(832003),,,:;;;;;,,,1958ModiglianiMillerM-M,,:,,()(Coase,1937),,,70,,,,,,,,(moralhazard)(adverseselection),,:,,x,w,r(),x0(),:xw+r,;wxw+r,;xw,;xw+r+,(,1996),,,,,,,,,,73200218©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,(Williamson)(1988),,(Hart,1995),,,(Aghion)(Bolton,1992),,,,(),,,1.,,,,,,:(1),,,,,,,,,(2),,,,,(Fama,1985),,,,(Carter,1992),,(3),,,;,2.,,,,,,,,,,:(1);(2)(),,,,:(1),,(2),,(Jensen,1986),,,(3),(Grossman)(Hart,1982),,,,,,,,,,,,,,:83200218©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.(1);(2),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,(,1999),,,,,(Myers,1984)(Peckingorder),,,,19701985,,(,1998),1984,,,1994,,(1)1(19921996):101992199319941995199610314129192313-19-2115:272113-4419-7412-8216444512201141531332146314481150175718::,19891996,1997::,19971215,,(2)219992000030%30%50%50%80%80%1999()247428411472000()26746935047::,2001111(Peckingorder),,,,,,(JensenMeckling,1976),:1.,,,,,,(34)93200218©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,(5),,,,,,,,3(%)()4415721964:3014482201819104161916-201191512517--141124194250122214175144101400175::,:,20004()(%)251433114115::,20001451992123119991231()(%)()(%)11471696912420071164198(1)2815041138111610736113(2)91051311459015119112(3)21804107401511131(4)61499142190116115(5)01851123361711119(6)()331211082.2111830175108118535102(1)A10193151878151392614(2)B1012514188141192416(3)H12415441023.681871003088195100::(2000),04200218©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.21(Jensen)(Meckling),,,(Morck,1988),05%,;25%,,25%,,,,,,(Jensen,1993)282,19851997(6),,,,,19971997A,010488%,140,706034127%(,2000)6282(%)19851991199752352826221983142141211::,,20013.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,4.,,,,,,,,,80,,(7),19701985211%,10(,1997)20001592,199(,2002),,,(8),,,14200218©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.7:198819891990199119921993199419951996227125572299297633374814428746737106778179236235407450414577::,2002.1819942000:(%)(%)(%)199416117511146113715580161111185719319952161101118615101908219095162512419962681921019618471777513133617713173199725512371062411179661679501472612719981561003134377316380188736112151781999228120415140151037914780912616102200073111746571007413315351632415::,2001.95.,,,,70,,8034%,9048%,,,,2000,17,GDP(9)199912,2272123,2264167,99167%;61381117,0128%0105%,3672180,89132%,438196,10168%919961997GDPGDP(%)13816971570109::.(),2002.16.,,,(1997)199252201991199611Dickey&Fuller,,1993,,,,,,,(Fama,1980)1.,,::,2001,11-1224200218©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.:(1):,,,(2):,,,(3),(4),,,,,,:,,,;,,,,2.,,(Pierceingcor2porationveil)(,2000),,,,:,;1986,1988111,,,,,,,,,,,1994,,,4,,,:,,,,,,,,,,,3.,,,;,,A,,;,,,:(1),,,,,,(2),,,,(3),34200218©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,(4),,,,,,4.,:(1),,,,,(2),,,,,,(JamesDow,GaryGorton,1997),,,,(3),,,,:1,,,,,,,,,25%8314%8214%,50%316%417%60%,,,,,,2,,,,3,,,,,,5.(Stiglitz,1997),(Financialrestraintpolicies),,,,,,,:,,,:;;;6.,,,,,,,,::,2001,11-1244200218©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.1997..,9:1317.1995..,:,1998.2001..,11:12-20.1997..,12-15.1998..:,181-186.2002..,60:20-28.2002..,3-5..:..,2000.1996..:,30-96.2000..,7:48-55.1999..,2:39-47Aghion,Philippe,andPatrickBolton.1992.AnIncompleteContractsApproachtoFinancialcontracting.ReviewofEconomicsStud2ies,59:473-494Fama,Eugene.1980.AgencyProblemsandtheTheoryoftheFirm.JournalofPoliticalEconomy,88:288-307Fama,Eugene.1985.WhatsDifferentaboutBancks?.JournalofMonetaryEconomics,15:29-39Harris,Milton,andArturRaviv.1991.TheTheoryofCapitalstructure.JournalofFinance,46:297-355Hart,Oliver,andJohnMoore.1995.DebtandSeniority:AnAnalysisoftheRoleofHardClaimsinConstrainingManagement.AmericanEconomicReview,85:567-585Jame,Dow,andGary,Gorton.1997.StockMarketEfficiency:IsthereaConnection?.JournalofFinance,52:1087-1129Jensen,Michael.1986.AgencyCostsofFreeCashFlow,CorporateFinance,andTakeovers.AmericaEconomicReview,76:323-329Jensen,Michael,andWilliamMeckling.1976.TheoryoftheFirm:managerialBehavior,AgencyCosts,andOwnershipStructure.JournalofFinancialEconomics,3:305-360Jensen,Michael.1993.TheModernIndustrialRevolution,Exit,andtheFailureoftheInternalControlsystems.JournalofFinance,48:831-880Morck,Randall,AndreiShleifer,andRobertVishny.1988.managementOwnershipandMarketValuation:AnEmpiricalAnalysis.JournalofFinancialEconomics,20:293-315MyersStewartC..1984.TheCapitalStructruePuzzle.JournalofFinance,39:575-592Shleifer,Andrei,andRobertVishny.1997.ASurveyofCorporateGovernance.JournalofFinance,52:737-783Williamson,Oliver.1988.CorporateFinanceandCorporateGovernance.JournalofFinance,43:567-59154200218©1995-2004TsinghuaTongfangOpticalDiscCo.,Ltd.Allrightsreserved.