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RMB’sRevaluationandExchangeRateRegimeReformAPerspectiveFromEquilibriumExchangeRateTheory010-6472146613901059475E-mail:zbiwep@cass.org.cn220023Nurkse(1945)1MontielandHinkle1999(Short-runEquilibriumRealExchangeRate)(Long-runEquilibriumRealExchangeRate)/1IMFIMFHinkleNsengiyumva1999abc2Montiel(1999)4123(),(),(),()SERERFBtXtXtXt=SERER1()Xt2()Xt3()Xt()Bt3X*3X3X2X*2X1X*2X*3X1*X11****23(,)XXXX=***223()XXX=1X2X3X12312332333***********(0,,,)(((),),(),)()LERERFXXXGXXXXXXXHX===IMFIIE3Williamson1994MacDonaldandStein1999HinkleandMontiel19991999Zhang200220022003a35ExchangeMisalignment45880*10/=80010018FDI83030*10/=30010060IMF1518186060*8=48030030*10/=3001560*530*101160*830*101.6164sustainableequilibrium5Williamson19946677080Under-valueCrisis71999Koruda20037Szirmai20021993-19991980-19921.5898GDP2003a9810(EichengreenandHausmann,1999)(CalvoandReinhart,2002)McKinnonandSchnabl(2003)9FDI1995-200227.7%21.8%11IIE()Bergston200310%1012GDP7080111340%6..5%5%12FDI132003c809090FDIFDIFDI200312341414(2004)ManagementFloatingPlus152004