人民币汇率制度的选择与转换

华中科技大学硕士学位论文人民币汇率制度的选择与转换姓名：戎翰申请学位级别：硕士专业：金融学指导教师：张宗成20060508I“”19982003IIAbstractThechoiceofexchangerateregimeisadynamicprocess,whichiscalledthetheoryoftransition.Whentheoldfixedexchangerateregimecannotadapttheneedsofdevelopmentofeconomyandfinance,theproblemthatwhatisthenextchoiceandhowtoexittoamoreflexibleregimewillbeconfrontedwiththiscurrencyauthority,whichiscalled“ExitStrategy”.TheregimeofRMBexchangeratenowadaysisonthebeginningpointofthisprocess.After1998Asianfinancialcrisis,undernominalmanagedfloatingtheRMBexchangerateregimehadactuallybecomeafixedpegonUSDarrangement,whichexertedasizableandpositivefunctionforstablenessatthatperiod.Butgraduallythiskindofpegregimecannotadaptchina’shigh-speedprogressofexternaleconomyandfinance.Inaddition,since2003therisingexternalpressureontheRMBappreciationhasgivenusabigchallenge,whichisalsoanopportunityfromothersideandcanacceleratethestepsofenteringtheexitchannelandtransitingtoamoreflexiblefloatingregime.Theessenceofexchangerateofanationistheeconomicstrengthcontrastamongcountries.TheeventualdeterminantoftheRMBexchangerateappreciationcomesfromtheeconomyrealm.China’ssoundeconomyenvironmentlatelyhasprovidedafavorablebackgroundforRMBexchangerateregimetransition.AlthoughtheultimategoalofRMBexchangerateregimeshouldbefloatingregime,itcannotbeimplementedatonce.Becausemanynecessaryconditionsnowadaysarelacked,suchasthedevelopedfinancialmarket,whichcanmakeresourcescollocatedefficiently.Thereferencebasketcurrencyregimemaybeagoodshort-termmediumchoice,whichcanmakeRMBexchangeratefloatingandavoidintensivefluctuationandrisingappreciationexpectationandincreasesomeflexibilityinoperationofcentralbank.Whentheexpectationdisturbanceiscalm,currencyauthorityshouldchoosereferencebasketcurrencydecidedlyinordertoreducecarrytradeandmarketconcussion.CrawlingpegonUSDcanbethenextstepintheRMBexchangerateregimeexitchannel,whichwilladdmoremarketfactorstothedecisionofRMBexchangerate.Althoughthecrawlingpegwilleffectivelyfoundtheequilibriumexchangerateandreleaseappreciationpressure,itisstilltemporary.Inconclusion,RMBexchangerateregimeshouldgraduallyandmoderatelyexitwiththerelevantreformofeconomicandfinancialpolicy,whichcaninsurethelowestriskandcostofthistransition.Inlong-term,RMBexchangerateregimemustexitintermediateregimeandachievetheindependentlyfreefloating.Keywords:exchangerateregimechoicetheoryexchangerateregimetransitiontheoryRMBexchangerateregimeexitstrategy111.1“”“”[1]“‘’”“”[2]“”——197519993104.514.919991990200179.9%55.4%20.1%44.1%[3]219781978198519851994199419992021200572118.11“”1.2MUNDELL-FLEMINGMundell19601963[4][5]MUNDELL-FLEMINGFleming1962[6]Mundell1968MUNDELL-FLEMING3MUNDELL-FLEMING“”Trilemma“”ImpossibleTriangle“”Mundell2002“”“”“”1961“”OptimalCurrencyAreas[7]“”McKinnon1963Kenen1969Haberler1971[8]·BertholdHerrendorf1999[9]Williamson19651985crawlingpegtargetzones198919914DornbuschPark19992000[10]2090“”“”“”31979[11]Obstfeld19861996trade-off[12]“”[13]KaminskyandReinhart1999“”Calvo1998Marrion1994[14]1957199087101/3Dornbusch1997Goldstein1998TornellandVelasco[15]1998123[16]51.312“”“”“”312“”342005622.118801880-19141918-19251925-19311931-19391944-19731976-20902.172.1.111192“”“”203081929.192519311944Keynes.Keynes194471%35119441973..Keynes“”9“Triffindilemma”Mundell1961“”22090——“”2080“”FrankelSchmuklerandServen2000Krugman19791996Flood19841996Krugamn1979Obstfeid1994KrugmanMillerWillamson10SebstianEdwards199632090——20902.1.21982IMF119831996IMF(1)(2)(3)(4)219971998IMF11(1)(2)(3)(4)31999IMF(1)ExchangeArrangementswithNoSeparateLegalTender(2)CurrencyBoardArrangements(3)OtherConventionalFixedPegArrangements(4)PeggedExchangeRateswithinHorizontalBands(5)CrawlingPegs(6)ExchangeRateswithinCrawlingBands(7)ManagedFloatingwithNoPredeterminedPathfortheExchangeRate(8)IndependentlyFloating2.22.2.1Frankel1999Mussa2000•StanleyFischer20012090122.11PaulKrugman1979RobertP.Flood&PeterM.Garber1984MauriceObstfeld9013McKinnon&Pill1998Chang&Velasco1998Domac&Peria2000Eichengreen&Rose199719751992100OECDKaminsky&Reinhart1999197019957626197019801422090“”“”“”WilliamH.Branson2001AgnesBenassy-QuereandBenoitCoeure2001JohnWilliamson2000903151998Edwards2000“”KleinandMarion199416PaulR.Masson20002004LogisticLogit“”“”50%20%40%19902002164AssafRazin&YonaRubinstein2004AtishR.GhoshAnne-MarieGuldeJonathanD.OstryHolgerC.Wolf1997“”J.ErnestoLópez-CórdovaandChristopherM.Meissner2002171997discriplineTornellandVelasco2000Rogoff19992.2.219090197570%8%1996IMF199720001999201182.2IMF19991999.1.11999.9.302001.3.312003.4.301.373739412.88873.394444424.1%127655.65456.107557.262633468.475147361999“”200092001“”200332003IMFInternationalFinancialStatistic2003April2001.HolgerWolf“”1975199922.31975~19991234561.N.A00000014.9232.14N.A532034261479.563.011N.A62720649.984.1136N.A1112436.225.2201020N.A30824.536.352935N.A546.243039715510788310N.AN.A“ExchangeRateRegimeChoiceandConsequences”HolgerWolfNBER2001192197519993962823014.92391068462421Zloty1990—2000“””“”“”“”a.19901—51989“”“”“”586%19890.2%1990-11.6%GDP6%GDP80%1990120“”“”1990117.1510101310019500199170%-7.6%199243%1.5%1991