周黎安——农村税改效果

:3(100871):759119992002,,,40%,:3,2090,,,,,2000,,20002003,,,,,,,,(,2004;,2004),,,,,(,2004),,,,,,(,2001;,2003;,2003;,2004),,,,()44::©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(naturalexperiment)(difference2in2differencesmodel),,,,,1986,(GruberandPoterba,1994;Eissa,1995;Feldstein,1995),,:113115,45%,,,,,,,,,,(1997)512%,10%(,2003),902000,,,2000,200032,,,2001,2002327,2002,(),2003327,,20002003,:5420058(2004)6©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(591)19992002,,19992000,;,,,,,,2001,;,2002,5,,,,4,54(4),,1998200230300,,,1,0;,1,0;4i,i1,0,,3,,,20022000,2002,,2002,4,38GDP1998GDP,164::,(2004)©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(%)23643.126.78-51.751.8()23640.310.4601()59134.220.10221.8GDP(%)23646.188.57-48.5104.91998GDP()236456963779150527525()23640.150.3601()23640.280.4501()23640.320.4701,,,(treatment)(naturalexperiment)(quasi2experiment),(treatmentgroup)(controlgroup)y,x=10,E(y|x=1)-E(y|x=0)yx,it,yit=0+1xit+zit+ut+i+it(1)xitti,utt,zity,iiz,,E(|x,z)=0(=+),1:yit=0+1xit+zit+ut+it(2)1^1(differencesestimator),1,E(|x)=0,E(|x,z)=0,,OLS1,(2)z1,,^1E(|x,z)=0,E(|x,z)=0,(fixedeffectpaneldatamodel)(1)11(difference2in2differencesestimator)(cross2sectional)(time2series)(treatmenteffect),,7420058©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(),,,,,,,,,,,,()2(1)1OLS11752(2)25%,11313112%,40%,2(1)(2)2,2(1)(2),2,:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)1.751333(6.28)1.306333(3.01)1.567333(3.16)0.359(1.00)1.512333(3.65)2.115333(4.25)1.851333(3.14)2.171333(2.78)4.159333(4.40)5.113(4.57)3333.749333(4.12)236423642364236422802280R20.140.170.170.180.170.17:t,10%5%1%333333(,)(2)(6)GDP1998GDP84::©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(3)(4)(3),,,,(4),,,,,4,,,,12,3(1)(2),2(1)(4)(1),11453::(1)(2)(3)(4)1.44833(2.43)1.54933(2.43)1.600333(2.75)2.100333(3.11)2.00033(2.30)2.13533(2.10)4.275333(3.17)5.014333(3.30)4.848(1.21)2364236422802280591591570570R20.140.140.130.14:(2)(4)GDP(),,21,,,,,,,,2(5)(6)3(3)(4)21484,1999,4,,9420058©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(1,0),1999443,,,,23,,20025,,1,0102301025,20022713118,0165(=0102432713118P100)54:1999(1)(2)(3)0.548(0.69)-0.227(0.39)-0.533(0.84)GDP27.147333(3.69)26.328333(3.61)587587587R20.000.230.25:(1)(2);(3)GDP1998GDP5:(1)(2)0.0233(1.68)0.02533(2.01)GDP0.29333(4.88)0.302333(4.78)591591R20.100.12:(1);(2)1998GDP23,,,,,,,,GDP,,,,GDP,3011%,6414%,05::©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2)3(3),GDP,,66GDP:GDPOLS(1)(2)0.721(1.10)0.712(1.00)23642364591R20.150.10:(1)1998GDP(2)(),,:,,,,,,:(1)1999,,,68%,,1999(),(2)19991999,,,(,2004)(3),(),,1,0,,,71520058©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.(2)8,7,:,23,,:,(2003)19861999,,7,,,,7,19992002,115,GDP,,,,,,,,,,2003:,,2004:,,2003:,4,2003::,9,2001:,11,2004::,25::©1994-2008ChinaAcademicJournalElectronicPublishingHouse.Allrightsreserved.:,:,,2003:,,http:PP=276Eissa,N.,1995,TaxationandLaborSupplyofMarriedWomen:TheTaxReformActof1986asaNaturalExperiment,NBERWorkingPaperSeries,No.5023.Feldstein,M.,1995,TheEffectofMarginalTaxRatesonTaxableIncome:APanelStudyofthe1986TaxReformAct,JournalofPoliticalEconomy103:551572.Gruber,J.,andJ.Poterba,1994,TaxIncentivesandDecisiontoPurchaseHealthInsurance:EvidencefromtheSelf2Employed,QuarterlyJournalofEconomics109:701733.ThePolicyEffectofTax2and2FeesReformsinRuralChina:ADifference2in2DifferencesEstimationZhouLi2AnandChenYe(GuanghuaSchoolofManagement,PekingUniversity)Abstract:UsingalargedatasetcontainingChinaps591countiesandcounty2levelcitiesfrom199922002,thisstudyconductsasystematicandrigorousempiricalanalysisofthecausaleffectsofChinapsruraltax2and2feesreformsontheincomegrowthofthefarmers.Weemployadifference2in2differences(DID)estimationmethod,takingadvantageofthefactthatthereformswerespreadgraduallyfromsomeregionstootherones.Wefindthattheeffectofthereformsonthegrowthrateoffarmerspincomeisstatisticallyandeconomicallysignificant,whichcontributestomorethan40percentofthefarmerspannualincomegrowthinthesampleperiodandthatsuchpositiveeffecthaslastedmorethanoneyear.Thesebasicresultsarerobusttoanumberofspecificationtests.Someimportantfactorsaffectingthereformeffectsarealsoexamined.KeyWords:ChinapsRuralTax2and2feesReforms;FarmerspTaxBurden;DIDEstimationJELClassification:C210,H210,O180,P350(:)(:)(31)TheReformofRMBExchangeRateSystem:ReturntoManagedFloatingLiYangandYuWeibin(InstituteofFinance&Banking,CASS)Abstract:IntheprocessofthereformofRMBexchangeregime,settingprioritybetweenthemechanismreformandthechangeoftheparityofRMBisofmostimportant.Thispapersuggestthattherefor