关于个税起征点设置及其地区差异性的研究

1关于个税起征点设置及其地区差异性的研究吉林财经大学宋晓琳、梁淳涵、刘捷摘要个人所得税是以个人（自然人）取得的各项应税所得为对象的一种税，统一适用于中国公民和在我国取得收入的外籍人员。我国从1980年开始征收个人所得税，期间我国的经济结构发生了重大变革，个人所得税的发展也与我国不同时期的国情基本吻合。尤其是1994年我国新税制实施以来，个人所得税稳定增长，目前已成为我国第四大税种[1]。个人所得税在我国组织财政收入、调节个人分配以及调节贫富差距等方面有着很关键的作用。如何建立完善的个税征收机制、进行合理的个税改革已成为我国经济和社会发展的一个重要的问题。本文主要的目的是根据动态机制研究设立全国个税起征点，其次分析不同地区之间的差异是否适用于统一的个税起征点。实证分析部分首先运用逐步回归方法提取出影响个税收入的显著因素，分别是工资总额和人均消费；再运用协整理论根据全国工资总额增长率人均消费增长率（数据来源于《中国统计年鉴2010》）拟合个税起征点增长率模型，以1994年（新税制开始实施）为基期，算出不同年份个税起征点增长率求解平均增长率，从而建立个税起征点滑动增长模型。随后运用ARIMA模型和线性回归分别预测人均消费和工资总额，从而预测出未来几年个税起征点的变化情况。接着通过聚类分析研究地区间的差异，以此分析个税起征点的设立是否考虑地区发展不平衡的因素。最后对模型进行评价并根据得出的结论提出相应的建议。关键词：个税起征点；逐步回归；协整检验；ARIMA预测模型；聚类分析2AbstractionPersonalincometaxisbasedonpersonal(naturalperson)wonthetaxableincomeastheobjectofakindoftax,forChinesecitizensandunityinourcountrytheincomeofforeignworkers.Since1980,ourcountrytoimposeindividualincometax,inChinaduringtheeconomicstructureofthefundamentalchangeshavehappenedtothepersonalincometax,thedevelopmentofourcountryandindifferentperiodsofconsistentwithnationalconditions.Especiallyin1994,sincetheimplementationofthenewtaxsystem,personalincometax,thestablegrowthhasbecomeChina'sfourthlargesttaxes[1].Personalincometaxinourorganizationfiscalrevenue,regulatespersonalallocation,andregulatethegapbetweenrichandpoorhasakeyrole.Howtoestablishandimprovethetaxcollectionmechanism,reasonabletaxreformhasbecomeChina'seconomicandsocialdevelopmentofanimportantissue.Themainpurposeofthispaperistostudythedynamicmechanismofthenationalthreshold,thenanalysisthedifferencebetweendifferentregionsissuitableforunifiedthreshold.Theempiricalanalysisofthefirstuseofstepwiseregressionmethodextractssignificantfactorsaffecttaxincome,respectivelyistotalwagesandpercapitaconsumption;Thenusecointegrationtheoryaccordingtothenationaltotalwagesgrowthratepercapitaconsumptiongrowthrate(datacomesfromtheChinastatisticalyearbook2010)fittingthresholdgrowthratemodel,in1994beganimplementingthenewtaxsystemforworkoutdifferentyearsthresholdgrowthsolvingaveragegrowthrate,andtoestablishthethresholdslidinggrowthmodel.ThenuseARIMAmodelandlinearregressionseparatelypredictthepercapitaconsumptionandtotalwages,andpredictthenextfewyearsthechangeofthreshold.Theempiricalanalysisthesecondpartthroughclusteranalysistostudythedifferencesbetweenthearea,toanalysisthethresholdsetupconsiderwhethertheimbalanceddevelopmentoffactors.FinallythemodelaccordingtotheconclusionoftheevaluationandputsforwardrelevantSuggestions.Keywords:Threshold;Stepwiseregression;Cointegrationtest;ARIMApredictionmodel;Clusteringanalysis3目录导论............................................................................................................................................4（一）选题意义..............................................................................................4（二）基本思路..............................................................................................4（三）文献综述..............................................................................................5一、研究方法及模型概述............................................................................................................5（一）逐步回归法..........................................................................................5（二）变量关系研究......................................................................................6（三）ARIMA预测模型...............................................................................8（四）自相关修正思想..................................................................................9二、个税起征点的实证研究........................................................................................................9第一节关于全国个税起征点的分析.................................................................9（一）数据的获得和处理..............................................................................9（二）影响个税因素的逐步回归................................................................10（三）工资总额增长率和人均消费增长率的研究....................................11（四）建立个税起征点模型......................................................................14第二节关于个税起征点模型的预测...............................................................16（一）数据的获得和处理............................................................................16（二）对工资总额的预测............................................................................16（三）对人均消费的预测............................................................................19（四）对个税起征点的预测........................................................................22第三节关于个税起征点是否应该考虑地区差异的分析.............................22三、结论及建议..........................................................................................................................24（一）结果分析............................................................................................24（二）模型评价............................................................................................27（三）建议....................................................................................................27参考文献..............................................................................