国民经济增长与收入分配指标（基尼系数）的相关性研究

上海交通大学硕士学位论文国民经济增长与收入分配指标（基尼系数）的相关性研究姓名：陈林申请学位级别：硕士专业：企业管理指导教师：黄丹2006020118CORELATIONRESEARCHONNATIONECONOMICGROWTHANDINCOMEDISTRIBUTIONINDEXGINICOEFFICIENTAstwoofthemostfundamentaldepartmentsofnationeconomyproductionanddistributionaremostimportantsubjectsineconomicsresearches.Especiallywiththeintroductionofthetheoryofendogenousgrowthin1990’sresearchonthecorrelationofincomedistributionandeconomicgrowthhasbeenthemostvibrant.SincethereformandopeningChina’seconomyhasexperiencedtheamazingdevelopmentoverlasttwodecades.Howevertheproblemoftheinequalityofincomedistributionbecameseriousaseconomydevelops.Thereforewiththeconsiderationofnationaleconomy’ssustainablegrowthweshouldhavethisprobleminourcountry’shighpriority.BasedonthesummaryoftheexistedtheoriesthethesistriedtoconductdemonstrationanalysisfortheassumptionofmarginalpropensitytoconsumeandtheinterrelationbetweenGDPgrowthandincomeallocation.Thethesiscouldbedividedintofourparts.Part1analyzedtheexistedliteratureonincomeallocationandeconomicgrowthandsetuptheoreticalframework.Basedonthedataof18provincesinChinapart2establishedthecomputationmodelforGiniCoefficientandverifiedtheapplicabilityoftheassumptionofmarginalconsumptiondecreasetrendinChina.Followingtheapplicabilityverificationpart3verifiedthepossibleinterrelationbetweenGDPgrowthandGiniCoefficientbyregressandsetsolidfoundationforfinalpolicysuggestions.Part4putforwardrelevanteconomicpolicysuggestionsonthebasisofthemodelandverification.KeyWordsNationaleconomicgrowthIncomedistributionMarginalpropensitytoconsumeInequality200622011.1.11995Lucas1998———GDP10002GDP1000181819NIC1.1.22002[37]1999[14]19986p75-7819986p43-443194950GDPGDP8.4%200019770.3319990.4219980.4030.3160.2490.3780.3000.3270.537{0.6000.4870.4080.30.3-0.40.419987%20028.720%80-2020%50.24%20%4.27%500041.2.1U1978-2005GDP9%51.4.1Fig.1-1thedemonstrationoftheoverallstudylogic61.4.21872.1.189[3]U1955[4]U105%95%U8090UU2.1.2200020002000200120032001200119991992199819992001200319991999200220012000200019992000[19]1120022003-12[1]1112113[1][1]12U2.2.11314[7]2.2.2151a01a≤≤(1)a-ICy•=•2-1y&()iCySfy••==∑2-2161()iyfyC•=∑2-32-2[1][1][1]17)01010.320.400.3—0.43-1()AAB+1851421(4422)5GINIPPPP=-+-3-11995PP26-271000010000SG-=3-2a∑=×=niiiVpS13-2biiiUUV+=-13-2c∑==ijiiyU13-2d1001×=∑=niiiiPPp3-2e1001×=∑=niiiiYYy3-2fGM100500AB%5010019iUiPiYipiyiB1003-110000BB3.2.112-151610%10%20%20%20%10%10%2071994-1995199519941994199519953-121GiniCoefficient20042003200220012000199919981997199619950.3150.3020.2890.2730.2600.2510.2460.2170.2190.2180.3000.3270.3400.3570.3710.3720.3750.3690.3660.3760.3250.3650.3150.2900.3000.2800.2550.2330.2410.2500.3350.3300.3190.3080.2810.2780.2670.2410.2440.2300.3240.3290.3290.2970.3030.2920.2790.2560.2450.2570.2680.2810.2610.2430.2290.2440.2250.2100.2220.2120.3100.3240.3060.3020.3010.3200.3030.2950.3060.2990.2890.3110.2670.3000.2790.2570.2330.2090.2160.2280.3210.3870.3280.3290.2920.3020.2900.2710.2870.3560.3000.3150.2860.2950.2670.2600.2580.3080.3320.3490.2900.2820.2680.2520.2570.2460.2310.2370.2410.3260.3280.3210.3140.3110.3150.2750.2780.3360.3230.3460.3170.3430.3060.3330.3960.3420.3610.3040.4470.4300.4090.4350.4270.4130.4040.3990.3860.3950.3300.3300.3100.3100.2900.2900.2800.2600.2500.2500.3300.3100.3000.3000.2700.2700.2600.2500.2700.2700.3520.3410.3710.3250.3170.2960.2920.2950.2570.2590.3880.4330.4110.4060.4240.3690.3560.3370.3470.433GiniCoefficient199419931992199119900.2110.1990.3780.3610.2860.3010.2300.2280.2380.2250.2250.2210.2230.2110.2460.2180.1950.2020.1820.1820.3150.2130.2230.2060.2790.2650.2210.2110.2190.2720.2410.3150.3700.3560.3540.2600.2500.2000.3000.2700.2700.2400.2400.2670.4420.4430.4520.4430.456220.3-0.4234.1.1241(1K=-4.1.219291941194819851947ž[29]25¶¶cy≥0¶¶22cy≤0¶¶cy¶¶22cy[1]4.2.1fΣyi≠Σfyiyiif[1]261952197719781986195219770.9853197819860.83191952197819784.2.21Y=C0+aX+EiEVIEWSYiYMinY-Yi2Cons=C0+aGini+Ei4-11Cons2aPartialRegressionCoefficient3Gini4C005Ei21xy272eσ23xeσ2σ4xe5e181212-1573528EVIEWS0.150.200.250.300.350.700.750.800.850.90CONSUMPTIONGINICoefficientCaR2R2F-statisticProbF-statisticDurbin-Watsonstat1.1104-1.12360.76360.743938.76290.0000441.7120.9858-0.79560.79330.770334.54580.000231.6980.71420.18050.0616-0.04260.59080.46172.07110.8844-0.19140.3110.23444.06270.07462.61711.0109-0.77560.78540.765840.25870.0000551.89520.9398-0.47590.30030.21283.43410.10091.96191.0255-0.80350.80490.780633.02500.000431.85640.9424-0.40350.09280.01031.12590.31131.07260.9143-0.23180.0908-0.00010.99880.34111.86980.9208-0.42760.27240.19963.74470.08171.58090.50860.43430.11420.02561.28990.28250.93431.1028-1.13840.71790.689725.45430.00051.81381.2219-1.31260.57700.541816.37220.00160.67970.70490.10010.0127-0.08600.12880.72700.9010R2adjustedR229R230%158R2FCoefficientCaR2R2F-statisticProbF-statisticDurbin-Watsonstat0.9847-0.77250.82600.804338.00010.000271.99631.1117-1.16170.80510.783537.19400.000181.82650.70110.22040.17830.07561.73680.22401.44580.52510.37790.0696-0.03370.67340.43302.25121.1972-1.21530.62650.592518.45160.00121.93530.8711-0.14050.52050.46058.68460.0181.97450.9525-0.5