学校代码:10252学号:0721135上海理工大学硕士学位论文出口退税的经济效应分析——基于出口退税对外贸影响的研究姓名夏洋系别管理学院专业国民经济学研究方向投资经济指导教师陶田教授学位论文完成日期2009年12月摘要随着全球经济一体化进程的加剧,全球经济形势瞬息万变,我国作为出口导向型经济增长的国家,国际市场的波动都会影响到我国对外贸易的良性发展。尤其是随着2008年由美国次贷危机演变成的全球性的金融危机的爆发,全球经济形势陷入低迷,国际需求急剧萎缩,我国出口贸易首当其冲,出口压力增大,这给我国政府如何稳定宏观经济形势,保持出口贸易的增长势头添加了新的难题。出口退税政策作为国家宏观调控的一种财政手段在减缓出口贸易恶化,降低出口压力方面起到了重要作用。本文在总结国内外相关研究的基础上,对我国出口退税制度产生的经济效应进行了系统研究。本文首先回顾了20年来我国出口退税制度的发展历程,通过对1985年至2008年间的相关数据进行经验观察,初步考察了出口退税政策对出口贸易的促进作用;进一步从微观层面、宏观层面、福利效应等方面分析了出口退税产生的经济效应以及其对我国产业结构、区域经济发展的影响;最后通过时序实证分析研究了出口退税与出口贸易、国民经济体系以及产业结构升级之间的相关关系。实证结果显示:1.无论在当期还是滞后期,出口退税对出口贸易的发展都有很强的推动作用;2.出口退税政策同时也对我国国内生产总值的增长产生影响,有利于保持我国宏观经济健康、稳定的发展;3.通过对不同行业采用不同的出口退税税率,有了利于促进我国产业结构的优化升级,能有效的促进高技术产业、重大技术装备、IT产品、生物医药产品等的出口增长。本文在肯定出口退税政策的积极作用的同时,讨论了现行体制下我国出口退税政策存在的问题,也进一步探讨了关于新的经济形势下我国出口退税政策的功能定位问题。2008年以来爆发的全球性的金融危机,给我国出口退税的运用添加了新的挑战,事实证明,出口退税在缓解出口不利局面上起到了切实的缓和作用,但是就本质而言,出口退税的功能定位应该是辅助作用,最终目的是在没有出口退税的影响下,出口形势依然能够保持稳健势头。我们应该在进一步改进和完善出口退税税制的基础上,结合我国经济运行的实际情况,合理运用出口退税政策,保障我国经济平稳、健康、高效的运行。关键词:出口退税经济效应乘数效应出口贸易经济增长ABSTRACTWiththeintensifyoftheglobaleconomicintegration,theglobaleconomicsituationchangesrapidly,Chinaasanexport-orientedeconomicgrowthcountry,thefluctuationoftheinternationalmarketinfluencesitsnationalandeinternationalmarketenormously.Particularly,astheburseoftheU.S.sub-primemortgagecrisesturnedintoaglobalfinancialcrisisintheyear2008,therapidoftheglobaldevelopmentspeedhasbeendownturn,thedemandoftheinternationalmarkethasbeendeclinedsharply,whichpushedbigpressureontheSinoexportsituation.AllthesituationsabovechallengetheChinesegovernmentonhowtostabilizemacroeconomicsituation,maintainingthegrowthmomentumofexports.Thepolicyoftaxrebate,asastrongstate’smacroregulationandfinancialcontrolmeans,hasbeenusedbygovernment.Andasitis,theimplicationoftaxrebatepolicyhasindeedaffectedthesituation;ithasreleasedthebigpressureoftheexportindustriesandsloweddownthedeclineofthequantityoftheexportdepartment.Thepolicyoftaxrebatewasintroducedin1985,andtheintroducedatax-sharingsystemreformintheyear1994.Duringthetwodecades,taxrebatepolicyhashelpedthestatealotonstabilizingmacroeconomicconditionsandspurringthedevelopmentofexport.Ontheotherhand,taxrebatepolicyalsohasalsoencouragedenterprisestoupgradetheirproductiontechnology,useadvancedproducingprocesses,andimprovetheproducttechnologycontentinordertoachievethegoalofpromotionofChina’sindustrialstructureoptimizationandupgradingoftheextensiveeconomicgrowthmode.Thispaperstudiestheeffectsoftaxrebateonthestate’seconomicdevelopmentandtheexportdepartmentonthebasisofdomesticandforeignresearchonthetaxrebatesystem.Firstofall,thispaperreviewedthedevelopmentprocessofChina’staxrebatesystemthroughthedataof1985to2008;secondly,weinspectedthecorrelationbetweentaxrebateandthestateeconomicdevelopment;andfinally,weexaminedourresultbytheempiricaltimeseriesanalysis.Theempiricalresultsshowthat:1.thetaxrebatepolicyhasastronginfluenceontheGDPwhetherorlagthecurrentperiod;2.thetaxrebatepolicynotonlycanpromotethedevelopmentofexport,butalsohelpsstatestostabilizethedomesticmacroeconomiccondition;3.theimplicationoftaxrebatepolicyhaseffectsonChina’sindustrialstructureoptimizationandupgrading.Inthispaper,wediscussedtheproblemofthetaxrebatesystembesidesaffirmingthepositiveroleofit.Furthermore,wecontinuediscussedthefunctionalpositionoftaxrebatepolicyunderthecircumstanceoftheneweconomicsituation.Theblowsofthefinancialcrisesin2008hasbringgreatpressuretoChinaonhowtosteadyitseconomicgrowthandthedevelopmentofexportdepartment,wehasevidencetobelieve,thattheproperuseoftaxrebatepolicy,combinedwithothermacro-controlpolicies,ournation’seconomicsituationwillturntobebetter,anditseconomywillcontinuetogrowthstable,healthyandefficiency.KeyWords:TaxRebatePolicy,EconomicEffects,MultiplierEffects,ExportTrade,EconomicGrowth目录中文摘要ABSTRACT第一章绪论.........................................................................................................1§1.1选题背景及意义..........................................................................1§1.2国内外文献综述............................................................................3§1.2.1国外文献综述...............................................................................3§1.2.2国内文献综述..............................................................................5§1.3研究内容及研究方法...................................................................9§1.4本文的创新点和不足....................................................................11第二章我国出口退税政策的相关理论..............................................................13§2.1我国出口退税政策的理论基础.....................................................13§2.1.1重商主义理论.............................................................................13§2.1.2新古典贸易理论.........................................................................14§2.1.3新贸易理论.................................................................................14§2.2我国出口退税政策的特点和基本原则..........................................15§2.2.1我国出口退税政策的特点.........................................................15§2.2.2出口退税政策的基本原则...................................