中国的投资与储蓄(1)

1WORLDBANKCHINAOFFICERESEARCHWORKINGPAPERNO.1INVESTMENTANDSAVINGINCHINAbyLouisKuijs1/AbstractAnanalysisofsectoralpatternsofinvestmentandsavinginChina—overtimeandcomparedtoothercountries—shedslightonthefactorsdrivinghighinvestmentandonhowsavingischanneledintoinvestment.Keyfindingsinclude:(i)investmentbyenterprisesdistinguishesChinafromothercountriesandexplainsmostofthevariationovertime;(ii)highhouseholdsavingexplainsonlyapartofthelargedifferenceinnationalsavingbetweenChinaandothercountries—themajorityisexplainedbyhighsavingofthegovernmentandenterprises(throughretainedearnings);and(iii)currentlyonlyaboutone-thirdofenterpriseinvestmentisfinancedviathefinancialsector,alowersharethanintheearly1990s.Explanationsbehindthehighsavingofthegovernmentandenterprisesaretracedback.Thereareseveralpolicyimplications.Theidentifiedfinancingpatternsputinperspectivetheexposureofthefinancialsectortoinvestment-relatedrisksbut,againstthebackgroundofconcernsaboutsuboptimalallocationofcapital,bringtotheforecorporategovernanceanddividendpolicy.Thefindingssuggestpolicyadjustmentsthatwouldhelpachievingthegovernment’sgoalsofimprovingthequalityofgrowthandincreasingtheroleofconsumption.Finally,longtermsavingprospects,anditsimplications,arediscussed.Keywords:Investment;saving;financing;demographics,corporategovernance,China.WorldBankChinaResearchPaper,No.1,May20051/WorldBankOffice,Beijing,China(EASPR).Email:[e-mail]:IthankBertHofmanforencouragementandcomments,andHomiKharasandTaoWangforcommentsonanearlierdraft.TheWorldBankChinaResearchPaperseriesdisseminatesthefindingsofresearchonChinatoencouragediscussionandsolicitfeedback.Thepaperscarrythenamesoftheauthorsandshouldbecitedaccordingly.Thefindings,interpretations,andconclusionsexpressedinthesepapersarethoseoftheauthors.TheydonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewoftheWorldBank,itsExecutiveDirectors,orthecountriestheyrepresent.2IntroductionWithChina’sinvestmentandsavinghigh—inhistoricalcontextandcomparedtoothercountries—questionsoninvestmentandsavingcontinuetoarouseinterestofpolicymakersandresearchers.However,knowledgeabouttheunderlyingpatternsofinvestmentandsavingislimited.Thispaperattemptstoanswerthefollowingquestions.WhatarethefactorsdrivingChina’shighinvestment?Howissavingchanneledintoinvestment?Inparticular,howisenterpriseinvestmentfinanced,andwhatistheroleofthedomesticbankingsector,enterprisesaving,andthegovernment?Answerstothesequestionsareimportantforseveralreasons.First,theyinformthecurrentdebateonthetypesofrisksandpolicychallengesstemmingfromChina’shighinvestment,includingonwhatpoliciesareneededtomitigaterisksandimprovetheefficiencyofcapitalallocation.Second,theyfacilitatetheunderstandingofChina’spatternofgrowth.HighinvestmentandsavingarekeyfeaturesofChina’spatternofgrowth.Abetterunderstandingoftheirdeterminantscouldimprovetheunderstandingofthepatternofgrowth;itssustainability;andmediumandlong-termprospects.Third,theyhelpidentifyingthepolicyimplicationsoftheprojectedsavingandinvestmentdevelopments,alsoinlightofidentifiedtensionsandtheintendedchangeinthepolicystance,includingtheplannedshiftingovernmentspendingfrominvestmenttosocialspendingandincreasedroleofprivateconsumption.Toanswerthesequestions,thepaperanalysessectoraltrendsininvestmentandsavingandtheresultingsectoralsaving-investmentbalancesovertimeandrelatesthemtocyclicalandstructuraldevelopments,tobetterinterpretcurrentdevelopments.ItalsocomparesthesetrendstothoseinothercountriestoidentifyChina’sspecialfeatures.Thepaperuses—apparentlyforthefirsttime—timeseriesdatafromtheFlowofFunds(FoF)fromthenationalaccounts.1Theadvantageofthesedataisthattheyreflectfinancialflowsbetweensectors.Moreover,the“abovetheline”flowdataismappedwith“belowtheline”dataonfinancing.Theconclusionsbasedonthisdataareverifiedbylookingatdatafromothersources,includingfromthefinancialsector,onthefinancingofinvestmentfromtheStatisticalYearbook(SYB),andthehouseholdsurvey.2ThispaperdoesnotlookintopotentialproblemswithdataoninvestmentandGDP,reflectingabeliefthat,inadditiontoanydataproblems—mostofwhicharepertinentinothercountriestoo—,thereareeconomicexplanationsbehindthedevelopmentsoninvestmentandsavinginChina.31TheFoFaccountsshowforhouseholds,enterprises,thegovernment,andthe“restoftheworld”thesourcesandusesoffinancialresources.The“abovetheline”flowsshowthecompositionofincome,consumptionandsaving,physicalinvestment,andtheresultingnetexternalfinancing.The“belowtheline”flowsshowhoweachsector’snetexternalfinancialbalanceisinvestedand/orfinanced.2TheFoFdataisonlyavailableupuntil2001,and,forsomeparts,2002.Someestimatesaremadefor2002and2003,butthesearemeanttobeonlyindicative.Forinstance,householdsavingisestimatedusingtheyear-on-yearchangeinhouseholdsavingfromthehouseholdsurvey.3DataonFixedAssetInvestmentinChina(FAI)includeslandsales.NationalaccountsdataonGrossCapitalFormation(GCF),whichdoesnotincludesuchsales,isbettercomparableinternationally.3Wefindthatsincetheearly1990sinvestmentbyhouseholdsanddirectinvestmentbythegovernmenthavebeenrelativelysteadyatle