中国和东盟贸易与直接投资的关系及政策研究

华中科技大学博士学位论文中国和东盟贸易与直接投资的关系及政策研究姓名：余竑申请学位级别：博士专业：西方经济学指导教师：刘海云20060508IIIIIIAbstractWiththedeepeningoftheeconomygloballiberationandinternationaldivisionandthedevelopmentoftheMNC,internationaltradeandFDIhavebeeningreatchanges.Andtheirrelationshiphasalsochanged:mutualsubstitution,mutualtomutualintegration.Astheabovechange,manyscholarsbegintoresearchtherelationship,andtrytobuildananalysisframewhichcangettogetherinternationalandFDI,tocontactthemorganiclyandmakethembeincoordination.Currently,manyscholarshaveresearchedtherelationshipbetweeninternationaltradeandFDIinChinawithanempiricalmethod,butmostofthemonlyhaveusedthegrossofinternationaltradeandFDIinchinatostudytherelationship,andtheirconclusionindicatedthatFDIpromotedthedevelopmentofinternationaltradeofChina.ButthispaperjustreviewstheirrelationshipwithpointofviewofthemutualtradeandinvestmentbetweenChinaandASEAN.ItaimstoresearchtheinteractionoftheirtradefrommutualdirectinvestmentbetweenChinaandASEANthesetwodevelopingcountries.AndthispaperalsoresearchtherelationshipbetweenthechoiceoftradeandFDIpolicyandhowitforcetheforeignfirmtochooseanincfficientmodeofsupply,withasituationwheredomesticgovernmentisrestrictedbynumerousagreementsofFDI.Inthispaper,itfirstlyreviewsthetheoriesofinternationaltradeandFDI,andsimplyanalysestheresearchoftheinteractionbetweeninternationaltradeandFDIwhichgivenbythescholarsrecently.Throughtheabove,itshowsthesubstitutionandcomplementbetweenFDIandinternationaltrade.FurthermoreHelmberger,Schmitz(1970)pointsthatitisactuallyanempiricalstudybutnotatheoricalproblemaboutwhetheritissubstitutionorcomplementbetweeninternationaltradeandFDI.Secondly,itanalysesthesituationofthetradeanddirectinvestmentbetweenChinaandASEAN,andgivestheexperientialanalysisabouttheirinteraction.ItpointsthatthetradebetweenChinaandASEANismainlytraditionalindustries’trade.ButthedirectinvestmentfromASEANtoChinaweaklyinfluencesthetradebetweenthem,asitconcentratesintheindustrieswhichbasedonhighdegreeoflabor.ThenitadoptstheempiricalanalysisbyusingthedatesofthedirectinvestmentfromASEANtoChinaandIVthetradeofimportandexportfromChinatoASEAN.Furthermore,thispaperanalysesthetradestructureandintra-industrytradesituationbetweenChinaandASEAN,whichindicatesthattheygraduallygotointra-industrytradefromtraditionalindustrytrade.Anditextendstoformthecomplementaldivision.Butnowtheintra-industrytradebetweenthemisstillmainlyplumbintra-industrytrade,whichisdifferentfromlevelintra-industrytradebetweenthedevelopedcountries.Itshowsthattheyarestillinalowerlevel.AndthenthispapertotallyshowstheinternationaltradeandFDIpolicy,anditsimplyanalysesthatacountry’stradeandFDIpolicyhowtoinfluenceitsFDIandtrade.Anditbuildsamodelwhichadomesticgovernmenthowtosetpolicyandforeignfirmshowtoselectthemodelofsupply.Anditrepresentsthestatusquo:domesticgovernmentfacesconstraintsontheuseoftradepolicy(duetocommitmentsoninternationaltradeagreements),butnotoninvestmentpolicy.OuranalysissuggeststhattheprimarybenefitofconstrainingFDIpolicygiventhattradeisfreeisprimarilydistributional:suchaconstraintwouldlimittheabilityofgovernmentstoextractrentsfromforeigninvestors.AtlastthispapertotallyanalysesandcomparesthesituationoftradeandinvestmentpolicybetweenChinaandASEAN,anditgivesthesuggestionsoftradeandinvestmentpolicybetweenChinaandASEAN,andofourtradeandinvestmentpolicy.Keywords:InternationaltradeFDISubstitutionComplementPolicycoordination111.11938“”1992:“”2070UNCTAD1970200313055964311970-20035780490008.51997537101950871,,(),1UNCTAD200422,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3·,,,,:,,213“”(integration)2:——2“integration”“”2050“”‘`integration“”F150“Economicintegration”“”(200228)4WTO1.21.2.1FDI(complementarityhypothesis)Lipsey5Weiss(1981)Markusen(1983)FDIFDIFDI“”O’Sullivan,1993FDI(tradeinfactorservice)Obstfeld,1995FDIUNCTAD,1993,(Fukasaku,1996;Bhagwati,1978;Balasubramanyam,1996)2FDI(temporalcausalityexamine)FDIFDIFDI2FDIFDI61.2.2:12,31.37123456772:2.12.1.1·AdamSmith·DavidRicardoEli.F.Heckscher—BertilGotthemdOhlin18“”.·1817——9Mill2.“”“”10“”“”1911194919512001962“”3“L×3”L“”“”122.1.2C.P.KindlebergerRichardE.CavesR.Z.Aliber“FDI”FDIFDI13122.2FDI――Mundell1957:1AB2xyxyA14yBx3AB-H-O-SAB4.1xyTaTaTbTbABAxyPaAQaPayCaQaxBPbPbQbxQbCby2.1ACaQaPaBPbQbCbABMM′ByAyBByByBBABByATaTaTa′Ta′BTbTbTb′Tb′xyMM′NN′APaPa′BPbPb′2.1ABRaRbT.M.RybczynskiLineAQaPayPa′QaxBSbPb′yPbSbxAPa′QaPaBPbSbPb′ABxyAxPa′QaBxPbSbAyQaPaBySbPb152.1.—.2001515K.Koyimo123ABABAB164xyAxyBAByABxABxTTBtttt′APP′AyxAQQ′yxACP′AxyBxAEQ′yCExBq′BcP′BxyABAq′execyBqq′d2.2ACEQ′Bq′ecABxy172.2.—.20015162.3208090Markuson1983Svensson1984Bhagwati1987Dinopoulos19918018Markuson1983MarkusonMarkusonSvensson1985“”“”MarkusonSvensson198519tariff-defusinginvestmentBhagwati1987Dinopoulos1989Bhagwati1992:“”“”WTO19972045%23%“”EatonTamura19961985199021100:FontagnePajot19971219841994:PainWakelin199811OECD19711992473:Pfaffermayr1994Bajo-Rubio1999Wissem2002197020012.420012219992002200320802004FDI20041984-19971997-2003200519822002232005FDIFDI20052.5199920021FDIFDIFDI24FDI2002200220022002200320022003FDIFDI2FDIFDIFDIFDIFDI1998FDIFDIFDIFDIFDIFDIFDI25FDIW