我国开征碳税的CGE模拟与碳税法条文设计 (1)

我国开征碳税的CGE模拟与碳税法条文设计张明喜:碳税的开征有利于减少二氧化碳的排放和保护环境,笔者首先对国内外碳税相关的实证研究进行述评,然后建立我国开征碳税的CGE模型并进行了模拟研究发现,征收碳税对我国的经济影响不大,短期内减少GDP约0.51%,长期内减少GDP约0.08%,但二氧化碳的排放量将大幅度下降;同时碳税对经济结构中各个行业的产出具有负面影响,其中对矿产采掘业的影响最大在借鉴国际碳税开征经验的基础上,本文系统地设计了碳税法的相关条款,包括纳税人征税范围计税依据税率征收环节和税收优惠等等:碳税可计算的一般均衡模型条款设计:张明喜,科学技术部中国科学技术发展战略研究院助理研究员博士,100038:F812.42:A:1002-8102(2010)03-0061-062002,,200726.3,20073.7%,,,,,,CO2,,;,,,,,,,,,,,,一碳税相关研究综述Goto(2005);FlorosVlachou(2005),;CreedySleeman(2006),,;Lee(2008),GDP,GDP(2002)MARKAL-MACRO,,,;(2002),,,;(2005),;(2006),(2009)1995!2005GDP,,28,6120103:,,CGE,,二开征碳税后的CGE模拟分析()CGE,,,:,,CGE,,,,,,,,,,(SAM),SAMCGECGE,SAMCGE2007,,,∀#([1987]18),5(27),GDP,CO2,EnergyInformationAgency(2008)CGESAM,5CGE,CGE,,,,,,CGEGAMS()20071225:///,17,8~102008,10/,6.5/:5101.1,0.51%0.82%,,,,,,(),0.34%078%62Finance&TradeEconomics,No3,20101:%05/10/GDP270989.5269607.43-0.51268767.36-0.82()77759.977495.52-0.3477145.60-0.79154764.0154377.13-0.25153866.40-0.58()26677.226621.22-0.2126565.20-0.42117011.4117069.900.05115361.54-1.41141739.8131676.30-7.1128558.03-9.3/588504.8560845.09-4.7542012.93-7.9/94151.390291.13-4.187278.29-7.3/56058.355363.17-1.2454656.83-2.5CO2()73.068.02-6.863.93-12.4,CO2,,,;,CGE,2.,2027GDP0.08%,,,,,,,2027,GDPGDP,,,,,,,,,CO2,CO22.3%4.5%2(2027):%05/10/GDP573918.8570991.81-0.08569212.67-0.06()8468984401.06-0.0784019.96-0.04291126.7290398.880.12289438.170.29()44877.644783.36-0.0744689.11-0.18334010.4334177.410.06329300.85-0.71404598.1375871.63-5.40366970.48-9.73/16798941600938.98-3.741547182.37-5.25/268756.1257737.10-2.84249136.90-4.35/160019.1158034.86-0.91156018.62-1.75CO2()165.3161.50-2.3157.86-4.512,,,716320103,,,三碳税的国际经验2090,,1999,,,,2007101200871,,,CO2CO2,,∃,200871,8,,,,,(),,;CO2CO2,,:2008CO220,107.15%;CO2,5.2,68.58;&12.10,,;19961,50%,,CO214.59;∋2012CO217.61,(CO214.62,,,,,,,CO2,,,:(),,,,;50%;,,()()64Finance&TradeEconomics,No3,2010∃%&∋(,,101,20081,1=0106092005,1=000052/CO23216,1998,1=04537730CO2,20081226,1=0587,CO2CO283%,(),,,四碳税法相关条款设计,,:(),:,(),,(N2O)(CH4)(O3)(SF6)(HFC)(PFC):,(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,∀IPCC#,:=)=)):,,;,,;;,;(),,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,6520103(),,;,,,,,,,,,,,,,:,;,(),,:,,,,,,,,CCS(),,,,,,:1.:∀#,∀()#2002102.:∀#,∀#200823.:∀#,∀#200694.:∀#,∀#200995.:∀#,∀#200946.:∀#,∀#2005107.:∀#,∀#200288.:∀#,∀#200969.:∀#,∀#2009610.:∀#,(),2008111811.:∀CGE#,,200112.CreedyJ,SleemanC,Carbontaxation,pricesandwelfareinNewZealand.EcologicalEconomics,57,2006,pp.333-345.13.EnergyInformationAgency(EIA).InternationalEnergyOutlook2008.WashingtonDC:U.S.DepartmentofEnergy,2008,pp.25-48.14.FlorosN.,Vlachou,AEnergydemandandenergy-relatedCO2emissionsinGreekmanufacturing:Assessingtheimpactofacarbontax.EnergyEconomics,27,2005,pp.387-413.15.GotoN,Macroeconomicandsectoralimpactsofcarbontaxation.EnergyEconomics,4,1995,pp.277-292.16.LeeCF,LinSJ,LewisC,Analysisoftheimpactsofcombiningcarbontaxationandemissiontradingondifferentindustrysectors.EnergyPolicy,36,2008,pp.722-729.责任编辑:老牛/:!4,∀#30,/,,∀#,,∀#!!2010331,[e-mail]∀#∀财贸经济#杂志社2010年2月22日66Finance&TradeEconomics,No3,2010