足球经济学(高盛报告)

TThheeWWoorrllddCCuuppaannddEEccoonnoommiiccss22000066WorldCupVersion3.qxp03/05/200612:29Page1May2006TheWorldCupandEconomics2006GoldmanSachsEconomicResearchContentsIntroduction1JoschkaFischer:SoccerandGlobalisation2GordonBrown:Let’sBringBacktheCup3DavidBeckham’sDreamTeam4TheHistoryoftheWorldCup5CountryReportsAngola9Argentina10Australia12Brazil(contributedbyArminioFraga)14CostaRica(contributedbyO.SotoEnríquez)16Croatia17CzechRepublic18Ecuador19England20France22Germany24Ghana(inclcontributionfromJuneSarpong)26Iran28WorldCupGroups,Fixtures&VenuesCentrePull-OutItaly29IvoryCoast31Japan32Mexico34Netherlands(contributedbyEdwinvanderSar)36Paraguay38Poland40Portugal41SaudiArabia42Serbia&Montenegro43SouthKorea44Spain45Sweden46Switzerland47Togo48Trinidad&Tobago49Tunisia50Ukraine51USA52WhoWillMakeittotheSemis?53SirAlexFerguson’sAll-TimeBritishDreamTeams54GoldmanSachsWorldCupProbabilityStudy56The2006WorldCupDreamTeam(SelectedbyYou!)57Copyright2006TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.Allrightsreserved.Thismaterialshouldnotbeconstruedasanoffertosellorthesolicitationofanoffertobuyanysecurityinanyjurisdictionwheresuchanofferorsolicitationwouldbeillegal.Wearenotsolicitinganyactionbasedonthismaterial.ItisforthegeneralinformationofclientsofTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.Itdoesnotconstituteapersonalrecommendationortakeintoaccounttheparticularinvestmentobjectives,financialsituations,orneedsofindividualclients.Beforeactingonanyadviceorrecommendationinthismaterial,clientsshouldconsiderwhetheritissuitablefortheirparticularcircumstancesand,ifnecessary,seekprofessionaladvice.Thepriceandvalueoftheinvestmentsreferredtointhismaterialandtheincomefromthemmaygodownaswellasup,andinvestorsmayrealizelossesonanyinvestments.Pastperformanceisnotaguidetofutureperformance.Futurereturnsarenotguaranteed,andalossoforiginalcapitalmayoccur.TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.doesnotprovidetaxadvicetoitsclients,andallinvestorsarestronglyadvisedtoconsultwiththeirtaxadvisersregardinganypotentialinvestment.Certaintransactions-includingthoseinvolvingfutures,options,andotherderivativesaswellasnon-investment-gradesecurities-giverisetosubstantialriskandarenotsuitableforallinvestors.Thematerialisbasedoninformationthatweconsiderreliable,butwedonotrepresentthatitisaccurateorcomplete,anditshouldnotbereliedonassuch.Opinionsexpressedareourcurrentopinionsasofthedateappearingonthismaterialonly.Weendeavortoupdateonareasonablebasistheinformationdiscussedinthismaterial,butregulatory,compliance,orotherreasonsmaypreventusfromdoingso.Weandouraffiliates,officers,directors,andemployees,includingpersonsinvolvedinthepreparationorissuanceofthismaterial,mayfromtimetotimehave“long”or“short”positionsin,actasprincipalin,andbuyorsellthesecuritiesorderivatives(includingoptions)thereofofcompaniesmentionedherein.ForpurposesofcalculatingwhetherTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.beneficiallyownsorcontrols,includinghavingtherighttovotefordirectors,1%ofmoreofaclassofthecommonequitysecurityofthesubjectissuerofaresearchreport,TheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.includesallderivativesthat,bytheirterms,givearighttoacquirethecommonequitysecuritywithin60daysthroughtheconversionorexerciseofawarrant,option,orotherrightbutdoesnotaggregateaccountsmanagedbyGoldmanSachsAssetManagement.Nopartofthismaterialmaybe(i)copied,photocopied,orduplicatedinanyformbyanymeansor(ii)redistributedwithoutTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.’spriorwrittenconsent.TheGlobalInvestmentResearchDivisionofGoldmanSachsproducesanddistributesresearchproductsforclientsofGoldmanSachs,andpursuanttocertaincontractualarrangements,onaglobalbasis.AnalystsbasedinGoldmanSachsofficesaroundtheworldproduceequityresearchonindustriesandcompanies,andresearchonmacroeconomics,currencies,commoditiesandportfoliostrategy.ThisresearchisdisseminatedinAustraliabyGoldmanSachsJBWerePtyLtd(ABN21006797897)onbehalfofGoldmanSachs;inCanadabyGoldmanSachsCanadaInc.regardingCanadianequitiesandbyGoldmanSachs&Co.(allotherresearch);inGermanybyGoldmanSachs&Co.oHG;inHongKongbyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.;inJapanbyGoldmanSachs(Japan)Ltd;intheRepublicofKoreabyGoldmanSachs(Asia)L.L.C.,SeoulBranch;inNewZealandbyGoldmanSachsJBWere(NZ)LimitedonbehalfofGoldmanSachs;inSingaporebyGoldmanSachs(Singapore)Pte.(CompanyNumber:198602165W);andintheUnitedStatesofAmericabyGoldman,Sachs&Co.GoldmanSachsInternationalhasapprovedthisresearchinconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdomandEuropeanUnion.ThismaterialhasbeenissuedbyTheGoldmanSachsGroup,Inc.and/oroneofitsaffiliatesandhasbeenapprovedforthepurposesofsection21oftheFinancialServicesandMarketsAct2000byGoldmanSachsInternational,whichisregulatedbytheFinancialServicesAuthority,inconnectionwithitsdistributionintheUnitedKingdom,andbyGoldmanSachsCanada,inconnectionwithitsdistributioninCanada.GoldmanSachsInternationalanditsnon-USaffiliatesmay,totheextentpermittedunderapplicablelaw,haveactedonorusedthisresearch,totheextentthatitrelatestonon-USissuers,priortoorimmediatelyfollowingitspublication.Foreign-currency-denominatedsecuritiesaresubjecttofluctuationsinexchangeratesthatcouldhaveanadverseeffectonth