庞大的外汇储备8-ValuationofBonds

人民币庞大的外汇储备:$8400亿;惊人的人民币存款:18万亿;势不可挡的FDI:$600亿/年;全球加工厂:2亿劳动力/全球产业转移;国富民穷.(教育的贫穷是最大的贫穷)刚性的汇率,不良的金融体制,贸易体制.一府两会.ValuationofBondsChapter6objectives•1.Distinguishbetweendifferentkindsofbonds.•2.Explainthemorepopularfeaturesofbonds.•3.Definethetermvalueasusedforseveraldifferentpurposes.•4.Describethebasicprocessforvaluingassets.•5.Estimatethevalueofabond.•6.Computeabondholder’sexpectedrateofreturn.•7.Explainthreeimportantrelationshipsthatexistinbondvaluation.TypesofbondsTerminologyandCharacteristicsofbondsDefinitionsofValueValuation:TheBasicProcessBondValuationTheBondholder’sExpectedRateofReturn(YieldtoMaturity)BondValuation:ThreeImportantRelationshipsWhymarketablebonds?MultiplefinancinginstrumentsMonopolyvsDiversificationMarketorientedvscentrallyplanningorientedbond•Abondisatypeofdebtorlong-termpromissorynote(期票),issuedbytheborrower,promisingtopayitsholderapredeterminedandfixedamountofinterestperyear.1.Debentures:公司债券2.Subordinateddebentures3.Mortgagebonds4.Eurobonds5.Zeroandverylowcouponbonds6JunkbondsCHARACTERISTICSOFBONDS1.Claimsonassetsandincome2.Parvalue3.Couponinterestrate4.Maturity5.Indenture(契约)6.Currentyield7.BondratingsClaimsonassetsandincomeInterestanddividendsleadstoInsolvency:1.Bonds2.Commonstock3.PreferredstockParvalueParvalueofabond:afacevaluethatisreturnedtothebondholderatmaturity.Denomination:$1000Quotation:101.375%CouponinterestrateCouponinterestrate:Indicatorofthepercentageoftheparvalueofthebondthatwillbepaidoutannuallyintheformofinterest.Forexample:Interestrate:8%Par:$10008%x$1000=$80.00MaturityLengthtimetoredeemthebonds.Forexample:3years10years30yearsIndenture(契约)Legalagreement:Betweenissuingcompaniesandbondtrusteewhorepresentsthebondholders.Commonprovisions:1.Prohibitionsonthesaleofaccountsreceivable2.Constraintsontheissuanceofcommonstockdividends3.Restrictionsonthepurchaseorsaleoffixedassets4.ConstraintsonadditionalborrowingCurrentyieldCurrentyield=(annualinterestpayment)/(marketpriceofthebond)=(0.08*$1,000)/$700=$80/$700=0.114=11.4%StandardandPoor’sCorporateBondRatingsAAAAAABBBBBBCCCCCCCURNETBONDSYLDVOLCLOSECHGCaterplnc6s076.84988+ChsCp8s047.91101-ChsCp6086.8889-CPWV7137.83093-Chiquta100410.53100-1ChckFul7s12cv6584-1Chryslr10.4s9910.061104-Chryslr10.95s1710.08109…EconomicInfluencingonbonds1.Interestfluctuation2.Stockpricing3.Exchangerates4.Inflation5.deflationDEFINITIONSOFVALUE1Bookvalue2Liquidationvalue3Marketvalue4intrinsicoreconomicvalue=fairvalueefficientmarketntttkC1)1(V=BONDVALUATIONParvalue(M):$1000Couponinterestrate:12%Maturity:5yearsExpectedreturn:12%(9%/10%/12%/15%)Vb?ntbV)k(1M$)k(1I$bn1tbtnbnttbkMV221b2$I)21($)2k(1tEXPECTEDRATEOFRETURN(YIELDTOMATURITY)7%8%•PRESENTVALUEPRESENTPRESENTVALUEPRESEYEARSCASHFLOWFACTORSVALUEFACTorVALUE1-10$90peryear7.024$632.166.710$603.9010$1000inyear100.508508.000.463$463.00•Presentvalue$1,140.16Presentvalue$1,066.90•at7%at8%•Parvalue(M):$1000Couponinterestrate:12%Maturity:5yearsExpectedreturn:12%(9%/10%/12%/15%)Vb?12%Vb=$120(PVIFA12%,5yr)+$l,000(PVIF12%,5yr)Vb=$120(3.605)+$l,000(0.567)=$432.60+$567.00=$999.60≌$1,000,00ntiPMTPV1)1(1PVIFAK,n=(1/k)[(1–1/(1+k)n]15%•from12perceptto15percent,Vb=$120(PVIFA15%,5yr)+,000(PVIF15%,5yr)Vb=$120(3.352)+$l,000(0.497)=$402.24+$497.00•=$899.24Howcanyoudetermine15%?INTERESTRATEandDETERMINANTS•k=k*+IRP+DRP+MP+LP•k=thenominalorobservedrate•k*=therealrisk--freerateofinterest,•IRP=inflation-riskpremium.•DRP=default-riskpremium•MP=maturity•LP=liquiditypremium9%•Vb=$120(PVIFA9%,5yr)+$l,000(PⅥF9%,5yr)•Vb=$120(3.890)+$l,000(0.650)•=$466.80+$650.00=$1,116.80RELATIONSHIPS•Wehavenowlearnedtofindthevalueofabond(Vb),•(1)themountofinterestpayment(It),•(2)thematurityvalue(M),•(3)thelengthoftimetomaturity(nyears),and•(4)theinvestor’srequiredrateofreturn,kb.•expectedrateofreturn(kb),.RequiredratesofreturnMarketvalue68009001,0001,1001,200810121416$1,117$1,000$899•requiredratecouponrate,marketvalueparvalue•15％12％,then$899.24$l,000•discountbond.•requiredratecouponrate,marketvalueparvalue•9％12％,then$1,116.18$1,000•premiumbond.12%COUPON-RATEMARKETVALUEFORA12%COUPON-RATEBONDMATURINGINREOUIREDRATE5YEARS10YEARS9%$1,116.80$1,192.16121,000.001,000.0015899.24849.28RequiredratesofreturnMarketvalue68009001,0001,1001,2008101214165-yearbond10-yearbond5个融资阶段“繁荣—低谷—高峰—衰退—恢复”的规律。5个融资发展阶段50年代:内部融资时期；60年代:租赁时期，70年代:高峰时期；80年代:倒退；90年代后期:恢复期。内部融资时代•世界航运市场:航运业庞大的营业现金流•举债:经营无方•英国船东:仅有16%•找到可以获利的项目来投资。融资租赁时代日本经济的起步:融资方式的变革。规模经济:中型和大型化银行业:开展了与航运业的合作。过低成本的“方便旗”:船厂造船，租赁给船公司，银行接受船舶抵押。船舶运量达到了9000万吨之多。日本、香港的船东发展到了极致。高峰时期造船热潮,大肆造船。贸易增长迅速，只要有了船就有了生意，1973年达到了1.2亿吨（图3）。1973年的石油危机，彻底粉碎了这一造船梦想。最大的崩溃。衰退时期航运界对船队进行了大规模的削减，到1984年，世界上将近四分之一的货轮宣布退休（如图4所示）。银行业的非理性行为，加剧了这场灾难。1983——1987四年间，船东拖欠贷款达100亿美元之多，银行彻底取消整个航运投资，OBJECTIVE1avarietyoftypesofbonds,including•·Debentures•·Subordinateddebentures•·Mortgagebonds•·Eurobonds•·Zeroandverylowcouponbonds•·JunkbondsOBJECTIVE2•characteristicsthatyoumighthearaboutbondsincludethefollowing:•·Claimsonassetsandincome•·Parvalue•·Couponinterestrate•·Maturity•·Indenture•·Currentyield•·Bondratings恢复时代十年中，重新投入两千亿美