuationsBecomeLessVolatile?,NBERWorkingPaper,No.W12079.Bernanke,B.,2004,TheGreatModeration,RemarksattheMeetingsoftheEasternEconomicAssociation.75120077Blanchard,O.andSimon,J.,2001,TheLongandLargeDeclineinU.SOutputVolatility,BrookingsPapersonEconomicActivity,Vol.32(1),135164.Burns,A.,1960,ProgresstowardEconomicStability,AmericanEconomicReview,Vol.50(1),119.Cecchetti,S.,Flores2Lagunes,A.andStefan,K.,2006,AssessingtheSourcesofChangesintheVolatilityofRealGrowth,NBERWorkingPaper,No.W11946.Clarida,R.,Gali,J.andGertler,M.,2000,MonetaryPolicyRulesandMacroeconomicStability:EvidenceandSomeTheory,QuarterlyJournalofEconomics,Vol.115(1),147180.Comin,D.andPhilippon,T.,2005,TheRiseinFirm2LevelVolatility:CausesandConsequences,NBERWorkingPaper,No.11388.Delong,B.andLawrence,S.,1986,TheChangingCyclicalVariabilityofEconomicActivityintheUnitedStates,inGordon(Eds.)TheAmericanBusinessCycle:ContinuityandChange,UniversityofChicagoPress.Dynan,K.,Elmendorf,D.andSichel,D.,2005,CanFinancialInnovationHelptoExplaintheReducedVolatilityofEconomicActivity?,FEDsWorkingPaper,No.20052054.Eggers,A.andIoannides,Y.,2006,TheRoleofOutputCompositionintheStabilizationofU.S.OutputGrowth,JournalofMacroeconomics,Vol.28(3),585595.Gordon,R.,1986,TheAmericanBusinessCycle:ContinuityandChange,UniversityofChicagoPress.Hansen,G.,Andres,A.andL.Ohanian,2006,WhyHaveBusinessCycleFluctuationsBecomeLessVolatile?,NBERWorkingPaper,No.W12079.Kahn,J.,McConnell,M.andPerez2Quiros,G.,2002,OntheCausesoftheIncreasedStabilityoftheU.S.Economy,FRBNYEconomicPolicyReview,Vol.8(1),183202.Kim,Chang2JinandNelson,C.,1999,HastheU.S.EconomyBecomeMoreStable?ABayesianApproachBasedonaMarkov2SwitchingModeloftheBusinessCycle,ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,Vol.81(4),608616.Kraay,A.andVentura,J.,2001,ComparativeAdvantagesandtheCross2SectionofBusinessCylces,NBERWorkingPaper,No.8104.Jermann,U.andQuadrini,V.,2006,FinancialInnovationsandMacroeconomicVolatility,NBERWorkingPaper,No.12308.Leduc,S.andSill,K.,2003,MonetaryPolicy,OilShocks,andTFP:AccountingfortheDeclineinU.S.Volatility,FRBofPhiladelphiaWorkingPaper,No.03222PR.McConnell,M.andPerez2Quiros,G.,2000,OutputFluctuationsintheUnitedStates:WhathasChangedSincetheEarly1980s?,AmericanEconomicReview,Vol.90(5),14641476.Philippon,T.,2003,AnExplanationfortheJointEvolutionofFirmandAggregateVolatility,mimeoNYU.Stock,H.andWatson,M.,2002,HastheBusinessCycleChangedandWhy?,InGertler,M.andRogoff,K.(Eds.)NBERMacroeconomicsAnnual,MITPress.Taylor,J.,1986,ImprovementinMacroeconomicStability:TheRoleofWagesandPrices,inGordon(Eds.)TheAmericanBusinessCycle:ContinuityandChange,UniversityofChicagoPress.Weber,S.,1997,TheEndoftheBusinessCycle?,ForeignAffairs,JulyPAugust.Zarnowitz,V.,1992,BusinessCycles:Theory,History,Indicators,andForecasting,UniversityofChicagoPress.TheStabilizationofU.S.BusinessCycle:ALiteratureSurveyCaoYongfu(InstituteofWorldEconomyandPolitics,ChineseAcademyofSocialSciences)Abstract:TheU.S.economyhasbecomemorestableafterWorldWar.Andsincethemid21980s,thereductionofU.S.businesscyclevolatilitywasalsosignificant.Thecausesofstabilizationarecomplicated,whichhavecausedintensedebateintheareaofmacroeconomics.ThispapermakesaliteraturesurveyonthistopicandprovidessomepolicysuggestionsforChina.KeyWords:BusinessCycle;Stabilization;Impulse;PropagationMechanismJELClassi