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61clamouringfortheirfirstsetofwheels.ForthewholeworldtocatchupwithAmericanlevelsofcarownership,theglobalfleetwouldhavetoquadruple.Evenafractionofthatgrowthwouldpresentfearsomechallenges,fromcongestionandthepriceoffueltopollutionandglobalwarming.今天，汽车似乎已经在为下一波进化的到来做准备。改变之一与汽车排放有关。随着新兴市场越来越富有，新的消费大军嚷嚷着要买他们的第一辆车。在汽车保有量上如果全球都达到美国的水平，总量上还要翻两番。哪怕是这一增加的零头，都意味着可怕的挑战，从拥堵和油价，到污染和全球变暖。Yet,asourspecialreportthisweekargues,stricterregulationsandsmartertechnologyaremakingcarscleaner,morefuel-efficientandsaferthaneverbefore.China,itscitieschokedinsmog,isfollowingEuropeinimposingcurbsonemissionsofnoxiousnitrogenoxidesandfinesootparticles.Regulatorsinmostbigcarmarketsaredemandingdeepcutsinthecarbondioxideemittedfromcarexhausts.Andcarmakersarebeingremarkablyinventiveinfindingwaystocomply.然而正如本周特别报道所述，更加严格的法规和更智能的技术，使得汽车前所未有地更加清洁、省油和安全。饱受烟雾困扰的中国，正效仿欧洲对有害的氮氧化物与微小颗粒排放进行控制。在主要的汽车销售大国里，立法者要求大幅削减汽车尾气中的二氧化碳，而汽车制造商们在设法满足法规要求方面，也相当具有创造性。Granted,battery-poweredcarshavedisappointed.Theyremainexpensive,lackrangeandaresometimesdirtierthantheylook—forexample,iftheyrunonelectricityfromcoal-firedpowerstations.Butcarcompaniesareinvestingheavilyinothercleantechnologies.Futuremotoristswillhaveawideningchoiceofsuper-efficientpetrolanddieselcars,hybrids(whichswitchbetweenbatteriesandaninternal-combustionengine)andmodelsthatrunonnaturalgasorhydrogen.Asforthepurelyelectriccar,itstimewilldoubtlesscome.的确，电池驱动汽车令人不甚满意，昂贵，续航短，有时还比看起来要脏――比如说它运行所用的电力来自于燃煤电厂的话。但汽车厂商正投入巨资用于开发其它清洁技术。未来轮上一族有更大的选择余地：超能效汽油与柴油车，混动车（可在电池和内燃机之间切换），还有使用天然气或氢气的车型。至于纯电动汽车，它的时代无疑终将到来。Towardsthedriverless,near-crashlesscar目标无人驾驶，不会撞车Meanwhile,avarietyof“driverassistance”technologiesareappearingonnewcars,whichwillnotonlytakealotofthestressoutofdrivingintrafficbutalsopreventmanyaccidents.Moreandmorenewcarscanreverse-park,readtrafficsigns,maintainasafedistanceinsteadytrafficandbrakeautomaticallytoavoidcrashes.Somecarmakersarepromisingtechnologythatdetectspedestriansandcyclists,againoverrulingthedriverandstoppingthevehiclebeforeithitsthem.Anumberoffirms,includingGoogle,arebusytryingtotakedriverassistancetoitslogicalconclusionbycreatingcarsthatdrivethemselvestoachosen62destinationwithoutahumanatthecontrols.Thisiswhereitgetsexciting.与此同时，在新车上正涌现出各种“辅助驾驶”技术，它们既可减轻堵车时的许多压力，也可以避免许多事故。越来越多的新车可以自动泊车，读取路牌，在稳定的车流中保持安全距离，还可以自动刹车以避免事故。有些车商承诺开发一项技术可以探测行人与骑车人，在碰撞发生前否定驾车人的意图并将车停住。包括Google在内的许多公司，正努力使辅助驾驶顺理成章地转变为无人驾驶，让车辆自动行驶到指定地点而无需人工控制。这很令人激动。SergeyBrin,aco-founderofGoogle,predictsthatdriverlesscarswillbereadyforsaletocustomerswithinfiveyears.Thatmaybeoptimistic,buttheprototypesthatGooglealreadyusestoferryitsstaff(andarecentvisitorfromTheEconomist)alongCalifornianfreewaysareimpressive.Googleisseekingtooffertheworldadriverlesscarbuiltfromscratch,butitismorelikelytoevolve,andbeacceptedbydrivers,instages.Google的联合创始人谢尔盖•布林预言五年内消费者将可以购买无人驾驶汽车。这也许乐观了一点，但Google已经用于在加州高速公路上接送员工（昀近还有一位来自《经济学人》的客人）的原型车让人印象深刻。Google想为世界直接提供一辆无人驾驶汽车，但更可能是逐步发展，慢慢为驾车人所接受。Assensorsandassisted-drivingsoftwaredemonstratetheirabilitytocutaccidents,regulatorswillmovetomakethemcompulsoryforallnewcars.Insurersarealreadypressingmotoriststoacceptblackboxesthatmeasurehowcarefullytheydrive:thesewillprovideamassofdatawhichislikelytoshowthatputtingthecaronautopilotisoftensaferthandrivingit.Computersneverdrivedrunkorwhiletexting.传感器和辅助驾驶软件已经证明它们有助于减少事故，立法者也会让所有新车强制安装这些设备。保险商已经在施压让驾车人接受黑匣子－－可以测量驾驶的谨慎程度：这将提供大量数据用于证明汽车自动巡航常常比有人驾驶更安全。电脑绝不会酒后驾驶，或是一边开车一边发短信。Ifandwhencarsgocompletelydriverless—forthosewhowantthis—thebenefitswillbeenormous.Googlegaveatastebyputtingablindmaninaprototypeandfilminghimbeingdrivenofftobuytakeawaytacos.Hugenumbersofelderlyanddisabledpeoplecouldregaintheirpersonalmobility.Theyoungwillnothavetopaycripplingmotorinsurance,becausetheirrecklesshandsandfeetwillnolongertouchthewheelortheaccelerator.Thecolossaltollofdeathsandinjuriesfromroadaccidents—1.2mkilledayearworldwide,and2mhospitalvisitsayearinAmericaalone—shouldtumbledown,alongwiththecoststohealthsystemsandinsurers.如果汽车昀终无人驾驶――对于乐见其成的人来说――好处将是巨大的。Google尝试过让盲人乘坐它的原型车，并拍摄他如何把车“开走”去买外带玉米饼的。无数的老年人和残疾人士可以从此重新获得个人移动能力。年轻人也不用再买要命的车险，因为他们冒失的手脚不会再碰方向盘或是油门。道路事故伤亡的巨大数字――全球每年死亡120万，单是美国每年就有200万就医――将不复存在，还有医疗和保险的支出。63Driverlesscarsshouldalsoeasecongestionandsavefuel.Computersbrakefasterthanhumans.Andtheycansensewhencarsaheadofthemarebraking.Sodriverlesscarswillbeabletodrivemuchclosertoeachotherthanhumanssafelycan.Onmotorwaystheycouldformfuel-efficient“roadtrains”,glidingalongintheslipstreamofthevehicleinfront.Peoplewhocommutebycarwillgainhourseachdaytowork,restorreadanewspaper.无人驾驶也将缓解拥堵和节省燃油。电脑刹车比人更快，还能感知前方的车正在刹车。因此无人驾驶汽车在保证安全的前提下可以比有人驾驶的车开得更近。在高速上，它们可以组成省油的“公路火车”，沿着前方车辆的气流滑行。开车上下班的人们将每天节省数小时来工作，休息或看报。Roadblocksahead前方的困难Somecarmakersthinkthisvisionofthefutureis(asHenryFordoncesaidofhistory)bunk.Peoplewillbetooterrifiedtohurtledownthemotorwayinavehicletheydonotcontrol:computerscrash,don’tthey?Carmakerswhoseself-drivingtechnologyisimplicatedinaccidentsmightfaceruinouslyexpensivelawsuits,andbeputoffcontinuingtodevelopit.有些车商认为这种对未来的憧憬是（正如亨利•福特以前曾说过）不切实际的。人们会害怕，不敢坐着他们所不能控制的汽车开上高速公路：电脑会死机，对