近年来中国GDP增长核算：目前状态

1GDP*GDP,GDP,207020,,20,1995,(2002)1GDP,,,2,19781999GDP1998,GDP,,,,1998GDP8%,,,,,,1998GDP7.8%,*ThomasG.Rawski,DepartmentofEconomics,UniversityofPittsburgh,PittsburghPA15260USA(412)[e-mail],,LorenBrandtJamesBrockDavidCowhigGaryJeffersonAlbertKeidelNicholasLardyXIAOWeiZHANGYifan,(2002)22070,1978197919.4%17.4%21998,,,,,GDP,GDP,3,199819992%,,2000,,,19972001,,GDP,,12%,4,,,,,(),(),,(Low-GrowthScenario),GDP,,,()GDP7%8%,,,,GDPGDP,,GDPGDP,3,,,1998GDP,4~tgrawski35,,,,2090,(Sinton,2001),GDP()(Lardy,2002),,,1997200190%(Lardy,2002),6,,19971998,Chen(2001:p.13)….,……,…,…,(,20016),,90%,,,,,7()Lardy,,1997200190%(),,Lardy(2002),GDP,,,,199720013040%,5,,,Sinton(2001)4,Lard,,1998,81998,1998,GDP,199819991(Cheng,1999),ΔT=e*ΔP+E*ΔY(1)ΔT,ΔPΔY,e(),E,e=0.6E=1.7,(Wingrove,etal.,1998:p.18)1998,3040%1999,199719980.700.64,8.6,199619971998199990.4,10199719986,2001200027.9%,20023.4%7,,819999169:p.1310,,,00,0,(Guo,2002)5(3.4%(,2002)),199719986%(Jiao,2000),,ΔY8%10%,ΔY8%,ΔTΔT=0.6*8.6%+1.7*8%=18.8%.(2)(2),3.4%,19971998,,ΔY,e,E,ΔP,,,,,199719986%6%,,,1998,,20018.5%,(Fu,2002)…,…,20%80%,2002,,,20011,:1997,,11,,,,11DavidCowhig6(Kynge,2002b)2001,1996200017.0%(Yan,2002,2001437)20027,,(Guo,2002)…,20023,12,,(Tao,2000,2000)13,,…,14,,,,78%78%,012,1)PayHikes(2001)XiaoHu(2002)13(Pump-priming,2002),,199814,ChinaDaily23-24February,2002p.315ChinaDailyBusinessWeekly,29January-4February2002:p.47,,1998,,,(Wei,2002;Zhong,2002)78%,1678%,0,,,,20023,(Zhu,2002)(Xu,2002a),1998GDP1.5,19992,20001.7,20011.8,17,1998GDP6.3%,19995.2%,,,,20003,(Nation,2000p.5)199931998,,18Guan(2000)200012,,,………,,1916,17GDP,(2002:p.29)18DavidCowhig19,…(2002)9%,,(Fu,2001)8200111,GDP,GDP,(,2001)20022,(Kynge,2002a),20023,(ChinaDaily),(Xu,2002b),,(Economy,2002),,,,,,,20,21,,,,20()(2002)21,,,,GDP9,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1998GDP,,,GDP,ChenXiwen,“AnalysisoftheSituationofAgricultureandtheRuralEconomyintheFirstHalfof2001”,ChinaDevelopmentReview,2001,3(4),7-18.Economy,“EconomyDoing'BetterThanExpected.ChinaDaily,16July,2002p.6.FuJing,“GrowthRequiresUnitedEfforts.”ChinaDaily,7December,2001,p.1.FuJing,ConfidenceShowninNation'sFuture.ChinaDaily,25February,2002,p.1.GuanYixin,“PursuingStableDevelopment.”ChinaDaily,26December,2000,p.4.GuoAibing,CAACAngryOverCheapTickets.”ChinaDaily,21June,2002,p.2.,“,”,,2001947,2002,,2002GuoTongge,China'sEconomyFeelsDeflationaryPressure.”ChinaDailyBusinessWeekly,2-8July,2002,p.24.Hikes,“PayHikesGoodforEquity,Economy.”ChinaDaily,31October,2001,p.4.JiaoXiaoyang,“ReformsonTrack.”ChinaDaily,27December,2000,p.4.Kynge,James,“China'sDataChief'Confident'AboutStatistics.”FinancialTimes(electronicarchive).1March,2002b.Kynge,James,“PyramidofPowerBehindNumbersGame.”FinancialTimes(electronicarchive).28February,2002a.LardyNicholas,“ChinaWillKeepGrowing.”WallStreetJournalonline,14June,2002.LiuShijinandZhangLiqun,“AnAnalysisoftheCurrentEconomicSituationandSeveralPolicySuggestions.”ChinaDevelopmentReview,2002,4(3),25-32.10Nation,NationMovesBoldlyForward”(PremierZhuRongji’sGovernmentWorkReport),ChinaDaily.6March2000,p.5.NiHongri,SlightTaxReadjustmentSuggested.”ChinaDaily,22-23September,2001,p.4.Pump-Priming,“Pump-primingNeededtoBoostBuying.”ChinaDaily,3June,2002,p.4.GDPGDP200221Sinton,JonathanE,“AccuracyandReliabilityofChina'sEnergyStatistics.”ChinaEconomicReview2001,12,373-383.,“”,,200010,1314WeiYihuo,“StillTooEarlytoCeaseProactiveFiscalPolicy.”ChinaDailyBusinessWeekly,18-24June,2002:5.Wingrove,EarlR.,Gaier,EricM.andSantmire,TaraE.,TheASACAirCarrierInvestmentModel(ThirdGeneration).McLean,VA:LogisticsManagementInstitute,1998.XiaoHu,“LocalOfficials'WagesStillNotPaid.”ChinaDaily,1March,2002:3.XuDashan,“High-TechtoHelpBuildQualityInformationNetwork.”ChinaDaily,6May,2002b,p.6.XuDashan,“ItIsUrgenttoIncreaseFiscalRevenue.”ChinaDaily,17April,2002a,p.2.XueCheng,“China'sAirlinesCutLosses.”ChinaDaily,4August,1999,P.5.YanXianpu,“RuralMarketFailingtoSpurDomesticDemand.”ChinaDailyBusinessWeekly,20-26August,2002,p.15.,“”,20008,1622,“,20024,2835,,(),,,2001ZhongHe,StrongInvestmentMomentumContinues.”ChinaDailyBusinessWeekly,25June-1July,2002,P.24.ZhuRongji(PressConference),ZhuConfidentAboutGrowthRateCall”,ChinaDaily,2002,16-17March:4.,,200112,56MeasuringChina’sRecentGDPGrowth:WheredoWeStand?THOMASG.RAWSKIUniversityofPittsburghAbstractThispaperdiscussesmeasuringChina’srecentGDPgrowth.Firstly,wereviewspecificcriticismsofthelowgrowthscenario,andthenmakeasummaryofevidencesupportingthislow-growthperspective.JELClassificationC82,N15,O40,