瑞银（UBS）投资研究（英语版）

ANALYSTCERTIFICATIONANDREQUIREDDISCLOSURESBEGINONPAGE181UBSdoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthisreport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.abUBSInvestmentResearchGlobalEquityStrategySlowerChina:ReduceJapanoverweightandcutmaterialstoneutralChina:Morenegativenewsflowahead?GrowingevidenceofaslowdowninChinasuggeststousthatnewsflowfromthatsourcewillremainnegative,particularlyinthesectorsoftheeconomythatgovernmentpolicyhastargeted.Assuch,wemarginallyreduceweightingsinJapan(butremainoverweight)andtakebasicmaterialstoneutralfromasmalloverweight.Japan:ReducepositionbutstayoverweightWeremainsecularbullsonJapan.RestructuringhasimprovedRoICandcashflow,allowingJapantobenefitmorefromtheglobalupturn.Butinourviewtheprocessisincompleteandtheeconomynotimmune,atatimewhenconsensusincreasinglyappearstobelievethatitcouldbe.WeviewEuropeasaslightlysaferequityoption;stillleveragedtoUSgrowth,butlessexposedtoChinaandUSraterisk.Basicmaterials:FromsmalloverweighttoneutralThebasicmaterialssectorismoreexposedthanmosttoaChinaslowdown,atatimewhenvaluationsforcyclicalsectorsaremarginallyrich.Thus,whileUSgrowthcancontinuetoprovidesupport,weviewtheincreasingriskofnegative[e-mail][e-mail][e-mail][phone]BrianO'[e-mail][phone]GlobalEquityResearchGlobal-EquityStrategyGlobalEquityStrategy23June2004UBS2China:ConsequencesforJapanandmaterialsChangeinweightingsWesuggestthatinvestorstrimpositionsinJapanandinvesttheproceedsinEuropeex-UK.WearereducingouroverweightinJapanfrom100bpto75bp,andraiseEuropeex-UKto125bp.Wealsoreducethebasicmaterialssectorfromasmalloverweighttoaneutralposition,andsuggestdistributingtheproceedstowardsourexistingoverweightsectors–healthcare,financialsandespeciallytelecommunications.Chart1:RecommendedregionalweightingsChart2:Recommendedglobalsectorweightings00+50+75+125-250-150-100-500+50+100+150USEmergingmarketsUKAsiaexJapanJapanEuropebasispointsfrombenchmark-475-162-144-119000+147+331+422-600-400-2000+200+400+600EnergyConsumerDiscretionaryUtilitiesIndustrialsConsumerStaplesMaterialsInformationTechnologyTelecommunicationServicesFinancialsHealthCarebasispointsfrombenchmarkOverweightNeutralUnderweightSource:UBSestimatesSource:UBSestimatesThisreport:SummariseswhywearemakingthesechangesRevisitsJapaneserestructuringPresentstheevidencethataChinaslowdownhasbegunConsidersChina’simpactonJapanConsidersChina’simpactonbasicmaterialsWhy?IntherecentApril-Mayequitiessell-off,so-calledrisktrades,suchasJapanandthebasicmaterialssector,faredpoorly.Sincethen,however,Japanhasralliedby13.1%fromitsMaylows(inUSdollarterms),andthebasicmaterialssectorby8.8%,comparedwiththeMSCIWorldIndex’s6.0%return.And,thisfirmerrelativeperformancehascomedespiteincreasedandharderevidenceofadecelerationinChina’seconomicgrowth.Therefore,itseemslogicaltoustocontinuethereductioninpositionsinbasicmaterialsandJapan.WearereducingouroverweightinJapanandreducingbasicmaterialstoneutralGlobalEquityStrategy23June2004UBS3SpecificallyforJapan,whileremainingbullishonstructuralimprovement,wecontinuetobeconcernedaboutconsensuspositioning.UBSflowsdatasuggeststhatcumulative12-monthnetbuyingofJapanremainsnearahighofUS$5billion.RecentevidenceofdomesticeconomicstrengthinJapanhasraisedhopesthatthecountryis,finally,capableofdeliveringitsownendogenousgrowthstory.Whileagreeingthatthestructuralimprovementimpliesgreaterfollowthroughthanpreviously,westillstrugglewiththeideathatJapancanbucktheglobalcycle.Thepick-upininvestmenthasbeencrucialtothisrecoveryandhasbeenentirelylogical,asreturnsoncapitalhavemovedabovethecostofcapitalandascapacityutilisationhasrisen.However,wehavetwoconcerns:(1)thecapitalinvestmentcyclehasremainedtiedtotheexportcycle,andtheexportcyclehasbeengivenasignificantboostbysurgingChinesedemandinthepastthreeyears;and(2)capexisnowrisingabovedepreciationagain(accordingtoJapan’sMinistryofFinancedata),providingsomecyclicalthreattotheimprovedprofitabilitylevelsinJapanshouldexportorconsumptiondemandslowin2005.WehavealwayssaidthatourpositiveviewonJapanremainspredicatedonarobustviewofexternaldemand.Broadly,wecontinuetoseeglobaldemandasbeinghealthy,butwemustacknowledgethatdemandfromChinaappearstobebeginningamarkedslowdown.And,UBSforecaststheslowdowntocontinueintonextyearculminatinginasoftlandingfortheoverallChineseeconomy,butwithinevitablebumpylandingsforcertainsectors.ItseemsreasonabletoexpectthefirstroundimpactfromtheslowingtobefeltinAsianequitymarketsand,indeed,thishasbeenthecaseforAsiaex-Japan.Thus,wefocushereontheJapanesemarketbecauseithasnotreactedtothesameextentassomeoftheothermarketsinAsia.And,whiletherearegoodreasonsforthis,whichweexplorebelow,wedoubtthatJapancanremainimmune.Wealsonotethat