摩根士丹利中国-月度手册中国资本货物（PDF21页）

[e-mail]@[e-mail]@morganstanley.comAttractiveMORGANSTANLEYASIALIMITED+KevinLuo,CFAEQUITYANALYST+8522239-1527CoreyChan,CFAEQUITYANALYST+8522848-5911ThomasZhangRESEARCHASSOCIATE+8522239-1883ShelleyWangRESEARCHASSOCIATE+8523963-0047ChinaIndustrialsAsiaPacificIndustryViewMonthlyChartbook–ChinaCapitalGoodsMonthlyChartbook–ChinaCapitalGoodsAugust2017:TransportationInfrastructureFAIDeceleratedto9.0%YoY;ConstructionMachineryandHeavyTruckSalesRemainedStrongOverallfixedassetinvestment(FAI)growthdeceleratedto5.0%YoYinAugustfrom6.9%YoYinJuly.8M17FAIgrowthwas7.8%YoY(vs.8.3%YoYgrowthfor7M17).TransportationinfrastructureFAIgrowthdeceleratedto9.0%YoYinAugust(vs.18.1%YoYinJuly).AccordingtotheNationalBureauofStatistics(NBS),railwayFAIincreased10.2%YoYinAugust(vs.9.2%YoYinJuly)andup4.2%YoYin8M17.Also,theMinistryofTransport(MoT)saidthathighwayinvestmentrose21.6%YoYinAugust(vs.22.8%YoYinJuly).RailwayfreighttransportdemandmaintainedstronggrowthinAugust,withfreighttrafficup13.1%YoY(up15.3%YoYin8M17,vs.-1%YoYin2016)andfreightturnoverup13.2%YoY(up17.5%YoYin8M17,vs.flatYoYin2016).Highwayfreightturnoverincreased12.0%YoYinAugust,andup10.2%YoYin8M17(vs.5.6%YoYin2016).Propertynewstartsrecoveredto5.3%YoYgrowthinAugust(from4.9%YoYdeclineinJuly),asconstructionresumedwhenweatherconditionsimproved.Propertysalesgrowthalsoreacceleratedto4.3%YoYinAugust(from2.0%YoYinJuly).However,ourpropertyteamexpectspropertysalestoslowdowninthemediumterm,duetotighteningmeasuresinlower-tiercities.ManufacturingFAIgrowthacceleratedto2.7%YoYinAugust,upfrom+1.5%YoYinJuly.8M17manufacturingFAIgrowthwas4.5%YoY(vs.+4.8%YoYgrowthfor7M17).Constructionmachineryandheavytruckssawresilientdemandinlowseason:DespitethetraditionallowseasoninAugust,excavatorsalesrose99%YoYinAugust(up101%YoYin8M17),wheelloadersalesrose74%YoYinAugust(up41%YoYin8M17),andheavytrucksalesrose90%YoYinAugust(up75%YoYin8M17),indicatingcontinuedstrengthinconstructionnewstartsin2H17.MorganStanleydoesandseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinMorganStanleyResearch.Asaresult,investorsshouldbeawarethatthefirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofMorganStanleyResearch.InvestorsshouldconsiderMorganStanleyResearchasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.Foranalystcertificationandotherimportantdisclosures,refertotheDisclosureSection,locatedattheendofthisreport.+=Analystsemployedbynon-U.S.affiliatesarenotregisteredwithFINRA,maynotbeassociatedpersonsofthememberandmaynotbesubjecttoNASD/NYSErestrictionsoncommunicationswithasubjectcompany,publicappearancesandtradingsecuritiesheldbyaresearchanalystaccount.1September20,201710:00AMGMTValuationCompsExhibit1:ValuationcompsCompanyMSClosingClosingMktCap.NameRatingCcy9/19/17USD(Mn)2017E2018E2017E2018E2017E2018E2017E2018E2017E2018E2017E2018EEngineeringandConstruction601668.SSCSCECOWCNY9.8345,24927%20%8.16.81.51.24.03.63.3%4.4%20.9%21.4%1829.HKCMECOWHKD4.782,5509%15%7.26.31.00.9-3.8-3.35.5%6.4%15.0%15.8%002081.SZGoldMantisOWCNY11.434,65739%39%12.99.32.52.07.44.30.8%1.1%23.4%26.9%1186.HKCRCC-HOWHKD9.9417,28116%13%7.06.20.80.74.44.92.1%2.4%12.3%12.6%601186.SSCRCC-AOWCNY12.3225,83216%13%9.88.61.11.06.15.51.4%1.6%12.3%12.6%0390.HKCRG-HOWHKD6.5519,34227%13%8.47.40.90.84.64.31.4%1.8%11.7%12.0%601390.SSCRG-AEWCNY8.8731,28527%13%12.811.31.41.27.06.51.1%1.2%11.7%12.0%1800.HKCCCC-HOWCNY10.0422,48316%13%7.36.40.80.74.94.72.3%2.8%11.7%12.0%601800.SSCCCC-AEWCNY15.8141,57016%13%12.811.31.41.38.78.31.5%1.7%11.7%12.0%1618.HKMCC-HOWHKD2.606,42824%29%7.55.80.70.69.88.53.4%4.4%11.7%12.0%601618.SSMCC-AEWCNY5.1415,17124%29%17.813.91.71.59.88.51.4%1.8%11.7%12.0%600820.SSSTECEWCNY9.764,78115%-4%16.116.71.61.58.68.81.9%1.8%10.7%9.6%Average20%17%10.69.21.31.15.95.42.2%2.6%14.4%14.8%Median24%13%9.18.01.21.16.55.21.7%1.8%11.7%12.0%RollingStockHOLI.OHollysysOWUSD20.77974-12%39%14.910.71.61.49.76.40.7%0.9%8.7%15.0%3898.HKTimesElectricOWHKD43.406,58512%22%13.210.82.32.08.66.71.5%1.8%20.5%21.4%3969.HKCRSCOWHKD5.976,80419%16%12.210.51.81.66.35.22.0%2.4%16.7%17.1%1766.HKCRRC-HOWHKD6.9225,4370%31%14.811.31.31.26.06.93.6%4.7%10.8%11.8%601766.SSCRRC-AUWCNY9.8643,3770%31%23.618.12.12.09.77.72.1%2.8%10.8%11.8%Average4%28%15.712.31.81.68.06.62.0%2.5%13.5%15.4%Median0%31%14.810.81.81.68.66.72.0%2.4%10.8%15.0%IndustrialAutomation300124.SZInovanceOWCNY27.707,11822%24%40.532.78.87.932.926.31.4%1.7%24.2%27.0%002008.SZHan'sLaserEWCNY39.836,64234%26%41.933.17.06.129.523.80.7%0.9%19.1%21.2%HOLI.OHollysysOWUSD20.77974-12%39%14.910.71.61.49.76.40.7%0.9%8.7%15.0%300024.SZSiasunRobotEWCNY21.245,11433%34%60.845.45.55.045.534.00.3%0.4%9.8%12.2%002527.SZSTEPUWCNY11.261,02819%26%34.227.22.42.318.015.40.9%1.1%7.5%9.0%Average19%30%38.529.85.14.527.121.20.8%1.0%13.8%16.9%Median22%26%40.532.75.55.029.523.80.7%0.9%9.8%15.0%Machinery,Heavytruck2338.HKWeichai-HOWHKD9.159,31892%-7%13.114.11.81.76.44.94.4%4.0%14.8%12.5%000338.SZWeichai-AOWCNY7.509,27992%-7%12.913.91.71.75.95.54.4%4.1%14.8%12.5%3808.HKSinotrukOWHKD10.623,680330%4%10.8