PPT06贴现现金流量估价

ChapterMcGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright©2006byTheMcGraw-HillCompanies,Inc.Allrightsreserved.6•DiscountedCashFlowValuation6-1KeyConceptsandSkills•Beabletocomputethefuturevalueofmultiplecashflows•Beabletocomputethepresentvalueofmultiplecashflows•Beabletocomputeloanpayments•Beabletofindtheinterestrateonaloan•Understandhowinterestratesarequoted•Understandhowloansareamortizedorpaidoff6-2ChapterOutline•FutureandPresentValuesofMultipleCashFlows•ValuingLevelCashFlows:AnnuitiesandPerpetuities•ComparingRates:TheEffectofCompounding•LoanTypesandLoanAmortization6-3MultipleCashFlows–FutureValueExample6.1•Findthevalueatyear3ofeachcashflowandaddthemtogether.•Today(year0CF):3N;8I/Y;-7000PV;CPTFV=8817.98•Year1CF:2N;8I/Y;-4000PV;CPTFV=4665.60•Year2CF:1N;8I/Y;-4000PV;CPTFV=4320•Year3CF:value=4,000•Totalvaluein3years=8817.98+4665.60+4320+4000=21,803.58•Valueatyear4:1N;8I/Y;-21803.58PV;CPTFV=23,547.876-4MultipleCashFlows–FVExample2•Supposeyouinvest$500inamutualfundtodayand$600inoneyear.Ifthefundpays9%annually,howmuchwillyouhaveintwoyears?•Year0CF:2N;-500PV;9I/Y;CPTFV=594.05•Year1CF:1N;-600PV;9I/Y;CPTFV=654.00•TotalFV=594.05+654.00=1248.056-5MultipleCashFlows–Example2Continued•Howmuchwillyouhavein5yearsifyoumakenofurtherdeposits?•Firstway:•Year0CF:5N;-500PV;9I/Y;CPTFV=769.31•Year1CF:4N;-600PV;9I/Y;CPTFV=846.95•TotalFV=769.31+846.95=1616.26•Secondway–usevalueatyear2:•3N;-1248.05PV;9I/Y;CPTFV=1616.266-6MultipleCashFlows–FVExample3•Supposeyouplantodeposit$100intoanaccountinoneyearand$300intotheaccountinthreeyears.Howmuchwillbeintheaccountinfiveyearsiftheinterestrateis8%?•Year1CF:4N;-100PV;8I/Y;CPTFV=136.05•Year3CF:2N;-300PV;8I/Y;CPTFV=349.92•TotalFV=136.05+349.92=485.976-7MultipleCashFlows–PresentValueExample6.3•FindthePVofeachcashflowsandaddthem•Year1CF:N=1;I/Y=12;FV=200;CPTPV=-178.57•Year2CF:N=2;I/Y=12;FV=400;CPTPV=-318.88•Year3CF:N=3;I/Y=12;FV=600;CPTPV=-427.07•Year4CF:N=4;I/Y=12;FV=800;CPTPV=-508.41•TotalPV=178.57+318.88+427.07+508.41=1432.936-8Example6.3Timeline01234200400600800178.57318.88427.07508.411432.936-9MultipleCashFlowsUsingaSpreadsheet•YoucanusethePVorFVfunctionsinExceltofindthepresentvalueorfuturevalueofasetofcashflows•Settingthedataupishalfthebattle–ifitissetupproperly,thenyoucanjustcopytheformulas•ClickontheExceliconforanexample6-10MultipleCashFlows–PVAnotherExample•Youareconsideringaninvestmentthatwillpayyou$1000inoneyear,$2000intwoyearsand$3000inthreeyears.Ifyouwanttoearn10%onyourmoney,howmuchwouldyoubewillingtopay?•N=1;I/Y=10;FV=1000;CPTPV=-909.09•N=2;I/Y=10;FV=2000;CPTPV=-1652.89•N=3;I/Y=10;FV=3000;CPTPV=-2253.94•PV=909.09+1652.89+2253.94=4815.926-11MultipleUnevenCashFlows–UsingtheCalculator•Anotherwaytousethefinancialcalculatorforunevencashflowsistousethecashflowkeys•PressCFandenterthecashflowsbeginningwithyear0.•Youhavetopressthe“Enter”keyforeachcashflow•Usethedownarrowkeytomovetothenextcashflow•The“F”isthenumberoftimesagivencashflowoccursinconsecutiveperiods•UsetheNPVkeytocomputethepresentvaluebyenteringtheinterestrateforI,pressingthedownarrowandthencompute•ClearthecashflowkeysbypressingCFandthenCLRWork6-12Decisions,Decisions•Yourbrokercallsyouandtellsyouthathehasthisgreatinvestmentopportunity.Ifyouinvest$100today,youwillreceive$40inoneyearand$75intwoyears.Ifyourequirea15%returnoninvestmentsofthisrisk,shouldyoutaketheinvestment?•UsetheCFkeystocomputethevalueoftheinvestment•CF;CF0=0;C01=40;F01=1;C02=75;F02=1•NPV;I=15;CPTNPV=91.49•No–thebrokerischargingmorethanyouwouldbewillingtopay.6-13SavingForRetirement•Youareofferedtheopportunitytoputsomemoneyawayforretirement.Youwillreceivefiveannualpaymentsof$25,000eachbeginningin40years.Howmuchwouldyoubewillingtoinvesttodayifyoudesireaninterestrateof12%?•Usecashflowkeys:•CF;CF0=0;C01=0;F01=39;C02=25000;F02=5;NPV;I=12;CPTNPV=1084.716-14SavingForRetirementTimeline012…394041424344000…025K25K25K25K25KNoticethattheyear0cashflow=0(CF0=0)Thecashflowsyears1–39are0(C01=0;F01=39)Thecashflowsyears40–44are25,000(C02=25,000;F02=5)6-15QuickQuiz–PartI•Supposeyouarelookingatthefollowingpossiblecashflows:Year1CF=$100;Years2and3CFs=$200;Years4and5CFs=$300.Therequireddiscountrateis7%•Whatisthevalueofthecashflowsatyear5?•Whatisthevalueofthecashflowstoday?•Whatisthevalueofthecashflowsatyear3?6-16AnnuitiesandPerpetuitiesDefined•Annuity–finiteseriesofequalpaymentsthatoccuratregularintervals•Ifthefirstpaymentoccursattheendoftheperiod,itiscalledanordinaryannuity•Ifthefirstpaymentoccursatthebeginningoftheperiod,itiscalledanannuitydue•Perpetuity–infiniteseriesofequalpayments6-17AnnuitiesandPerpetuities–BasicFormulas•Perpetuity:PV=C/r•Annuities:rrCFVrrCPVtt1)1()1(116-18AnnuitiesandtheCalculator•YoucanusethePMTkeyonthecalculatorfortheequalpayment•Thesignconventionstillholds•Ordinaryannuityversusannuitydue•Youcanswitchyourcalculatorbetweenthetwotypesbyusingthe2ndBGN2ndSetontheTIBA-IIPlus•Ifyousee“BGN”or“Begin”inthedisplayofyourcalculator,youhaveitsetforanannuitydue•Mostproblemsareordinaryannuities6-19Annuity–Example6.5•YouborrowmoneyTODAYsoyouneedtocomputethepresentvalue.•48N;1I/Y;