[申银万国]阿里巴巴(1688HK)——盈利增长减速

ListedCompanyCompanyResearchMediaMar17,2010阿里巴巴(1688HK)——盈利增长减速，调低至中性，目标价17.20港币NeutralFinancialsummaryandvaluation:Downgrade200820092010E2011E2012ERevenue(RMBmillion)3,0043,8755,9708,0719,854MarketData:Mar,16-28.9854.0735.2022.09ClosingPrice(HKD)18.281,1551,0131,3651,9062,503PriceTarget(HKD)17.20-(12.25)34.7439.6431.32Triple-C0.230.200.270.380.50HSCEI119410.230.200.270.380.49HSCCI409531.9520.6427.2037.0447.5852-weekHigh/Low(HKD)22.50/7.1040.7637.5341.2150.2552.85MarketCap(HKDmillion)921250.001.130.000.170.23SharesOutstanding(million)5040P/E(x)70.7680.4659.9642.8832.62ExchangeRate(HKD/CNY)1.14P/B(x)21.7516.0116.2415.8315.49EV/EBITDA(x)70.7871.9951.6035.5226.18PricePerformanceChart:Note:DilutedEPSiscalculatedifalloutstandingconvertiblesecurities,suchasconvertiblepreferredshares,convertibledebentures,stockoptionsandwarrants,wereexercised.P/Eiscalculatedasclosingpricedividedbyeachyear’sEPS投资亮点:Source:BloombergRelatedResearch:[e-mail][e-mail](8621)63295888×[e-mail]阿里巴巴昨天发布了其2009年的业绩，年度EPS达到人民币0.20元，基本上符合我们的预期（0.19元）。实际EPS和我们预期的差异主要是来自2009年公司税率的下降。由于公司被认定为重点软件企业，税率享受10%。阿里巴巴的GoldSupplier高速增长，增加11000户达到96000户。虽然涨势凶猛，但是我们对于公司2010年的经营保持谨慎的态度。其原因如下。第一，阿里巴巴决定延长其投资计划来保持长期的增长，并再增加3%的毛利投入到其业务拓展领域。连续的投资和价格的下降反应了行业竞争的激烈。公司预计2010年公司的毛利率还会下降3%。2009年净毛利率达到31.3%，比2008年下降了13.2%。第二，我们认为公司的注册用户数增速会下降。公司的注册线上商店的增速很快，但是注册用户数的增速却有些减缓。这意味着一个卖家所对应的买家会下降，从而限制的付费账户的增长。最后，公司的估值太贵。如果公司以未来三年35%的CAGR增长，目前的估值也是60倍于2010年的EPS。所以考虑到更低的毛利率与放缓的增速，我们下调公司2010E-2012E的EPS至人民币0.27,0.38和0.50元。我们在2009年11月11日发布的报告里面所做的预测为2010年0.30元，2011年0.47元。同时我们下调阿里巴巴的评级，从增持下降到中性,新的目标价为17.2港币。Thecompanyoritsaffiliatemayhaveequitiesofthelistedcorporationreviewedauthorizedbylaw.Thecompanymayalsoprovideinvestmentbankingandconsultingservicetothelistedcorporation.TheCompanyfulfillsitsdutyofdis[e-mail]rehensiveunderstandingofthedisclosureinthelastpage.Mar2010CompanyCommentsPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage1InvestmentHighlight：Yesterday,Alibaba.comreported4Q09results,largelyinlinewithourexpectation.Readingof2009EPSdecreased11%toRMB0.20,whichwasabout5%higherthanourpreviousestimation.Thetaxrebateprogramgrantedtohigh-techcompaniescontributedtothehigherEPSgrowththanweexpected.Alibaba.comreportedstrongGoldSuppliersubscribergrowthof11,000toreachatotalof96,000,despitethemassiverenewalofexistingclientssignedinlate2008.However,for2010,wewillbemorecautiousonAlibaba.comforafewreasons.Firstly,Alibaba.comdecidestoextendtheinvestmentprogramtomaintainlong-termgrowthandwouldinvestanother3%marginin2010.Consistentinvestmentandpricecutsuggestsatougherbusinessenvironment.Themanagementteamguidedtheoperatingmarginwillslumpanother3%in2010althoughthebasisislow.Thepre-SBCnetprofitmarginwas31.3%in2009,downfrom44.5%in2008.Secondly,webelievesubscribergrowthwilldeclinetoamoremoderatelevel.Itissuggestedbytherapidgrowthofstorefrontswhiletheregisteredusersonlygrowmoderately.Thiswillrestrainthegrowthofpayingaccounts,asonesellerfacesmuchlessbuyersonaverageoverthepastfewquartersLastly,thevaluationof60x10EPEisnotattractivewithregardtoa3-yearCAGRof35%.Wecutour10-12EPSestimatestoRMB0.27,0.38and0.50tofactorinthelowermarginandslowgrowth.IssuedonNovember11th2009,ourearlyexpectationwasRMB0.30and0.47for2010and2011,respectively.WecuttheratingtoNeutralfromOutperformwithanewtargetpriceofHK$17.20.Mar2010CompanyCommentsPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage2AppendixChart1:CAGR35%for2010E-2011ErevenuesChart2:Operatingmarginof2010Ewillbelower02,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,000200820092010E2011E2012ERMBMn0%10%20%30%40%50%60%Revenues(LHS)Revenues%YoY(RHS)0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%200820092010E2011E2012EOperatingmarginSource：SWSResearchSource：Bloomberg,SWSResearchChart3:AlibabaismoreexpensivethanpeersPEcomparison-Chineseinternetcompanies020406080ALIBABA.COMLTDBAIDUINC-SPADRCTRIP.COM-ADRTENCENTHOLDINGSSINACORPNETDRAGONWEBSNETEASE.COM-ADRSOHU.COMINCGIANTINTERA-ADRSHANDAINTER-ADRKINGSOFTCORPPERFECTWORL-ADRCHANGYOU.COM-ADR2010PE2011PESource：SWSResearchMar2010CompanyCommentsPleaserefertothelastpageforimportantdisclosuresPage3Table1:ConsolidatedIncomeStatementofAlibabamillionyuan200820092010E2011E2012ERevenue3,0043,8755,9708,0719,854CostofSales4015348631,0741,313GrossProfit2,6033,3405,1076,9978,541OtherIncome167113927072Distributionexpenses1,1081,6242,4693,3583,977Adminstrativeexpenses5367941,3151,6851,949EBITDA1,0791,0431,4422,0502,762EBIT9599221,3221,9542,614FinanceCosts(239)(141)(172)(199)(237)Profitbeforetax1,1261,0351,4142,0242,686Incometaxexpense210163221316420Minorityinterests00665Profitfortheyear1,1551,0131,3651,9062,503InformationDisclosure：Theviewsexpressedinthisreportaccuratelyreflectthepersonalviewsoftheanalyst.Theanalystdeclaresthatneitherhe/shenorhis/herassociateservesasanofficerofnorhasanyfinancialinterestsinrelationtothelistedcorporationreviewedbytheanalyst.Noneo