第15章国际投资实操

第十五章全球投资实操国际投资学Instruction:PartOneisamustinyourassignmentForPartTwotoThree,youcanchoosewhethertodoornotPartFourisalsoamustinyourassignmentPartOne：FindYourStocksRelativeWebSite：SECInfo（)Hoover's（)Morningstar()MSNMoney(money.msn.com)ReutersInvesting()Yahoo（financ.yahoo.com)GoogleFinance(()AOL'sStockSearch()BusinessWeekTheAnalysisProcessFindingCandidatesAnalyzingStocks/Bonds/Funds/Derivatives,etc.QuickPrequalify:Companyandindustryoverview;Marketcapitalization;Valuationratios(P/E,P/S,etc.)TradingvolumeFloatCashflowHistoricalsalesandearningsgrowthCheckthebuzz(查找公司相关不良新闻）DetailedAnalysisStep1：AnalyzingAnalystsDataStep2：ValuationStep3：EstalishingTargetPricesStep4:IndustryAnalysisStep5:BusinessPlanAnalysisStep6:AssessManagementQualityStep7:FinancialStrengthAnalysisStep8:Profitablility&GrowthAnalysisStep9：DetectingRedFlagsStep10：OwnershipConsiderationsStep11:PriceChartsWhentoSellSomecertaineventssuchasdeterioratingfundamentals,significantearningsrestatements,andannouncmentsoflargeacquisitionswarnallplayersthatit'stimetosell.Screening(GoogleFinance)CompanySize:MarketCapitalizationSpecifya$1billionminimummarketcap.Smallercompaniesareusuallyriskierthanlargercompanies.Theytypicallyofferlessdiverseproductlines,weakerbalancesheets,andlessexperiencedealingwitheconomicdownturns.Thus,youcanreduceyourriskbyavoidingverysmallfirms.Mostinvestorsusemarketcapitalization,whichishowmuchyou’dhavetoshellouttobuyallofafirm’sshares,tomeasurecompanysize.Firmswithmarketcapsbelow$2billionaretermedsmall-caps,andthoseabove$8billionarelarge-caps.Thoseinbetweenaremid-caps.Isetmyminimummarketcapat$1billion.Tryreducingyourminimumto$500million(500M)ifyouwanttoseemorestocks,orincreasingitto$5billionifyouwanttocutyourrisk.Valuation:Price/SalesRatioSpecifyaminimumP/Sratioof2andamaximumof7.Theprice/salesratioissimilartothemorefamiliarprice/earnings(P/E)ratio,exceptthatitcomparesthecurrentsharepricetothelast12months’per-sharesalesinsteadofper-shareearnings.ThescreenavoidsstockswithP/Sratiosbelow2becausethosestocksaremorelikelyvaluecandidatesthangrowthstocks.Onthedownside,settingthatminimumrulesoutsupermarketchainsandotherlow-profit-marginbusinesses.Thewaythemathworks,stockswithlowprofitmarginsalsohavelowP/Sratios.ChangeyourminimumP/Srequirementto1ifyouwanttoseesuchstocks.Price/salesratioscanrunashighas10,andsometimesmuchhigherforin-favorgrowthstocks.Specifyingamaximum7P/Savoidsoverpricedstocks.SinceIarbitrarilypickedthatnumber,tryincreasingitto8or9ifyouwanttoseemorestocks,orcutitto5or6ifyouwanttocutyourrisk.Cash-Rich:CurrentRatioSpecifya2.5minimum.Giventherecentlyfragilecreditmarkets,theslightesthintofacashshortagecansinkastock.Thus,it’simportanttoreducetheoddsofthathappeningtoyourstocks.Usingthecurrentratiotocheckafirm’scashpositionisthefirstoftwoselectioncriteriaIusetoachievethatgoal.Thecurrentratiocomparescurrentassetssuchascash,inventories,andaccountsreceivablestoshort-termdebtsuchaspayrollexpensesandothercurrentbills.Aratioof1meansthatcurrentassetsequalliabilities,whilea2ratiomeansthatcurrentassetsaredoublecurrentliabilities.Settingtheminimumallowablecurrentratioat2.5ensuresthatpassingfirmshaveplentyofcash.AlthoughIarbitrarilypickedthatnumber,Idon’tseemuchadvantageinuppingthatminimum,andIcertainlywouldn’tlowerit.AddthecurrentratiorequirementtothescreenbyselectingAddCriteria,andthenFinancialRatios,andfinallyCurrentRatio.NoDebt:TotalDebt/EquityRatioSpecifya0.1maximum(mostrecentquarter).Refinancingdebtisstillproblematicforallbutthetopcredit-ratedcorporations.Youcanavoidsuchissuesbylimitingyourpickstostockscarryingnolong-termdebt.Todothat,youcanusethetotaldebt-to-equityratio,whichcomparesthetotalofshort-andlong-termdebttoshareholders’equity(bookvalue).Whileit’stemptingtospecifya0ratio,Isetmymaximumat0.1toavoidrulingoutfirmscarryingincidentaldebtitems,suchasleaseobligationsontheirbalancesheets.Profitable:ReturnonEquitySpecifya20%minimum(TTM).Unlessyou’relookingforbeaten-downvaluestocks,yourbestcandidatesarealwaysprofitablefirmsasopposedtomoneylosers.Returnonequity(ROE)measuresprofitabilitybycomparingnetincometoshareholders’equity(bookvalue).MostmoneymanagersthatIknowrequireaminimum15percentROE.However,hereIrequireaminimum20percentROEtofocusonthemostprofitablecandidates.Trycuttingyourminimumto15percentifyouwanttoseemorestocks.FollowtheMoney:InstitutionalOwnershipSpecify40%minimuminstitutionalownership.Institutionalbuyerssuchasmutualfundsandpensionplansaremorewiredintothemarketthanindividualinvestors.Iftheydon’townastock,youshouldn’teither.“Institutionalownership”isthepercentageofafirm’ssharesheldbythosebigplayers.Thebestgrowthcandidatesarestocksthatareinfavorwiththesmartmoney.Institutionalownershiprangesfrom40to95percentforin-favorstocks.GrowthRules:Five-YearRevenueGrowthSpecify10%minimumfive-yearrevenuegrowth.Growthstocks,bydefinition,shouldbeg