永续盘存法核算资本存量的两种途径及其比较

263Vol.26No.3Statistics&InformationForum20113Mar.,2011永续盘存法核算资本存量的两种途径及其比较向蓉美1,叶樊妮2(1.,610074;2.,610041):,,,:;;:F222.33:A:1007-3116(2011)03-0020-07,;,[1]22-78,,,,,:2010-08-12;:2011-01-13:!∀(10BJ009);!∀:,,,,,:;,,,,:OntheVarianceEstimationoftheStratumMeaninStratifiedSamplingWhenMeasurementErrorExistsWANGKelin(FacultyofEconomicsTradeandStatistics,GuangdongUniversityofBusinessStudies,Guangzhou510320,China)Abstract:Themethodsofusingmodelstostudytherelationshipamongmulti-variablearepopularintheworld,butthesedonotdowellwhenitcomestoonlyonevariable.Bringingintomeasurementerrorinformation,thepaperdesignsthevarianceestimationofthestratummeaninstratifiedsamplinganddeducestheformulaofmeasuringmeasurementerrorquantitatively.Bythisway,thepapercanestimatethevarianceofthestratummeaninstratifiedsamplingwhenmeasurementerrorexists.Thepaperexploresthehouseholds#consumerdata,including3citiesortowninGuangdongprovince,andmeasuresthemeasurementerrorandthedegreeoftheinfluencequantitatively,andamendstheestimationtakingnoaccountofmeasurementerror.Keywords:measurementerror;surveycondition;truevalue(:)20,;,[2-7],,,一永续盘存法的基本原理()(PerpetualInventoryApproach,PIM)(Goldsmith)1951(Christensen,LauritsR.,Jorgenson,DaleW.,1973),,,,,,,,[8]44-52(),,,,d(),,1,,,0,=0,1,2,∃:d(0)=1d()-d(-1)%0lim&∋d()=0(1)d(),K(t):K(t)=(∋=0d())I(t-)(2)I(t-),-1m(),:m()=d(-1)-d()=-[d()-d(-1)](3),,(),:()=m(1)(-1)+m(2)(-2)+∃+m()(0)(=0,1,2,∃)(4),,R(t)t,:R(t)=(∋=1())[K(t-)-K(t--1)](5)(3):K(t)-K(t-1)=I(t)+(∋=1[d()-d(-1)])I(t-)=I(t)-(∋=1m())I(t-)(6)R(t)=(∋=1m())I(t-),:K(t)=K(t-1)+I(t)-R(t)(7)d(),,:1.∗单驾马车+模式,L,0,,,,,2.线性递减模式,21,:,3.几何递减模式,,,,4.双曲线模式,,(),,,,,,,,:P(t)=(∋=0d()−+1s=111+r(t+s)PK(t++1)(t=0,1,2,∃)(8)P(t)t,PK(t)t,d(),−+1s=111+r(t+s),r(t)t(8),:P(t)-[1+r(t)]P(t-1)=-PK(t)-(∋=1[d()-d(-1)]−+1s=111+r(t+s)PK(t+)(9)PD(t),:PD(t)=(∋=1m()−+1s=111+r(t+s)PK(t+)P(t)-[1+r(t)]P(t-1)=-PK(t)+PD(t)(10)D(t),:PD(t)=D(t))P(t)(11)D(t)=PD(t)P(t)=(∋=1m()−+1s=111+r(t+s)PK(t+)(∋=1d()−+1s=111+r(t+s)PK(t+),:PD(t)=(∋=1(1-)-1−+1s=111+r(t+s)PK(t+)=P(t)(12),D(t)==,二永续盘存法下的资本存量核算途径,,:,;,(),,11,22:,,:,,;,,,,,:,1[9];,,[1]22-78(),,222:,:,;,;,,,,,,,-;,(),,,,,,,12:,,,;,,,,,,,,,:,,,,;,-,,,:,;,,,,23,:三对中国资本存量净额的估计():NKt=NKt-1+It-CFCt(13)NKtt,CFCtt,IttCFCt,D(t)==,:CFCt=PD(t)=(∋=1(1-)-1−+1s=111+r(t+s)PK(t+)=P(t)NKt=NKt-1+It-NKt-1=It+(1-)NKt-1(14),,(),NK(t)-AP(t)I(t-),:NK(t)=(∋=0AP()I(t-)(15),(,),1.1:(1990)19521802.47940.0019603391.611740.8619653947.241975.5619704665.542266.9219757282.323731.38198010661.226025.34198517806.6912066.50199035185.0535185.05199137815.6030845.6139197.6341759.1533775.3442918.21199559184.8850253.2463069.25114082.0695559.92119937.892000105176.4386441.58109245.52217371.36177672.09224805.342001116930.3195843.89121362.14242059.11197262.86250167.532002130557.34107241.97135745.60270895.43221285.75280581.822003146541.19122966.31154795.46310446.51259891.59327974.872004168315.53142852.11178526.40374739.82318616.47399710.942005196840.98168733.18209024.57444561.19379104.54471735.842006234434.17200383.35246327.12536936.15454314.03560683.412007279947.47238759.11291600.51665079.15561047.06687602.432008320190.51283474.93344756.35815615.58725754.13886010.032009368446.97345875.99417506.27908611.84856195.791036319.5724.,!(1949-2004)∀2006-2010!∀,1:1952,2009,(),,,,40,40;19801941,1980,,,,:,(3)3:;,,,,,;,,,,,,44?,,,;,,5,,:,,,,,,,:,,,5,25,:四结论:,:,,,,,,,:[1](OECD).:[M].,.:,2004.[2],.[J].,1997(1).[3],,.[J].,2002(2).[4],.K[J].,2003(7).[5],.[J].,2003(5).[6],.[J].,2005(12).[7],.[J].,2005(3).[8].[M].,.:,1989.[9]GwennalleBrilhault.RetropolationoftheGFCFSeriesandCalculationofFixedCapitalStocksontheESA-95BasisintheFrenchNationalAccounts[J].INSEEDocuments,2002(4).OntheTwoApproachesandTheirComparisononCapitalStocksBasedonPerpetualInventoryMethodXIANGRongmei1,YEFanni2(1.SchoolofStatistics,SouthwesternUniversityofFinanceandEconomics,Chengdu610074,China;2.SchoolofManagement,SouthwestUniversityforNationalities,Chengdu610041,China)Abstract:PerpetualInventoryMethod(PIM)istheprimarymeansofcapitalstocks.Weneedthinkofrelation,efficiency,renewdemandrentalpriceanddepreciationofcapitalwhileaccounting.ThepaperstudiestwoapproachesofcapitalstocksbasedonPIM:thetraditionalwaysandnewways.Alsothepaperdiscriminatesthemwhichthenewwayisassumedtobegeometricdeclineandhyperbolicdecline.Keywords:perpetualinventorymethod;capitalstocks;accounting(:)26