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2010－08－281971－、1983－1987－1967－、。12331．6100662．6100163．610074。。2009。。F293.3A1001－8409201103－0024－07EmpiricalAnalysisoftheEffectofInvestmentDemandonHousePriceinChinaZHANGHai-yang1YUANXiao-li2CHENZhuo3GUOHong31．DongxingSecuritiesCo．Ltd．Chengdu6100662．SichuanBranchofBankofChina6100163．SchoolofBusinessandManagementSouthwesternUniversityofFinanceandEconomicsChengdu610074AbstractBasedonrealityofthegamebetweenhousepriceandpoliciesthispaperpointsoutthatthedemandpushesupthecontinualrisingofhouseprice．Thenitsubdividesthedemandsintoconsumptiondemandandinvestmentde-mand．Afterthequalitativeanalysisamodelisbuilttoanalyzethehousepriceconsideringbothdemands．Theempiri-calstudyshowsthatinvestmentdemandhasplayedanimportantroleintherisingofhousepricein2009．Finallythispa-perpointsoutthatcontrollinginvestmentdemandcanlowerhouseprice．Keywordshousepriceconsumptiondemandinvestmentdemand12004。200820072008。。201065037/32%。1。。200361215。2008818、13·42·4。、、、、。200912201046、3、3。20106。。。“。”1“”。。、。“”。2。。、、2008、、、、20002。2007、、、、720043。20082001～20064。。、20055。、20086。2009、7。20098。20099。2008“”10。2009、。11。、2009、12。。。。。。。“”。。。。。3。·52·。3．1。。、、。、。。、、、。。197818%200946.6%。。———。。2。3．2“”。“”。“”。3。“”。“”、。、、。200813。4。25%。95%。、、、、、、。。25%。———。1998200924536。20059《》《》20064000200950000。。。。·62·。3．3。=+。。“”。。。。。“”。。。20%5。。。。。、、2005“。”14。5。。。6。D1D2D3D4SPQ。6。44．1。。。。GDP、。。。“”“”。、、·72·。。“”、、。、、1998～2009HPt、GDPt、CRt、DRt、CSt、FSt、FRt。4．2HPt=FDCtDItDCt=f1GDPtCRtDRtDIt=f2CStFStFRt{1HPtDCtDItGDPtCRtDRtCSt“”FSt+FRt。10。HPt=Ff1GDPtCRtDRt+f2CStFStFRt+Ut2Ut。OLSLnHPt=a0+a1*LnGDPt+a2*CRt+a3*LnDRt+a4*LnCSt+a5*LnFSt+a6*FRt+ut34．34．3．1。—ADF。1。4.3.2。。1TPHPt－7.8373330.000104GDPt3.6143880.005621CRt－5.8406700.0002471DRt4.8672600.000887CSt7.9024540.000000FSt6.3574100.002112FRt－3.8729830.004721OLS。。7。。ADFK=0ADF2。2ADFADFTestStatistic－3.1833211%CriticalValue*－4.22075%CriticalValue－3.180110%CriticalValue－2.734925%。。OLS。EviewsOLS。LnHPt=－1.572673668+0.8157913692*LnGDPt－.02498786555*CRt+0.3610519394*LnDRt－0.3267379453*LnCSt－0.008551943761*LnFSt+0.1040684755*FRt4·82·3。3EviewsOLStPLogGDP0.8157911.3467160.2359CR－0.024988－1.3858150.2244LogDR0.3610520.4103900.6985LogCS－0.326738－0.6558000.5409LogFS－0.008552－0.2429900.8177FR0.1040683.3175990.0211R－squared=0.993709F－statistic=131.6249DW=2.2399.37%F。t。4.4。。5。LnHPt=b0+b1*LnGDPt+b2*CRt+b3*LnDRt+b4*LnCSt+b5*LnFSt+b6*FRt+ut5Y=a+b1X1+b2X2+……+bkXk+U6y=c+d1x1+c2x2+……+ckxk+u77daa=Y－Σki=1biXibi=SYSidi。4。。0K9306.681000。4123456Value5.4257960.5173830.0348400.0203110.0010880.000583CumulativeProportion0.90430.99050.99630.99970.99991.0000EigenvectorsloadingsVariablePC1PC2PC3PC4PC5PC6LogGDP0.425951－0.123539－0.4547260.019460－0.483770－0.601761CR0.423314－0.1130810.589028－0.666139－0.016420－0.130591LogDR0.426293－0.141478－0.290627－0.108523－0.2951330.784164LogCS0.425849－0.148012－0.337640－0.0084290.822846－0.074819LogFS0.421612－0.1751870.4977540.736409－0.0368570.011713FR0.3139120.9483340.0068950.0416350.0126090.0135104F1PC190.43%F1NlnHPt=0.421685F1=0.1796167LnGDPt+0.178505164*CRt+0.179761364*LnDRt+0.179574136*LnCSt+0.177787456*LnFSt+0.132371982*FRt85。5sidisybiXia0.4877160.1796171474.4223620.1785051640.3903280.1797613640.5149720.1795741361.7204440.1777874560.4923660.1323719820.2869480.105677856176716.450.0115824340.6250.1321508169917.4208330.1000606622490.6030.0296526687632.620.077145610.333333－527.1913·92·4.5LnHPt=－527.1913+0.105677856*LnGDPt+0.01158243*CRt+0.132150816*LnDRt+0.100060662*LnCSt+0.029652668*LnFSt+0.07714561*FRt+ut9。20090.24322620091%24.32%0.206795620091%20.67%。54.145.9。5、。。、。。“”。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。。、、。。1.—J．20091242－47．2．J．20083425－33．3．D．2007．4．D．2008．5．J．2005528－3780．6．、、1992～2006J．20081116－21．7．J．2009493－96．8．J．2009389－92．9．J．200910537－543．10．“”、—J．20081048－69．11．J．2009157－62．12．J．2009535－38．13．D．2008．14．J．2005664－75．·03·