第十三章公司融资决策和有效资本市场

McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-0ChapterOutline13.1CanFinancingDecisionsCreateValue?13.2ADescriptionofEfficientCapitalMarkets13.3TheDifferentTypesofEfficiency13.4TheEvidence13.5ImplicationsforCorporateFinance13.6SummaryandConclusionsMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-113.1CanFinancingDecisionsCreateValue?•EarlierpartsofthebookshowhowtoevaluateinvestmentprojectsaccordingtheNPVcriterion.•Thenextfivechaptersconcernfinancingdecisions.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-2WhatSortofFinancingDecisions?•Typicalfinancingdecisionsinclude:–Howmuchdebtandequitytosell–When(orif)topaydividends–Whentoselldebtandequity•JustaswecanuseNPVcriteriatoevaluateinvestmentdecisions,wecanuseNPVtoevaluatefinancingdecisions.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-3HowtoCreateValuethroughFinancing1.FoolInvestorsEmpiricalevidencesuggeststhatitishardtofoolinvestorsconsistently.2.ReduceCostsorIncreaseSubsidiesCertainformsoffinancinghavetaxadvantagesorcarryothersubsidies.3.CreateaNewSecuritySometimesafirmcanfindapreviously-unsatisfiedclienteleandissuenewsecuritiesatfavorableprices.Inthelong-run,thisvaluecreationisrelativelysmall,however.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-413.2ADescriptionofEfficientCapitalMarkets•Anefficientcapitalmarketisoneinwhichstockpricesfullyreflectavailableinformation.•TheEMHhasimplicationsforinvestorsandfirms.–Sinceinformationisreflectedinsecuritypricesquickly,knowinginformationwhenitisreleaseddoesaninvestornogood.–Firmsshouldexpecttoreceivethefairvalueforsecuritiesthattheysell.Firmscannotprofitfromfoolinginvestorsinanefficientmarket.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-5ReactionofStockPricetoNewInformationinEfficientandInefficientMarketsStockPrice-30-20-100+10+20+30Daysbefore(-)andafter(+)announcementEfficientmarketresponseto“goodnews”Overreactionto“goodnews”withreversionDelayedresponseto“goodnews”McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-6ReactionofStockPricetoNewInformationinEfficientandInefficientMarketsStockPrice-30-20-100+10+20+30Daysbefore(-)andafter(+)announcementEfficientmarketresponseto“badnews”Overreactionto“badnews”withreversionDelayedresponseto“badnews”McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-713.3TheDifferentTypesofEfficiency•WeakForm–Securitypricesreflectallinformationfoundinpastpricesandvolume.•Semi-StrongForm–Securitypricesreflectallpubliclyavailableinformation.•StrongForm–Securitypricesreflectallinformation—publicandprivate.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-8WeakFormMarketEfficiency•Securitypricesreflectallinformationfoundinpastpricesandvolume.•Iftheweakformofmarketefficiencyholds,thentechnicalanalysisisofnovalue.•Oftenweak-formefficiencyisrepresentedasPt=Pt-1+Expectedreturn+randomerrort•Sincestockpricesonlyrespondtonewinformation,whichbydefinitionarrivesrandomly,stockpricesaresaidtofollowarandomwalk.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-9WhyTechnicalAnalysisFailsStockPriceTimeInvestorbehaviortendstoeliminateanyprofitopportunityassociatedwithstockpricepatterns.Ifitwerepossibletomakebigmoneysimplybyfinding“thepattern”inthestockpricemovements,everyonewoulddoitandtheprofitswouldbecompetedaway.SellSellBuyBuyMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-10Semi-StrongFormMarketEfficiency•SecurityPricesreflectallpubliclyavailableinformation.•Publiclyavailableinformationincludes:–Historicalpriceandvolumeinformation–Publishedaccountingstatements.–Informationfoundinannualreports.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-11StrongFormMarketEfficiency•SecurityPricesreflectallinformation—publicandprivate.•Strongformefficiencyincorporatesweakandsemi-strongformefficiency.•Strongformefficiencysaysthatanythingpertinenttothestockandknowntoatleastoneinvestorisalreadyincorporatedintothesecurity’sprice.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-12RelationshipamongThreeDifferentInformationSetsAllinformationrelevanttoastockInformationsetofpubliclyavailableinformationInformationsetofpastpricesMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-13SomeCommonMisconceptions•MuchofthecriticismoftheEMHhasbeenbasedonamisunderstandingofthehypothesissaysanddoesnotsay.McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2002byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.13-14WhattheEMHDoesandDoesNOTSay•Investorscanthrowdartstoselectstocks.–Thisisalmost,butnotquite,true.–Aninvestormuststilldecidehowriskyaportfoliohewantsbasedonriskaversionandthelevelofexpectedreturn.•Pricesarerandomoruncaused.–Pricesreflectinformation.–ThepriceCHANGEisdrivenbynewinformation,whichbydefin