英文投资研究报告经典范文-XXXXCFAResearchChallenge

Copper-bottomedinvestmentWroclawUniversityofEconomicsMarta,Katarzyna,Kamil,Jan,PiotrLondon,April2013CompanyOverviewIndustry&CompetitorsFinancialAnalysisValuationRiskAnalysisConclusionIntroductionMarketprofileTicker(Bloomberg)KGH:PW52-weekpricerange(PLN)111.4–194.52012dividendyield24.2%Marketcapitalization(USDbn)12.1Averagedailytradedvalue(USDmn)40.6Freefloat68%ShareinWIG2014.3%P/E20127.5StateTreasury32%23%39%6%OtherDiluted68%StateTreasuryPolishinstitutionalinvestorsForeigninstitutionalinvestorsIndividualinvestorsShareholderstructure2013HYreportJuly30,2013StrategyupdateMid-2013NewprojectsupdateMid-2013ForthcomingEventsMainfeatures9thcopperproducerglobally1stsilverproducerglobally4thresourcebaseintheworldHighqualityproductsCompanyOverviewIndustry&CompetitorsFinancialAnalysisValuationRiskAnalysisConclusionRecommendationKeydriversRobustpipelineofnewprojects(58%increaseinproductionvolumeby2017)Increasingoperationalefficiency(EBITDAmarginincreasefrom35%in2012to45%in2017)StablemarketconditionsSoundfinancialposition(USD6.4bnBalancesheetheadroom)HoldingperiodreturnEndof2013Endof2014Endof201527%39%56%Upside:18.6%Targetprice:PLN220BUYRecommendation80100120140160180200220240Feb/12Mar/12Apr/12May/12Jun/12Jul/12Aug/12Sep/12Oct/12Nov/12Dec/12Jan/13Feb/13Targetprice(12M)Currentprice(at15-Feb-13)Closingprice18.6%upsidePLN220PLN185.5CompanyOverviewIndustry&CompetitorsFinancialAnalysisValuationRiskAnalysisConclusionLimitedriskofQuadra’sacquisitionQuadra’sexperienceinM&AKnow-howregardingopenpitminesStrongfinancialpositionofKGHMbeforeacquisitionTakeoverpriceNAV1961EstablishmentofKGHM1997IPOonWarsawStockExchange2010Afton-Ajax–firstoverseasexpansionprojectinCanada2012AcquisitionofQuadraFNXMiningLtd-FriendlytakeoverthroughPlanofArrangementBusinessdescriptionNewprojectsinbusiness-friendlycountriesExhaustivedue-diligencepriortoacquisitionPositiveupdatesStrictmonitoringCompanyOverviewIndustry&CompetitorsFinancialAnalysisValuationRiskAnalysisConclusionBusinessdescriptionCompanyOverviewIndustry&CompetitorsFinancialAnalysisValuationRiskAnalysisConclusionBusinessdescriptionSpecificationHighoperationalleverage-stronglabourunions,undergroundminesconditionsRevenuesdependentoncopperpriceandUSD/PLNexchangerate–effectivehedgingstrategiesForeignoperationscontributiontoEBITDA0246810122012E2013E2014E2015E2016E2017EEBITDA(PLNbn)KGHMEBITDA(PLNbn)KGHMInternationalIndustryoverview&competitivepositioningCompanyOverviewIndustry&CompetitorsFinancialAnalysisValuationRiskAnalysisConclusion012345ThreatofNewEntrantsBargainingPowerofBuyersThreatofSubstituteProductsCompetitionintheIndustryBargainingPowerofSuppliersIndustryoverviewKeycoppermarketcharacteristicsHighentrybarriersLowproductdifferentiationLackofcopperperfectsubstitutesIndividualcopperproducerasprice-takerCompanyOverviewIndustry&CompetitorsFinancialAnalysisValuationRiskAnalysisConclusion60001100016000210002600031000201120122013E2014E2015E2016E2017E'000tCoppersurplusexpectedBaseCaseMineOutputHighlyProbableProjectsProbableProjectsPossibleProjectsDemandForMineOutput0200040006000800010000199920022005200820112014E2017E2020EUSD/tCopperpricedecrease2012KGHMcashextractioncostIndustryoverviewSource:WorldBankCommodityPriceForecastSource:WoodMackenzie-15%CompanyOverviewIndustry&CompetitorsFinancialAnalysisValuationRiskAnalysisConclusion0200040006000800010000199920022005200820112014E2017E2020EUSD/tCopperpricedecrease2012KGHMcashextractioncostIndustryoverviewSource:WorldBankCommodityPriceForecast-15%QE1*QE2**Copper108%20%Silver64%81%*(11/2008-03/2010)**(08/2010-06/2011)QEpositiveeffectsoncopperandsilverpricesCompanyOverviewIndustry&CompetitorsFinancialAnalysisValuationRiskAnalysisConclusion35.231.6BHPBillitonAngloAmericanKGHMKGHMvs.CompetitorsCodelcoSouthernCopperFreeportMcMoRanXstrataRioTintoRAONorilskAntofagasta1234567891093.258.255.818.117.09.18.9ResourcebaseQuadraacquisition(mnt)after37.50.0%0.5%1.0%1.5%2.0%020406080SCCOFCXKGHMANTOFMKAZKGHMbestqualityoforeCopperbasein2011mnt(LHS)Oregradein2011(RHS)0%20%40%60%EBITDAmargin2012ENImargin2012EInlineprofitabilityKGHMpeers'medianSource:Companydata0%20%40%60%80%2008200920102011PersistentlyhigherROEKGHMROEpeers'medianROEFinancialAnalysisCompanyOverviewIndustry&CompetitorsFinancialAnalysisValuationRiskAnalysisConclusionInternationalexpansionimprovesfinancialpositionCapExwilltranslateintoproductionSource:Teamestimates,CompanydataCapExvs.productionCashextractioncostvs.EBITDA05001000150020002500300025%30%35%40%45%50%2012E2013E2014E2015E2016E2017E2018ECashextractioncostin$/t(RHS)EBITDAmargin(LHS)KGHMwillsignificantlyincreaseitspipelineFallingcashextractioncostwillimproveEBITDAmargin300,000400,000500,000600,000700,0002013E2014E2015E2016E2017EVictoriaAfton-AjaxSierraGordaCarlotaFrankeRobinsonMcCreedyWestDomesticproductionMorrisonDetailedcopperproductionint01002003004005006007000.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.52013E2014E2015E2016E2017ECapExinPLNbn(LHS)Productioninkt(RHS)DomesticUSD/PLNrate=3.30SierraGordaCompanyOverviewIndustry&CompetitorsFinancialAna