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20015:,,,,11221:,,,927,1960,,;,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,5©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,(),:,,,,,?,,,,;?1871,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;;,,;,,,,,,,,(),(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,?,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,(,,),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,(),;,,,,,7©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,;,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,;;,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,:,,,:8©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,?:,,()();,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,;,,,,,50,,,,,;,,,,,,?,,,,Cobb2Douglas,:11GDP,2090,1997GDP7477214,9©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.62144%,4668719,37156%,2808415,62%GDP,1997GDP818%,GDPGDP,GDP818,2102,617821,,,1%,0152%;,,(1%,01038,010000407),,,900(01038ö010000407)31,19786118%,59%1999,4119%,5216%,60%,40%-49%201978,,,,,,,,,,,?,,,,,,,,,,,,?,()01©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(,,,),,,,,,()(),(),,,,,,11©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,21©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,RE,,,,,,,,,,,,2070,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,20,1999,,31JournalofMonetaryEconomics12(1983)43479©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.2812%,4413%,7118%,,,()5314%,84%,6513%2ö3,1ö3,,2000110,,,5912%,1615%,11%,,,,1999,AB364618,5500,20,,,,?,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2080,,,,,,,,,,,,4120015,39200064420012,2-3©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,7000,,7000,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,1998,8727,91533,70,36,14,,,,,,,,51:,,1999942001818-20©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2000,62656,32140,1851,31196%,70%,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,207061©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,10,1997,,,,,,,,,,,,1997140,1998450,19991000,,,OECD24,(24155%)(29164%)(25178%)(28130%)(34175%)5OECD,24%,71©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,?,,,19801998,318%,816%,,,,,1997,,,,19961998,8014%7916%7816%;,,,,1980,6316%,19983118%,32;76%2615%,50;8115%7714%,411,,,,,,,,1992,9517%,19939214%,19949015%,19959010%,19968710%,199780%,1998,21;1999,25,,,,,,,,;,,(97)2620%,30%,,,,,,,81,199771,3000,,31%,,15-16%(,1999):,1998,3881999:1998,74©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.1999,1413%1ö199460%199456%199455%199454%199347%199347%199414%:,19931994,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,19788%,199035%,199450(,1997),2,1990,,,40%(,70%),91,:,,1999,5157%3163%,51%,19941998,19901993,,1994,,70%,30%,©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.2:3ö%19902951111393471219913323191545461519923939121833461519934916122438491619946656145244781819958100106442791519969080107095781219979405136285661819989296155774621119999875155034511024%,,?(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,1998,,,24%,2231,1459(1512),53,719,,,(),:2231,,,0241%,914%;,,,©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,(,2000),:(),,(),;,,,,,,,,(,),,15%30%,1%(Corsetti1994,CorsettiandSchmidet2Hebbel1997),,,:,,()(),,,,,,,,,Pareto,,:(Pareto)()(),:Pareto,,,,,,(bargaining),12©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,;,,(),,,,,,,,,,:,,,,;,,,,,,,(),,,,,,,22,(Pricetaker)(varian(1940),kreps(1990)),,,,,,,©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,:,pareto,Pareto,,()(),,,,,:,,,,,,,,,(),,pareto,,,,,(),,,,,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),,,,,32©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,:,;(),;,,,,,,:,,21,:IT,,,,,,,,,,FDI20002700,70%,,,80,35,200,,:(1),;(2),;(3),(4)42©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,WTO,,,200010172000,,2000367,,123(34)(30),,,1999,60,199822%,,,,;;;,,,,,,,,IT,,ITIT,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,11,,,,:;;21522001127,©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.:,:;,,,,,,31,,,,,20002000,2000,19981999.com,,,,,,,11,(1)(2)(3)21(1),,,,;,,,:(1);(2),(3),,,,,,,,,,62http:öö©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(2),,,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,;,;,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,;,,,,,,,,,,;,,,,:11187272©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,90,,,,,,,1876,,189321,,,,,,,116,,1413,,15,,,,,,,,31,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(),?:,,,,,,,,1884,,90,,,40,,,,,,,,,,,,,82©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,18841895,,,,,,,19,,,,,,,,,,102000,,,,:,,,,,,:;;9092©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.90,,,,;,,,130,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,80,,,,,,,,,,,,,,207080,,,,,,,,,,,03©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,;,19976,,19984,,19987,199712,,,121112,,,,;,,,,,,;,,;,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,,;,,,,:,13©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,18681940,,,,,,,,23©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,