战后美国的货币、汇率政策对美国经济的影响

南京财经大学硕士学位论文战后美国的货币、汇率政策对美国经济的影响姓名：奚雅丽申请学位级别：硕士专业：政治经济学指导教师：胡连生20061227I601906070290903IIABSTRACTTheAmericaneconomydevelopedwellwithinsixtiesyearsaftertheSecondWorldWar.ThefactorsthatcausedpostwarAmericaneconomywerecomplexes,butthefactoroftheAmericanmonetaryandexchangeratepolicyisworthmorespecialattentiontopayinthemultitudinousfactorsoftheAmericaneconomy.WiththedevelopmentoftheAmericaneconomy,theeffectontheAmericaneconomyisseemedtobemoreimportantbythecurrencyfinancepolicyregulation.Becauseofit,onthebasisoftheanalysisofpostwarAmericanmonetaryandexchangeratepolicyevolutionwiththecorrelationtheories,ThisarticlebegantoanalyzetheconcreteeffectofpostwarAmericanmonetarypolicyandexchangeratepolicytotheAmericaneconomyatdifferentstagesofAmericaneconomyprocesschoosingfromtwoanglesoftheUSdollarwiththeinterestrate.Themajorpointsareasfollows.Onthefirstangel,IelaboratetheeffectoftheUSDollarsuperioritytotheAmericaneconomy.Duringthe50-60times,USdollarstandardandsuperioritypromotedthedevelopmentoftheinvestment,tradeaswellasthefiancéwhicharethegoodfoundationfortheAmericaneconomicaldevelopment.The70-80times,carryingoutweakUSdollarpolicyhelpedtheAmericangetridofthecrisiswhileobtainingUSdollarhegemonyincome.Duringthe90times,strongpolicyimpelledtheAmericaneconomyinahighspeed.ItgotridofthefinancialdeficitforUS,madethecontributionfortheUSeconomicstructureadjustmentandalsoprovidedthesupportwiththetradedeficit.Certainly,theUSdollarpolicyalsohasnegativeeffect.TheUSdollarcrisisintheearly60’sand70’sisthenegativeeffectcausedthebyAmericanexchangeratepolicy.Onthesecondangel,Ianalyzetheeffectoftheneutralmonetarypolicytothe90’seconomicaldevelopment.Afterthe90’s,onthebasisoftheTaylorrule,theneutralitybecametheessentialfeatureoftheAmericanmonetarypolicy.Theneutralmonetarypolicyhasthefeaturesofmoderate,thecontinuityandthepublictransparency.Ithasutilizedtheanticipatedtheorywellinordertoreduceinterestratechangetotheinitialdatasensitivity.Ithassuppressedtheinflationrise,realizedtheunemploymentratedropunderthelowcurrencyrate.ItalsohasplayedthevitalroleontheexpansionoftheAmericaneconomy,sloweddowntheinternationalmarketchangetotheAmericaneconomicalimpact.Certainly,theeffectoftheneutralmonetarypolicyshouldbedialecticallyanalyzed.ItonlylengthenedtheAmericanIIIeconomicaldevelopmentcycle,alleviatedtheAmericaneconomicalcontradictory,butitisimpossibletosolvethecontradictorytrulybecauseoftheeconomicalsystem.TheAmericanmonetarypolicyandexchangeratepolicygaveustwoinspires.Firstly,theorganiccombinationoftheplannedregulationwiththemarketregulationandthemarket-orientedeconomicsystemwiththegovernment’smacro-controlsystemisoneofthebasiclawsonthedevelopmentofmodernhumancivilization.Secondly,weshouldstudytheAmericanexperiencetousetherightmonetarypolicytosmoothlydevelopoureconomy,andatthesametime,weshouldalsokeepacloseeyeonAmericanexchangeratepolicyincasetheytransfertheireconomicdifficultiestous.KEYWORDSAmericanMonetaryPolicy;AmericanEconomy;Interestrateadjustment;StrongDollarPolicy;WeakDollarPolicy10.12050602070802090600.170800.1GDPCPI604.354.782.36703.186.217.08802.777.275.55902.795.713.01901201992200420019.110.20.292-0492939495969798990001020304GDP%2.72.33.522.83.93.94.12.11.22.33.44.4%7.46.86.15.65.44.94.54.24.74.55.85.95.4%332.62.82.92.31.62.23.42.61.11.41.620055%1/4112199820002012102.1%220901900.2901,,.J.,2003(2):21-22.312,.907040.317090906070290903,50.461.11123452PaulASamuelson.1976322070.PaulASamuelson19762.J.,2006(2):35.71.21.2.1---701---3423.M.1997:142.4.M.1997:142.851.2.22070802070806119567825.M.:,1997:176.670,,.7.M.:,1974:52.8.M.:,1974:73.9451.2.3901.198719921993(TaylorRule)tytttyghri+−++=*)(πππ1.1tπr2%htπ-*π0.5ty0.51.1ttttyi5.0*)(5.02+−++=πππ1.210tπ-*π=0ty=0ritt=−π2199371.31.3.11701953-19541957-19581960-19612060702207080197911M1980M1198210M1198710M1M280801990-1991320901993722101190101.3.211946359.J.2004(10:63.10.90J.,2000(6):106-107.11200071219731222070902070.132080.198590.3209019951014101012:J.,2003(3):34.131980-1985,,1420032004,,1319444420008934015154.1GDPGDP2.1GDP199714.026.121.019976.814.228.8(%)19971.262.682.9019975.048.0-(%)19974.951.719.4IMF.WorldEconomicOutlook.Oct.19972.115TheInternationalInvestmentPositionoftheUnitedStatesatYearend2001,SurveyofCurrentBusiness,July2002.142.1.120602.1.250-6015162.1.312317Frankel60%12018GDP2%902.8%1916..,2004.17.M.:,2002:64.18,.J.,2005(7):32-37.19.J.,2003(3):33-37.162.2197119737070%6025%2.2.1602.2.21770702.2.3198530%80-12501200111202021198720.J.2005(6):52-53.21.,J.2005(12):324.18198710%198818%19871680199092080801986-1989902.3209019951995G7G72.3.19019199229001998221976199517912319982616228024CPIPPI2.3.28090(SecuritiesDataCorp)2090106.5208010442516303500030022.J.,2003(6):11.23.:J.,2006(3):52.24.21M.,2003:205.25.J.,2005(8):99.20102.3.3.2690GDP2%-3%2.3.420901991-200079750660OECD26N.,2001,9(21).212363068234.43%11.19%8.04%2770%WashingtonPost200328102.4501960101968327TableA.4OECDdirectinvestmentfromabroad:inwardposition,OECDdirectorateforfinancialandenterpriseaffairs,TrendsandRecentDevelopmentsinForeignDirectInvestment,J