城镇居民的间接税负担_基于投入产出表的估算

城镇居民的间接税负担:基于投入产出表的估算*聂海峰刘怡:考察居民的间接税负担对于认识我国的税负转嫁以及税收对收入分配的调节作用具有非常重要的意义本文以中国住户调查数据为基础,利用投入产出表技术模拟间接税在不同部门的流转情况,估算了增值税消费税营业税和资源税等间接税在城镇居民不同收入群体的负担情况本文的研究表明,从年度收入来看,各项税收都是显著累退的但是从终身收入来看,所有税收呈累退性减弱,营业税负担呈现累进的特征,资源税负担接近比例税率;整体来看,间接税接近比例负担:税收归宿税收公平投入产出模型*,,:510275,:[e-mail];,,:[e-mail](7087304)!2009,,,,,,,,,,2002,,17%,13%()3%5%,5%,20%,14,119942007,22,1994,200760%(),,3120107,,,,,,1:∀2007#,,(TaxIncidence),,,!,,,:,,;,,:,,,,,,,,,,,,,Fullerton&Metcalf(2002),,Browning&Johnson(1979)Pechman(1985),,,,,,,,Harberger(1962),,,,,,,,32::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Daviesetal(1984)Lyon&Schwab(1995)Fullerton&Roger(1993),,,Poterba(1989),,,Metcalf(1994,1995),,,Poterba(1989),,,,(2004),(2009),,:,,(2004),,,,,,(2009),,(2006),,,,Fullerton(1995),Metcalf(1999)Metcalfetal(2009),Rajemisonetal(2003):,,,,,,,,,,,()3320107,,,,,∃Metcalf(1999)Metcalfetal(2009),,,,,()m,m,,,,j:PjXj=%mi=1PiXij+Vjj=1,2,&,m(1),Pjj,Vjj,Xjj,Xijji(1),:Pj=%mi=1aijPi+vjj=1,2,&,m(2)aij=XijXjji,ji,vj=VjXjj,1,Rajemisonetal(2003)Metcalfetal(2009),,,,,,,,:Pj=%mi=1aijPi+(1+tj)vj+%mi=1aij1iPi+%mi=1aij2iPi+sjPjj=1,2,&m(3),Pjj,aijji,Pii,tjj,vjj,1ii,2ii,sjj,,,,,,:34::∃(1999)P=(I-A∋(I+[1]+[2])-S)-1(I+T)V(4)Pm,Im,Am(m,,[1],[2],S,T,,Vm∋,-1,,:,T=0P0,TP1,zt=P1-P0P0,(),∀2002#42:=/:=/,2003∀#∀2002#∀2002#∀#,:,,,∀#,,,,,,RAS(,2007;,1996),:,;,,,,,,2.4%,!,!,,,,!!!3520107,!!,!1562%,,(),!,!!,:1)!;2);3),!,,0007%!!,,!,!!!!,∀2002#,!,1374%!,,,,,,,,!!!!!!!122,,23%,664%,283%,948%,∀2002#,,,()∀2003#2002,,,36::∀2002#,,∀#,,,,10%;,10%,5%,,7,5%,,,,,1,,200277028,60298861464,,4656,9713,4823,367,,,10%,24009;10%,134223表1不同收入组家庭人均收入和税收负担单位:元收入组比例家庭人数人均总收入人均可支配收入人均消费支出增值税资源税营业税消费税四税困难户5%34920639519574620795216274119277217662093最低收入户10%34325276824086238791186181363222203224009低收入户10%3343833013649163259592552318945592728330中等偏下户20%32520918493196420597327812486101346342593中等收入户20%30470613766568154529442243278365437755308中等偏上户20%2919437998869516939955386942210905553870734高收入户10%278125550711772828919946867551507704591335最高收入户10%26820208431899585130406998912832244191006134223全国平均304817747702860298846563679713482361464(),,,,3720107,,,2,,1069%,798%,997%,707%,141,,,表2不同收入组的年度收入平均负担率单位:%收入组比例增值税资源税营业税消费税四税困难户5%831006142091069最低收入户10%773006134084997低收入户10%699005125075904中等偏下户20%66500512407864中等收入户20%635005126066831中等偏上户20%607005123062798高收入户10%58300512806776最高收入户10%521004129053707全国平均604005126063798最低最高148150104158141表3不同收入组的终身收入平均负担率单位:%收入组比例增值税资源税营业税消费税四税困难户5%7830061330851007最低收入户10%780061350851005低收入户10%783006140841012中等偏下户20%7790061450821013中等收入户20%775006153081014中等偏上户20%776006157081019高收入户10%770061690791024最高收入户10%7580061870771029全国平均772006161081019最低最高103100072110098,3,,,,31005%,1029%,,Metcalf(1994,1995)3,,,103,,,,,,,,,(),,!!!38::,,,4523,,,,1%,表4不同收入组的年度收入平均负担率(稳健性)单位:%收入组比例增值税资源税营业税消费税四税困难户5%837006207091141最低收入户10%7790061960851065低收入户10%705005186075971中等偏下户20%67100518507931中等收入户20%641005185066897中等偏上户20%615005181063863高收入户10%59100518406839最高收入户10%529004175053762全国平均100%612005182063861最低最高147150112160140表5不同收入组的终身收入平均负担率(稳健性)单位:%收入组比例增值税资源税营业税消费税四税困难户5%7880061950851074最低收入户10%7860061980851075低收入户10%790062080841087中等偏下户20%7870062170831092中等收入户20%7830062260811095中等偏上户20%786006231081103高收入户10%780062430791108最高收入户10%770062560771109全国平均100%7810062330811最低最高10210007711009724,,,!,,,,24,35,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,3920107,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2007:∀#,∀#5,2006:∀#,∀#12,2005:∀2002#,,2005:∀2002#,,2006:∀2002#,,2004:∀2003#,,2006:∀#,,1999:∀#,,1996:∀RAS#,∀#()341,2004:∀#,∀#5,2009:∀#,∀#9Browning,E.K.,andJohnson,W.R.,1979,TheDistributionoftheTaxBurden,Washington,DC:AmericanEnterpriseInstitute.Davies,JamesB.,StHilaire,France,andWhalley,John,1984,SomeCalculationsofLifetimeTaxIncidence!,AmericanEconomicReview,Vol.74,No.4,pp.63349.Fullerton,D,1996,WhyHaveSeparateEnvironmentalTaxes?!,TaxPolicyandtheEconomy.Vol.10,pp.3370.Fullerton,D.,andRogers,D.L.1993,WhoBearstheLifetimeTaxBurden?,Washington,DC:BrookingsInstitution.Fullerton,D.,andMetcalf,GilbertE.,2002,Taxincidence!,In:A.J.Auerbach&M.Feldstein(ed.),HandbookofPublicEconomics,Edition1,Vol.4,Chapter26,pp.17871872.Harberger,A.C.,1962,TheIncidenceoftheCorporationIncomeTax!,JournalofPoliticalEconomy,Vol.70,pp.21540.Lyon,Andrew,andSchwab,RobertM,1995,ConsumptionTaxesinaLifeCycleFramework:AreSinTaxesRegressive?!,ReviewofEconomicsandStatistics,Vol.77,No.3,pp.389406.Metcalf,GilbertE.,1994,TheLifetimeIncidenceofStateandLocalTaxes:MeasuringChangesDuringthe1980s!,InJoelSlemrod(ed.),TaxProgressivityinthe1980s,CambridgeUniversityPress,pp.5988.Metcalf,GilbertE.,1994,Lifecyclevs.AnnualPerspectivesontheIncidenceofaValueAddedTax!,TaxPolicyandtheEconomy,Vol.8,pp.4564.Metcalf,GilbertE.1999,ADistributionalAnalysisofGreenTaxReforms!,NationalTaxJournal,Vol.52,No.4,pp.655682.Metcalf,GilbertE.,Hassett,KevinA.,andAparnaMathur,2009,TheIncidenceofaU.S.CarbonTax:ALifetimeandRegionalAnalysis!,EnergyJournal,Vol.30,No.2,pp.155178.Pechman,J.,1985,WhoPaidtheTaxes:196685?Washington,DC:BrookingsInstitutionPress.Poterba,JamesM,1989,LifetimeIncidenceandtheDistributionalBurdenofExciseTaxes!,AmericanEconomicReview,Vol.79,No.2,pp.3