高盛公司全球经济报告（英文版）

Importantdisclosuresappearattheendofthisdocument.DreamingWithBRICs:ThePathto2050DominicWilsonRoopaPurushothaman1stOctober2003GlobalEconomicsPaperNo:99
Overthenext50years,Brazil,Russia,IndiaandChina—theBRICseconomies—couldbecomeamuchlargerforceintheworldeconomy.WemapoutGDPgrowth,incomepercapitaandcurrencymovementsintheBRICseconomiesuntil2050.
Theresultsarestartling.Ifthingsgoright,inlessthan40years,theBRICseconomiestogethercouldbelargerthantheG6inUSdollarterms.By2025theycouldaccountforoverhalfthesizeoftheG6.OfthecurrentG6,onlytheUSandJapanmaybeamongthesixlargesteconomiesinUSdollartermsin2050.
Thelistoftheworld’stenlargesteconomiesmaylookquitedifferentin2050.Thelargesteconomiesintheworld(byGDP)maynolongerbetherichest(byincomepercapita),makingstrategicchoicesforfirmsmorecomplex.EconomicResearchfromtheGSFinancialWorkbench®at’Neill,PauloLeme,SandraLawson,WarrenPearsonandourregionaleconomistsfortheircontributionstothispaper.GlobalPaperNo9921stOctober2003SUMMARY
Overthenext50years,Brazil,Russia,IndiaandChina—theBRICseconomies—couldbecomeamuchlargerforceintheworldeconomy.Usingthelatestdemographicprojectionsandamodelofcapitalaccumulationandproductivitygrowth,wemapoutGDPgrowth,incomepercapitaandcurrencymovementsintheBRICseconomiesuntil2050.
Theresultsarestartling.Ifthingsgoright,inlessthan40years,theBRICseconomiestogethercouldbelargerthantheG6inUSdollarterms.By2025theycouldaccountforoverhalfthesizeoftheG6.Currentlytheyareworthlessthan15%.OfthecurrentG6,onlytheUSandJapanmaybeamongthesixlargesteconomiesinUSdollartermsin2050.
Abouttwo-thirdsoftheincreaseinUSdollarGDPfromtheBRICsshouldcomefromhigherrealgrowth,withthebalancethroughcurrencyappreciation.TheBRICs’realexchangeratescouldappreciatebyupto300%overthenext50years(anaverageof2.5%ayear).
TheshiftinGDPrelativetotheG6takesplacesteadilyovertheperiod,butismostdramaticinthefirst30years.GrowthfortheBRICsislikelytoslowsignificantlytowardtheendoftheperiod,withonlyIndiaseeinggrowthratessignificantlyabove3%by2050.AndindividualsintheBRICsarestilllikelytobepooreronaveragethanindividualsintheG6economies,withtheexceptionofRussia.China’spercapitaincomecouldberoughlywhatthedevelopedeconomiesarenow(aboutUS$30,000percapita).
Asearlyas2009,theannualincreaseinUSdollarspendingfromtheBRICscouldbegreaterthanthatfromtheG6andmorethantwiceasmuchindollartermsasitisnow.By2025theannualincreaseinUSdollarspendingfromtheBRICscouldbetwicethatoftheG6,andfourtimeshigherby2050.
ThekeyassumptionunderlyingourprojectionsisthattheBRICsmaintainpoliciesanddevelopinstitutionsthataresupportiveofgrowth.EachoftheBRICsfacessignificantchallengesinkeepingdevelopmentontrack.Thismeansthatthereisagoodchancethatourprojectionsarenotmet,eitherthroughbadpolicyorbadluck.ButiftheBRICscomeanywhereclosetomeetingtheprojectionssetouthere,theimplicationsforthepatternofgrowthandeconomicactivitycouldbelarge.
TherelativeimportanceoftheBRICsasanengineofnewdemandgrowthandspendingpowermayshiftmoredramaticallyandquicklythanexpected.Highergrowthintheseeconomiescouldoffsettheimpactofgreyingpopulationsandslowergrowthintheadvancedeconomies.
Highergrowthmayleadtohigherreturnsandincreaseddemandforcapital.TheweightoftheBRICsininvestmentportfolioscouldrisesharply.Capitalflowsmightmovefurtherintheirfavour,promptingmajorcurrencyrealignments.
Risingincomesmayalsoseetheseeconomiesmovethroughthe‘sweetspot’ofgrowthfordifferentkindsofproducts,aslocalspendingpatternschange.Thiscouldbeanimportantdeterminantofdemandandpricingpatternsforarangeofcommodities.
Astoday’sadvancedeconomiesbecomeashrinkingpartoftheworldeconomy,theaccompanyingshiftsinspendingcouldprovidesignificantopportunitiesforglobalcompanies.Beinginvestedinandinvolvedintherightmarkets—particularlytherightemergingmarkets—maybecomeanincreasinglyimportantstrategicchoice.
Thelistoftheworld’stenlargesteconomiesmaylookquitedifferentin2050.Thelargesteconomiesintheworld(byGDP)maynolongerbetherichest(byincomepercapita),makingstrategicchoicesforfirmsmorecomplex.Theworldeconomyhaschangedalotoverthepast50years.Overthenext50,thechangescouldbeatleastasdramatic.Wehavehighlightedtheimportanceofthinkingaboutthedevelopingworldinourrecentglobalresearch,focusingonkeyfeaturesofdevelopmentandglobalisationthatwethinkareimportanttoinvestorswithalong-termperspective.Amajorthemeofthisworkhasbeenthat,overthenextfewdecades,thegrowthgeneratedbythelargedevelopingcountries,particularlytheBRICs(Brazil,Russia,IndiaandChina)couldbecomeamuchlargerforceintheworldeconomythanitisnow—andmuchlargerthanmanyinvestorscurrentlyexpect.Inthispiece,wegaugejusthowlargeaforcetheBRICscouldbecomeoverthenext50years.Wedothisnotsimplybyextrapolatingfromcurrentgrowthrates,butbysettingoutclearassumptionsabouthowtheprocessofgrowthanddevelopmentworksandapplyingaformalframeworktogeneratelong-termforecasts.WelookatourBRICsprojectionsrelativetolong-termprojectionsfortheG6(US,Japan,UK,Germany,FranceandItaly)1.Usingthelatestdemographicprojectionsandamodelofcapitalaccumulationandproductivitygrowth,wemapoutGDPgrowth,incom