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中国外汇储备适度规模的实证分析作者：洪加兴，JiaxingHong作者单位：中山大学岭南学院,广州,510275刊名：南方经济英文刊名：SOUTHCHINAJOURNALOFECONOMICS年，卷(期)：2008，(8)被引用次数：2次参考文献(27条)1.所谓资本流动冲击指的是当经济体的资本流入停止甚至出现逆流的情形,已有文献一般将资本流入占GDP比例下降5%作为衡量资本流动停止(suddenstop)标准2.后人常常称这个比例为GuidoddiandGreenspanrule3.所谓重商主义指的是国家积累外汇储备的目的是为了稳定本国的汇率,从而保持本国出口在国际上的竞争力4.这是因为如果r＜r∫,则政府存在套利的机会,政府会从国际市场上借人外债将其投资于无风险资产,取得无风险收益5.JoshuaAizenmanandNancyMation(2002)假设了π=0.5的特殊情形6.因为当代表性消费者越厌恶风险时,出于对未来不确定性的担忧,代表性消费者会考虑在第一期储存更多的资产7.因为r∫＜P,所以1+r∫/1+P＜1,A=(1+r∫/1+P)1/α＞18.OlivierJeanne.RomainRanciereTheOptimalLevelofInternationalReservesforEmergingMarketCountries:FormulasandApplications9.详细模型推导见Heller(1966)OptimalInternationalReserves10.Heller(1966)假设为5%-10%;FrenkelandJovanovic(1981),FloodandMarion(2002),Edison(2003)则假设资本回报率等于某些政府债券的收益.DavidHauner(2005)设定了一个计算资本回报率框架,并在此框架下计算出100个国家的资本回报率.以上这些假定都缺乏理论支持,多数也比较主观11.Chong-EnBai.Chang-TaiHsieh.YingyiQianThereturntocapitalinChina200612.CeyhunBoraDurdu.EnriqueG.Mendoza.MarcoE.TerronesPrecautionaryDemandforForeignAssetsInSuddenStopEconomies:AnAssessmentofTheNewMerehantilism200713.Chong-EnBai.Chang-TaiHsieh.YingyiQianTheReturntoCapitalInChina200614.HeinzRobertHellerOptimalInternationalReserves196615.JacobA.FrenkelTheDemandforInternationalReservesbyDevelopedandLess-DevelopedCountries197416.JoshuaAigenman.JaewooLeeFinancialVersusMonetaryMercantilism-Long-RunViewofLargeInternationalReservesHoarding200617.JoshuaAizenman.NancyMarionTheHighDemandForInternationalReservesInTheFarEast:What'sGoingOn?200218.JoshuaAizenmanInternationalReservesManagementAndTheCurrentAccount200619.JoshuaAizenman.JaewooLeeIntemationalReserves:PrecautionaryVs.MercantilistViews,TheoryandEvidence200520.JulioH.COlivera196921.JoshuaAizemanOptimalBufferStocksandPrecautionarySavingsWithDisappointmentAversion199522.JoshuaAizenman.NancyMarionInternationalReservesHoldingsWithSovereignRiskAndCostlyTaxCollection200223.KoichiHamada.KazuoUedaRandomWalksandtheTheoryoftheOptimalInternationalReserves197724.OlivierJeanne.RomainRanciereTheOptimalLevdofInternationalReservesforEmergingMarketCountries:FormulasandApplication200625.RobertFlood.NancyMarionHoldingInternationalReservesInanEraofHighCapitalMobility200226.SebastianEdwardsTheDemandforIntemationalReservesandMonetaryEquilibrium:SomeEvidenceFromDevelopingCountries198427.XingWangQianHoardingofInternationalReserves:MrsMacldup'sWardrobeandtheJoneses2006引证文献(2条)1.阎冶外汇储备适度规模理论及评述[期刊论文]-金融经济（理论版）2009(4)2.郭建平.张惠芳中国外汇储备长期增长趋势预测[期刊论文]-西安财经学院学报2009(1)本文链接：授权使用：武汉大学(whdx)，授权号：f974e54e-3900-4e2d-9de8-9e9201104222下载时间：2011年2月22日