16 人口增长与人力资本经济增长模型

·196112——1y∗y1y2y01p2p∗ppy340302010018301840~18501890~1910‰21990193.5%3%0.5%2%192050:(1%2.0—3.0%)A1%2—3%1—2%B2.0-2.5%102030405001900195019651970BABA‰3·TheodoreW.Schultz1902–19981927SouthDakotaState19301930—43194319611979Mostofthepeopleintheworldarepoor,soifweknewtheeconomicsofbeingpoor,wewouldknowmuchoftheeconomicsthatreallymatters.Mostoftheworld'spoorpeopleearntheirlivingfromagriculture,soifweknewtheeconomicsofagriculture,wewouldknowmuchoftheeconomicsofbeingpoor.……Thedecisivefactorsofproductioninimprovingthewelfareofpoorpeoplearenotspace,energyandcropland;thedecisivefactoristheimprovementinpopulationquality.——quotedfrom“TheEconomicsofBeingPoor”byTheodoreW.SchultztheLecturetothememoryofAlfredNobel,December8,1979††1DeccanPlateauSouthIndiaRift1970193233007590bushels193232:——————3————()123123——4—(PranabBardhanandChristopherR.Udry:DevelopmentMicroeconomics,PP.123-131,OxfordUniversityPress,1999)1∫∞−0)(dtcUettρ12),,(ttttSUKFY=2(),1)1(γ1=++UESHES=+HEγ=HS)1(γ−=HU−=1))(,1,)1((HKHHFY−−=γ33))(,1,)1((3HKHHF−−=γρ4))(,1,)1(()())(,1,)1(()(21HKHHFHwHKHHFHwUs−−=−−=γγ5τγτdHwHweHwUsHrs))()(()(10)(−=∫−)(Hr46ρ≥)(Hrusww−(1)(2)∗Hρ=∗)(Hr∗HHρ)(Hr00=→UHwLim700→sHwLim0∗H5:uuwc=(8)sswc=(9)ucuaccacswγ)(acT∫=−)(0)(acTsautwdtcweγρ10ac∫∫∞−−+)(0)()()(aaacTscTtatcdtcUedtcUeMaxρρ11uawc9∗cdtcUedtcUedtcUeutscTtcTt)()()(0)()(0∫∫∫∞−∞−∗−≤+∗∗ρρρ70H∗c)(swγ1212H∗≤HH∗≤HH6——123