EnergyPolicy32(2004)493–505GreenhousegasemissionsinNorway:docarbontaxeswork?AnnegreteBruvoll*,BodilMeretheLarsenResearchDepartment,StatisticsNorway,P.O.Box8131Dep,0033Oslo,NorwayAbstractDuringthelastdecade,Norwayhascarriedoutanambitiousclimatepolicy.Themainpolicytoolisarelativelyhighcarbontax,whichwasimplementedalreadyin1991.DataforthedevelopmentinCO2emissionssincethenprovideauniqueopportunitytoevaluatecarbontaxesasapolicytool.Torevealthedrivingforcesbehindthechangesinthethreemostimportantclimategases,CO2,methaneandN2Ointheperiod1990–1999,wedecomposetheactuallyobservedemissionschanges,anduseanappliedgeneralequilibriumsimulationtolookintothespecificeffectofcarbontaxes.Althoughtotalemissionshaveincreased,wefindasignificantreductioninemissionsperunitofGDPovertheperiodduetoreducedenergyintensity,changesintheenergymixandreducedprocessemissions.Despiteconsiderabletaxesandpriceincreasesforsomefuel-types,thecarbontaxeffecthasbeenmodest.WhilethepartialeffectfromlowerenergyintensityandenergymixchangeswasareductioninCO2emissionsof14percent,thecarbontaxescontributedtoonly2percentreduction.Thisrelativelysmalleffectrelatestoextensivetaxexemptionsandrelativelyinelasticdemandinthesectorsinwhichthetaxisactuallyimplemented.r2003ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.Keywords:Greenhousegasemissions;Carbontaxes;Appliedgeneralequilibriummodel1.IntroductionTherecognitionoftheclimatechangeeffectfromgreenhousegaseshasledcountriestoimplementregulationsandtaxestocurbtheseemissions.Withinafewyears,weexpectthattheuseofpricemechanismstocombatclimategasemissionswillbeexpanded,althoughitislikelythatmanycountrieswillpartici-pateinaquota-basedemissiontradingsystemforgreenhousegasestofulfilltheKyotoProtocol.Thequestionoftheeffectoftheuseofpricemechanismsinclimatepolicyremainsunansweredempirically.Somecountries,amongthemNorway,haveimplemen-tedPigouviancarbontaxes.TheNorwegiancarbontaxesareamongthehighestintheworld,measuredinpertonCO2,andthehistorythenprovidesresearcherswithauniqueopportunitytoevaluatetheeffectsofsuchtaxes,andtoshedlightonthepossibleeffectsofaquota-basedemissiontradingsystemforCO2.InNorway,aswellasinotherOECDcountries,theemissionsofgreenhousegasesexhibitedrelativedecou-plingfromeconomicgrowthoverthe1990–1999period:emissionsinOECDincreasedbyabout4percent,whereasGDPgrewbyalmost23percent(OECD,2002).Thisdecouplingisaresultofrelativepricechangesandseveralothermechanisms.Particularly,theNorwegiancarbontaxesincreasefossilfuelprices,whichinfluenceclimategasemissionsdirectlyandindirectly.Thedirecteffectsareenergyefficiencyandsubstitution,andtheindirecteffectscomethroughoverallcosttransfers,industrycompetitionandlabormarketadjustments.Relativepricechangesbetweeninputfactorsfurtherinfluencethechoiceofmoreorlessenergy-efficienttechnologies.Overtime,alsoageneraltechnologicalprogresspullstowardsmoreenergy-efficienttechnologies,bothinhouseholdsandinindustrialproductionprocesses.Thesepricechangesfurtherinfluencethecompositionofsectors,totalproductionandemissions.BothtechnologicalprogressandcarbontaxespulltowardsloweremissionsperGDPunit.However,agrowthinpollutingsectors,suchasthecrudeoilandenergy-intensiveindustries,worksintheoppositedirection.Finally,climategasregulationsparticularlydirectedatcertainemissionsources,suchaslandfillsandindustrialprocesses,influenceemissions.However,thespillovereffectsfromsuchregulationsarerelativelyinsignificantcomparedtothepriceeffectsfromcarbontaxes.ARTICLEINPRESS*Correspondingauthor.Tel.:+47-2109-4948;fax:+47-2109-4963.E-mailaddress:agb@ssb.no(A.Bruvoll).0301-4215/04/$-seefrontmatterr2003ElsevierLtd.Allrightsreserved.doi:10.1016/S0301-4215(03)00151-4Inthispaper,wedecomposeobservedchangesintheclimategasesCO2,methaneandN2Ofrom1990to1999intoeightdifferentdrivingforces,inordertorevealthemaindrivingforcesbehindtheclimategaschangesoverthelastdecade.Thisdecompositionprovidesadetaileddescriptionofthetotaleffectofprices,technologicalprogress,policymeasuresandotherfactorsinfluencingtheeconomy.TheliteratureoffersawiderangeofsimilardecompositionanalysesofthechangesinCO2emissions,seee.g.Schipperetal.(2001),MurtishawandSchipper(2001),Liaskasetal.(2000)andBruvollandMedin(2003).Ourstudydepartsfromthisliteratureinseveralaspects.First,weincludemethaneandN2O.WhileCO2contributestoabout75percentofclimategasemissions,thethreegasestogethercoverabout96percentofthetotalemissionsinNorway.Secondly,wealsoincludetheeffectofchangesinintermediates1intensityinthedecomposition.Thisisparticularlyrelevanttotypicallyprocess-relatedemissions,suchasmethaneandN2O,butalsotoexplainthechangesinCO2emissionsrelatedtoindustrialprocesses.Thesetwoaspectsyieldvaluableinsightintotheeffectofregula-tionsdirectedtowardsprocessemissions,suchasmethanetreatmentandagreementsbetweentheen-ergy-intensiveindustriesandtheauthoritiesonparti-cularprocess-relatedemissionreductions.Finally,comparedtoearlierNorwegiananalyses,wefocusontheperiodfrom1990to1999inordertoinvestigateparticularlytheeffectofthecarbontaxesthatwereimplementedin1991.Tolookintothepartialeffectofcarbontaxes,weapplyadisaggrega
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