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3(310013)(510275):,,,,;;,,,SARS:SARS3,,,:Barro(1990),Arrow2Kurz(1970)Chamley(1985),Oates(1993)DavoodiZou(1998)Bird(1993)Zou(1996)Gong(2002,2003),,;,,;,,,,:;;,;,SARS,1%(),1994,,19771980,,,,,,,04:,1994,,,1994,,,,,,()11,,,,,(,),,,C(U=U(C)),(),()():U=U(I,C)(1)T=T(I,C)(2):MRT=dIPdC=-5T5C5T5I(3)MRS=dIPdC=-5U5C5U5I(4),:MRT=-PCPPI=-p=MRS(5)p,(PPF)(p0)1,,p1,p0,p1E0E1,E1MRT1p1,,1420056E1PPF,,V,();,,,,,,(),,()PPF,E1(),:(PPF)(p1),p1,E1,,21(PPF)(p1),(E1)PPFp1,pp0MRTMRT0,(),,(),(),(),1;,11,12T0,T;VT0E0(),E01,E1E112,()11,,,24::,,21,,,,,,,,31,;,,,,,:,()11,:max0lncexp(-t)dt(6)c,lnc,,,,T=T(I,C)=IaCb,CI:MRTC,I=MRSC,I=dCdI=-5T5I5T5C=-abCI(7),,,:Ûkp=1ckp(y-tey-c)(8)y=kpks(9)(8),;(9)kp;ks3420056(),a1b1,();t;e,1ckp;cPkpCI,;(cPkpCI),21,:maxs,e,ks0elnsexp(-t)dt(10)s;elns,e;,:Ûks=1sks(tey-s)(11)ks;,1sks();,sPks;(sPksCI),31,,,,()(),(11)(8)(9)seks(10)(8)(9)(6),()11Hamilton,sks=ckp=,:Hss,e,ks=exp(-t)elns+s(tey-s)+p(y-tey-c)(12):es-2s=0(13)(s-p)ty-e2lns=0(14)s(-1)-1teskpk-2s+p-1(1-te)ck-1pk-1s-+Ûs=0(15)44:e=1,;e1,;e1,,e1,;e1,-1sk-1s(tekpks-s)-Ûks=0(16),:Ûee+2Ûss=kpk-1s-22eks+2lns1te-1+1(17)21Hamilton,:Hpc,t,kp=exp(-t){lnc+1(y-tey-c)+2[kpk-1s-2[2-1eks+2lns(t-1e-1-1)+1]}(18):c-1=0(19)222(lns)e-1t-2-1ekpks=0(20)1-1(-1)c(1-te)k-2pks+2k-1pk-1s-+Û1=0(21)[(1-te)kpks-c]-Ûkp=0(22),:2Ûcc=-12(kp-)+(1-te)k-1pks+()-1(te)2k2pk2-1sPlns(23)31,ÛePe=0,,,ÛcPc=ÛkpPkp=ÛsPs=ÛksPks=,(23)(22)(17)(16),()(ctsekpks),,,,(16)s:s=tey+(24)(24)(17)(23),(17)(23),:4=-2+yks+(1-te)ykp-2-12eks+-12(kp-)-221-tetelntey++(tey)2P(kslntey+)(25)cs,()(),(cs),(kpks)(te);,,,,5420056(25),(te)()()(),(te)()()11:==015,=0108,=0117,=0134,=017,=017,=0144,=0124,yPks=1122,yPkp=0161,=010873,t=011,e=2,y=210316:1990,2002(GDP)5117,4124,8148(t)(e),te=012,t,,te:1010873010917010953010989011018011054011067t011011101120113011401150116e2118211671154114311331125,t=011t=0116,()010873011067,22%,11:;014321,=sks=ckp,sPkscPkp,,,:2()01087301086401085401084401083301082201080901240123012201210120011901183()010873010879010885010891010896010902010908014401430142014101400139013864:,,,;,,1,,;,,,,,2:,,,012731,4010873010864010855010846010837010828010819017001710172017301740175017650108730109010109290109580109880110180110480170017101720173017401750176,,,,;,3:,;01782122,41,(2122)(0178)te(0143)(0127),,(),,,SARS2000,400,(),100,,(25),=cP(kp),=sP(ks)kp(c=5),c20004%;ks(s=1),s4004%;1,1001%,SARS117420056,==015,=0108;,t=011,e=2,==017;(1992),,yPks=1122,yPkp=0161(kp=2ks);(c=015y,s=011y),=0144,=0124,2003,919%,()(),1990GDP(19912001),:GGDP(L)=-0101369+1102047GGDPR2=019939(-5162)(38141)(26),GGDP(L),GGDP20038173%,:2002666,kp,ks,(19912001),kpks;(gdp)kpks,:log(gdp)=412347+011689log(kp)+013415log(ks)R2=019996(63135)(3151)(7102)(27)=0117,=0134(25),y=210316,21SARSSARS,c,20032000,4%;,,,;,,;,66SARS0170001684016920169601500019000180001700010873010681010702010739010749,(25),=0107492003016%,GDP811%31400,100()1%,7,,=010866,2003016%,GDP912%84:701700016840169201696015000190001800017000170001716017080170401087301084101085701089201086641,,SARS:,,;,SARS,,,;,,811%912%,SARScs,SARS,,SARScs,,,,:1.,,2.,,3.,SARS,:1.SARS;,2003811%2.,2003912%,2003:,()21,2002:,4,2002:,()21,2002:,23,2002:,2,2002:,109420056,2002:,2,2003::,1,2002::,6,2003:,1,2003:,1,2002:,8,2002:,7,2002:,11,2003:,3Arrow,K.andM..Kurz,1970,PublicInvestment,theRateofReturnandOptimalFiscalPolicy.JohnsHopkinsUniversityPress.Aschauer,D.,1989,IsGovernmentSpendingProductive?JournalofMonetaryEconomics,23:177200.Barro,R.J.,1990,GovernmentSpendinginaSimpleModeofEndogenousGrowth,JournalofPoliticalEconomy98,S103125.Bird,R.,1993,ThreadingtheFiscalLabyrinth:SomeIssuesinFiscalDecentralization,NationalTaxJournalXLVI,207227.Brueckner,J.,1996,FiscalFederalismandCapitalAccumulation,Mimeo,UniversityofIllinoisatUrbana2Champaign.Chamley,C.,1985,EfficientTaxationinaStylizedModelofIntertemporalGeneralEquilibrium,InternationalEconomicReview26,451468.Davoodi,H.andH.Zou,1998,FiscalDecentralizationandEconomicGrowth:ACross2countryStudy,JournalofUrbanEconomics43,244257.Gong,L.andH.Zou,2002,OptimalTaxationandIntergovernmentalTransferinaDynamicModelwithMultipleLevelsofGovernment,JournalofEconomicDynamicsandControl26:19752003.Gong,L.andH.Zou,2003,Taxes,FederalTransfer,GovernmentAccumulation,andEndogeneousGrowth,AnnalsofEconomicsandFinance4(1).Jones,L.,Manuelli,R.andRossi,P.,1993,OptimalTaxationinModelsofEndogenousGrowth,JournalofPoliticalEconomy101,485517.Lucas,R.,1990,Supply2sideEconomics:AnAnalyticalReview,OxfordEconomicPapers42,293316.Lucas,R.andStokey,N.,1983,OpticalFiscalandMonetaryPolicyinanEconomywithoutCapital,JournalofMonetaryEconomics12,5593.Oates,W.,1993,FiscalDecentralizationandEconomicDevelopment,NationalTaxJournalXLVI,237243.Zou,H.,1996,Taxes,FederalGrants,LucasPublicSpendingandGrowth,JournalofUrbanEconomics39,303317.FiscalDecentralization,TransformCoefficientandEconomicGrowthYunHe&ShuYuan(SchoolofETM,ZhejiangSci2techUniversity;LiangnanCollege,SYSUniversity)Abstract:Undertheclassicalgrowthmodelandendogenousgrowthmodel,mostofthepastliteraturespayattentiontotheanalysishowscalefactorandsupplyfactordetermineeco