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:2008205228:(2007GXQ4D156):(1977),,,:;(1962),,,,:83()2008.8(3)VOL.8,NO.320089JournalofNanjingAgriculturalUniversity(SocialSciencesEdition)Sep.,2008,(,214122):,,,,,:;;;;:F323.7:A:16717465(2008)03000807,,,,,,[1],,[2-4](),,()812(),[5],(2004320,2005500)[6],2000100[7]JuanFco.JuliIgualRicardoJ.ServerIzquierdo,,[8]RachelHineJulesPretty15,12[9],,,[10]BernardKilian,8©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.()[11],,,,,;1.,,(1),Yt=0Yt=0,,,1tYt=0=t=nt=1(YS-YC)1(1+i)=t=nt=1[(PSQS-CS)-(PCQC-CC)]1(1+i)(1),Y,P,Q,C,i,t(),s,c2.(1)(,),11DS:,SS:,DC:;SC:,PSE:,PCE:;QSE:,QCE:,PST:,DSSSDCSC,DSDC,,(SSSD),,,,,(SS),,,PSE2PSE1,(PSEPCE),(PSE)(PST1),(PST1-PCE),93,:,,,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1),,,SSSS3,DSDS3,,(PSE3)PSE1,,,(PST2)PSE3(PST2-PCE),,,(2),,(),,,,,,,,()1,,3100,2125.33%[12],,12000-200420002001200220032004()1619232527.825%18.75%21.1%8.7%11.2%:20001997-2000:Willer,H.&Yussefi:Theworldoforganicagriculture:Statisticsandemergingtrends,InternationalFed2erationofOrganicAgricultureMovements(IFOAM),2003-20061990(2);2080,;,1997,,,,1997,,,,,,,21990-2002:Alajuela,CostaRica:AnanalysisoftheLatinAmericansupplyofsustainablecoffee,CIMS(CentrodeIn2teligenciasobreMercadosSostenibles),()8,,©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:;,;()3.,,,,,,:(1),,,,,,,,(2),()8,12,4,33.3%;7,58.4%;1,8.3%(3),,,,,(4),,,,1.3-1.6JuanFco.JuliIgualRicardoJ.ServerIzquierdo232:/123456-2595.17201.16380.68666.22857.04961.62191.12221.65280.97368.24421.09449.83115.10115.10504.59664.69664.69814.0133.0636.0639.0742.0745.0848.08735.64786.36846.32912.70975.741038.4936.0648.0860.1060.1060.1060.10240.40240.40240.40240.40240.40240.401446.551648.812352.132954.423264.143612.53:1.,;2.1-5,6,:JuanFco.JuliIgual&RicardoJ.ServerIzquierdo,2006113,:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:1.,;2.1-5,6,,10:JuanFco.JuliIgua&RicardoJ.ServerIzquierdo,20064.,,,,,,,(1),,,,,Ber2nardKilian(4),,2000/,,,,,,,,,(),,4(qq/ha)352014.314.4(/ha)20011466879825(/lb)0.56(0.51-0.57)0.650.560.51(2003)(/lb)0.500.480.420.26(/lb)-0.06-0.17-0.14-0.25(qq/ha)20201414(/ha)2687215714741443(/lb)1.23(1.05-1.58)1.000.950.91(2003)(/lb)1.230.910.620.56(/lb)0-0.09-0.33-0.35(cents/lb)673539407343203068-19-10:BernardKilian,200621()8©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1),,,,,,,(2),,(),,,(3),(Qs),(Cs),,,(Ps),,(Ps),,(4),,,,,,,,,,,,,,1.,,,,,,0.08%[13],,,,,,2.,,,,,,,,,,3.,,,,,;,;,,;,313,:©1994-2009ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:[1]FAO(FoodandAgricultureOrganizationoftheUnitedNations).Whatisorganicagriculture[EB/OL].[2]Burton.AnalysisoftheDeterminantsofAdoptionofOr2ganicHorticulturalTechniquesintheUK[J].JournalofEconomics,1999,50(1):48-63.[3]Fairweather.UnderstandingHowFarmersChoosebetweenOrganicandConventionalProduction:ResultsfromNewZealandandPolicyImplications[J].AgricultureandHu2manValues,1999,16(1):51-63.[4]O’Riordan.AssessingtheConsequencesofConvertingtoOrganicAgriculture[J].JournalofAgriculturalEconom2ics,2001,52(1):22-35.[5].[J].,2002(7):38-43.[6],.[J].,2006(6):287-289.[7],.[J].,2005(1):65-70.[8]JuanFco.JuliIgual&RicardoJ.ServerIzquierdo.E2conomicandFinancialComparisonofOrganicandCon2ventionalCitrus-growingSystems[R].FAO,2006.[9]RachelHine,JulesPretty.OrganicAgricultureandFoodSecurityinEastAfrica[R].EastAfricanOrganicConfer2ence-UnleashingthePotentialofOrganicAgriculture,2007.[10]PietolaK,LansinkA.FarmerResponsetoPoliciesPro2motingOrganicFarmingTechnologiesinFinland[J].EuropeanReviewofAgriculturalEconomics,2001,28(1):1-15.[11]BernardKilian.Issustainableagricultureaviablestrate2gytoimprovefarmincomeinCentralAmerica?Acasestudyoncoffee[J].JournalofBusinessResearch,2006,59:322-330.[12]WillerH,Yussefi.Theworldoforganicagriculture:Statisticsandemergingtrends[R].InternationalFedera2tionofOrganicAgricultureMovements(IFOAM),2006.[13]LiXJ.OrganicAgricultureDevelopmentBackground,StatusandexpectationinChina[J].Farm.ProduceMarketWeekly,2006,42:26$29.()GlobalOrganicAgriculturalDevelopment’sEffectonFarmers’IncomeYINShi2jiu,WULin2hai(CollegeofFoodScienceandTechnology,JiangnanUniversity,Wuxi214122,JiangsuProvince,China)Abstract:Basedonabriefanalysisofproductionandtradesituationsoforganicagriculturearoundtheworldin2cludingChina,thisthesispredictedthepricetrendoforganicagriculturalproductsintheworldmarketbybuild2ingamodelofsupplyanddemanddetermination,exploredfactorslikeproductioncostandproductiontechnologywhichmayaffectthefarmers’incomes,presentedthelikelyeffectbroughtbythedevelopmentoforganicagricul2tureonfarmer’sincomesbyusingtheproducers’incomemodel,andputforwardpoliciesandsuggestionsonde2velopingChina’sorganicagricul