投资评估方法

成员：李健、王纯瑞、朱卫、申欣陈龙、方兆运、王栋坤、刘恒Chapter4:CompoundedCashFlowMethodsChapter5:SelectedFurthenApplicationsofInvestmentAppraisalMethods2019年9月28日星期六CONTENTS4.1CompoundValue(CV)Method4.2CriticalDebtInterestRate(CDIR)Method4.3VisualisationofFinancialImplications(VoFI)Method5.1IncomeTaxesandInvestmentDecisions5.2TheAssessmentofForeignDirectInvestments4.1CompoundValueMethodThecompoundvalue(CV)methodisadynamicinvestmentappraisalmethodthatusesthecompoundvalueasitstargetmeasure.Thecompoundvalueistheoverallnetmonetarygainorlossresultingfromtheinvestmentprojectandisrelatedtotheendofitseconomiclife.4.1CompoundValueMethodThreeassumptions:Differentinterestrates:adebtinterestrateforborrowingsandacreditinterestrateforfinancialinvestmentsUnlimitedamountscanbeborrowedorinvestedattheseratesInterestratesareassumedtobeindependentoftheamountborrowedorinvested4.1CompoundValueMethod4.1.1ProhibitedaccountbalancingSeparateaccountsareestablishedforthenetcashinflowsandnetcashoutflows.Theinflowsearnthecreditinterestrate(c)(CVT+)andtheoutflowsincurthedebtinterestrate(d)(CVT-).Thecompoundvaluesattheendoftheplanningperiodare:4.1CompoundValueMethod4.1.2MandatoryaccountbalancingOnlyoneaccount(CV)areassignedtowhichallcashinflowsandoutflows(NCFt).iftheproject-specificfinancialassetsatbeginningoftheperiod(CVt-1)arenegative,usingthedebtinterestrate(d)orusingthecreditinterestrate(c)ifCVt-1ispositive.4.1CompoundValueMethodTwoconcepts:Absoluteprofitability:isachievedifaninvestmentproject'scompoundvalueisgreaterthanzero.Relativeprofitability:isachievedifaninvestmentprojecthasahighercompoundvaluethanthealternativeinvestmentproject(s).4.1CompoundValueMethodUsingthemandatoryaccountbalancingassumption:CVt=32423.80Usingtheprohibitedaccountbalancingassumption:ProjectA:Thedebtinterestrate(d)is10%;Thecreditinterestrate(c)is6%Example14.1CompoundValueMethodAssessmentofthemethod:TheCVmethodevaluationislargelythesameasthatpresentedfortheNPVmethod.TherequireddataareidenticalexceptthattheCVmethodrequiresbothdebtandcreditinterestrates.4.1CompoundValueMethodAssessmentofthemethod:But,somedifferencesdoexistbetweenCVandNPV:TheCVmethodavoidstheassumptionofaperfectcapitalmarketandwithittheuseofauniformdiscountrate.TheCVmodelassumptionsaremorerealisticthanthoseoftheNPVmethod.However,ifdebtandcreditinterestratesdeviateonlyslightlyfromeachother,theresultsofboththeCVandNPVcalculationswillbeoftenthesameinpractice.4.2CriticalDebtInterestRateMethodThecriticaldebtinterestratemethodassumesseparatedebtandcreditinterestrates.Thecriticaldebtinterestrateservesasthetargetmeasureforthismethod.Thecriticaldebtinterestrateistheratethat(withagivencreditinterestrate)resultsinacompoundvalueofzero.Aninvestmentprojectisabsolutelyprofitableifitscriticaldebtinterestrateexceedsthemarket’sdebtinterestrate.4.2CriticalDebtInterestRateMethodAnapproximationofthecriticaldebtinterestrate：TheCDIRmethodhavearelationshipsimilartothatoftheinternalrateofreturn(IRR).AninterpolationorextrapolationcanbeexecutedusingaformulasimilartotheoneusedtocalculatewiththeIRRmethod.Theaccuracyoftheapproximationdependsonthedifferencebetweenthedebtinterestratesandhowfarfromzerotheresultingcompoundvalueslay.4.2CriticalDebtInterestRateMethodApplicationofthemethod:Theabsoluteprofitabilityassessments:AbsoluteprofitabilityresultsarethesamefortheCDIRmethodastheyarefortheCVmethod,inthecaseofisolatedinvestmentprojects.4.2CriticalDebtInterestRateMethodApplicationofthemethod:Therelativeprofitabilityassessments:Criticaldebtinterestratecomparisonsusuallyfailtoyieldmeaningfulresults,sincecapitaltie-upandeconomiclifedifferencesareassumedtobebalancedbythecriticaldebtinterestrate;TheuseoftheCDIRmethodwithafictitiousdifferentialinvestmentisproblematic,becausetheresultingcompoundvaluedoesnotalwaysequatetothedifferencebetweenthecompoundvaluesoftheprojectsunderconsideration;TheCDIRmethodcanbeusedtoassessrelativeprofitabilityonlyinsomecases.SinceallofthesecasescanalsobeassessedusingtheCVmethod,theCDIRmethodisnotrecommendedforassessingrelativeprofitability.4.2CriticalDebtInterestRateMethodExample2(ThisexampledrawsondatausedforExample1&3)Prohibitedaccountbalancing:ProjectA:ProjectB:Acriticaldebtinterestrateof17.17%canbecalculatedinthesameway.Result:Becausethedebtinterestrateis10%,andthereforelowerthanthecriticaldebtinterestrates,bothprojectsareabsolutelyprofitable.4.2CriticalDebtInterestRateMethodAssessmentofthemethod:ThedatarequiredisthesameasfortheCVmethodandthecomputationaleffortisonlyslightlyhigher.BecausetheassumptionsoftheCVmethodreflecttherealitymoreclosely,thismethodispreferabletotheCDIRmethod.4.3VisualisationofFinancialImplicationsMethod(VoFI)Acomprehensivefinancialplanthatconsidersallcashflowsconnectedwithaninvestmentproject.TargetmeasuresfortheVoFImethodcanbecompoundvalues,innitialvalues,intermediatevalues,withdrawals.Compoundvaluesareconsideredhere,primarilybecauseoftheirclarity.4.3VisualisationofFinancialImplicationsMethod(VoFI)Twoconcepts:Aninvestmentprojectisabsolutelyprofitableifitscompoundvalueexceedsthe