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GlobalPowersofRetailing2016NavigatingthenewdigitaldivideGlobalPowersofRetailing20163ContentsIntroduction4Globaleconomicoutlook5Navigatingthenewdigitaldivide10Top250GlobalPowersofRetailing12Top250highlights20Top10highlights23Geographicanalysis24Productsectoranalysis28Fastest5031Top50e-retailers34Qratioanalysis40Studymethodologyanddatasources44Endnotes46Contacts47GlobalPowersofRetailing20164WelcometoDeloitteToucheTohmatsuLimited’s(“DeloitteGlobal”)19thGlobalPowersofRetailingreport.Thisreportidentifiesthe250largestretailersaroundtheworldbasedonpubliclyavailabledataforfiscal2014(encompassingcompanies’fiscalyearsendedthroughJune2015)andanalyzestheirperformancebasedongeographicregion,primaryproductsector,e-commerceactivityandotherfactors.Thereportalsoprovidesalookattheworld’s50largeste-retailers,anoutlookfortheglobaleconomyandananalysisofmarketcapitalizationintheretailindustry,aswellasanintroductiontoandexecutivesummaryoffindingsfromtheforthcomingDeloitteGlobalpublicationNavigatingthenewdigitaldivide:Aglobalsummaryoffindingsfromninecountriesondigitalinfluenceinretail.GlobalPowersofRetailing20165GlobaleconomicoutlookIntheworldofretailing,muchattentionhaslatelybeenfocusedonthecompetitivethreattostorescomingfromonlineretailing,thechallengeofcybersecurity,andthedifficultyindecipheringthetastesandpricesensitivitiesofanincreasinglyfragmentedconsumermarket.Yetthroughalloftheseandotherissues,onethingremainsconstant.Thatistheconsiderableimpactonretailersofeconomicstrengthandweakness,ofinflationanddeflation,andofcurrencyandassetpricemovements.Thissectionexaminesthecurrentandanticipatedeconomicenvironment,withthegoalofdistillingwhatitmeansfortheworld’sleadingretailersandtheirsuppliers.KeyeconomicissuesthatinfluenceretailersCurrencymovementsInthepastyear,thevalueoftheUSdollarhasrisenstronglyagainstmostmajorcurrencies.Thiswasdrivenbylowoilprices,therelativestrengthoftheUSeconomy,expectationsoftighterUSmonetarypolicy,andtheeasingofmonetarypolicyinEuropeandJapan.TheresulthasbeendisinflationarypressureintheUS,weaknessintheUSmanufacturingsector,weaknessofUScorporateprofits,strongerexportgrowthinEuropeandJapan,andseriouschallengesforemergingmarkets.Asforthelatter,thedownwardpressureonemergingmarketcurrencieshascompelledlocalcentralbankstotightenmonetarypolicy,theresultbeingslowereconomicgrowth.Moreover,therapidaccumulationofdollar-denominateddebtinemergingcountriesmeansthatdollarappreciationbooststheriskofdefault.Thiscouldpotentiallyhurtthefinancialsectorinemergingmarkets.Forretailers,thestrengthoftheUSdollarhasmeantincreasedpurchasingpowerforUSconsumersandrisingimportpricesforconsumersinotherlocations–especiallythoseinemergingmarkets.OilpricesInthepastyear,oilpriceshaveplummeted.ThisresultedfromasharpincreaseinUSshaleoilproduction,adecisionbySaudiArabiatoboostoutput,andrelativelyweakdemandinavarietyofmarketsincludingEurope,Japan,andmajoremergingmarkets.Theresulthasbeendisinflationarypressureinmostcountries,asharpriseinthevalueofthedollar,andaboosttoconsumerspendingpowerinmajormarkets.Goingforward,itseemslikelythatpriceswillstayinarelativelynarrowband.Althoughcapitalspendingbytheenergysectorhasbeendramaticallycut,asharpdropinoutputisunlikely.Moreover,evenifproductiondeclinesleadtoaspikeinprices,thiswouldrapidlyleadtoincreasedinvestmentinshaleproduction,therebycausinganincreaseinoutputfairlyquickly.Thus,theremighteffectivelybeaceilingonglobaloilprices.Fortheworld’sleadingretailers,theweaknessofoilpriceshasmostlybeengoodnews.Lowerfuelcostshavetranslatedintoincreasedpurchasingpowerforconsumersaswellasreducedinflationarypressures.Indeedthishasresultedinincreasedreal(inflation-adjusted)wagesinmostmajormarkets.Ontheotherhand,thesharpdeclineincapitalspendingbyenergycompanieshashadanegativeimpactonbusinessinvestmentintheUS,Canada,andothermajoroilproducers.Theresultoflowoilpriceshasbeenweakeconomicgrowthinadiverserangeofoil-exportingcountriesincludingCanada,Russia,Venezuela,andMalaysia,tonameafew.LowinflationInthedevelopedworld,aswellasinChina,inflationhasbeenathistoricallylowlevelsandthishaspersistedlongerthanmanyanalystshadexpected.Despiteaggressivemonetarypoliciesaimedatboostinginflation,adisinflationarypsychologyhasbeenestablished.Thus,monetaryexpansiontendstoboostassetpricesratherthanthepricesofgoodsandservices.Whyisinflationsolow?Thereareseveralexplanations.Theseincludeglobalexcesscapacity,decliningcommoditypricesduetotheChineseslowdown,andfinancialmarketweakness.Thelattermeansthatmonetaryexpansiondoesnotnecessarilyleadtoincreasedcreditmarketactivity.Oneproblemwithverylowinflationisthatthereisapersistentriskofdeflation.Thelatterhasthedangerofelevatingrealborrowingcosts,andtherebyhurtinginvestment.Expectationsoflowinflationhaverenderedgovernmentbondyieldsexceptionallylow.Whilethisisgoodforgovernmentfinances,ittendstorelievegovernmentsofthenecessityofimplementingpainfulreforms.Finally,verylowinflationappearstohavediscouragedbusinessinvestment.Theresultisamassiveaccumulationofcashbybusinessesindevelopedeconomies.GlobalPowersofRetailing2